This episode features Nitin A. Gokhale, one of South Asia’s leading strategic affairs analysts, who joins co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down the ongoing conflict along the India-Pakistan border, offering expert insight into its origins, recent triggers and global stakes.

The conflict’s roots trace back to the 1947 partition of India and the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which has sparked four wars between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Tensions reignited recently after a terrorist attack in Kashmir, where militants targeted and killed Hindu tourists. Pakistani terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed are allegedly supported by the Pakistani military and intelligence services.

In retaliation, India conducted strikes against terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and, for the first time, across the Kashmir border into Pakistan’s homeland. India emphasized that its response was targeted, non-escalatory, and focused solely on terrorist infrastructure, aiming to avoid a broader military confrontation.

Gokhale explains that Pakistan’s internal instability--including insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, strained relations with the Taliban and political unrest--may have influenced the timing of the attack. The Pakistani military, facing low public confidence and political challenges, may have sought to rally domestic support by provoking a crisis with India.

With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, the stakes are high. Gokhale suggests that international pressure and Pakistan’s internal weaknesses could create an off-ramp for de-escalation. India’s careful messaging and restraint are designed to reinforce deterrence without inviting a full-scale war.

The discussion explores the influence of China, Russia, the United States, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. While India insists on bilateral solutions, outside actors may quietly urge restraint to protect their own interests in regional stability and economic ties.

The episode delves into the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, a critical agreement for Pakistan’s agriculture. India’s move to withhold hydrological data and potentially control water flows adds another layer of pressure on Pakistan.

Gokhale contextualizes India’s actions within Prime Minister Modi’s security philosophy: resolute on the border, reasonable in diplomacy. Modi’s approach favors decisive retaliation against cross-border terrorism while avoiding unnecessary escalation.

The India-Pakistan border conflict is not just a regional issue–it has global implications due to the risk of nuclear escalation, the involvement of major powers and the precedent it sets for responding to state-sponsored terrorism. Understanding the dynamics at play is essential for anyone interested in international security, South Asian geopolitics or global peace.

👉 Follow Nitin's analysis of this conflict and South Asia security at StratNewsGlobal.com, or check out his book, Securing India the Modi Way.

🔥 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

How will Australia's dramatic election results impact its domestic, regional and global political and economic affairs? In this special episode–originally aired live–hosts Jim Carouso and Ray Powell are joined by special guests Mick McNeill and Michael Rowland for an in-depth discussion on Australia's changing political landscape and the election’s far-reaching implications, including:

• A comprehensive breakdown of the Australian Labor Party’s decisive win, and what’s next for a reeling Liberal-National Party coalition as it faces the implications of its dramatic collapse at the polls.
• An explanation of how Australia’s compulsory voting and preferential (ranked-choice) ballot helps the country avoid extremes.
• Why reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump played an outsized role in Australia’s political environment.
• How these political shifts will affect Australia’s international business and trade relationships–especially with the United States–during a time of global uncertainty.
• How the results will impact the country’s ongoing transition to renewable energy sources and its defense planning.

The discussion provides valuable context for understanding Australia's position in the Indo-Pacific region and how recent political developments might influence regional stability and economic cooperation. Our expert guests offer unique perspectives on how businesses and policymakers should navigate this changing environment.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Paul Everingham joins Ray and Jim to explain that liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia is expected to nearly double by 2050. The initial growth will be driven by North Asia (especially China), with South Asia and Southeast Asia becoming the main growth centers after 2035. This surge is tied to Asia’s rapid economic development, growing energy needs, and the region’s transition from coal.

Asia is projected to account for 50% of global economic growth and a growing share of global emissions. Addressing energy needs and emissions in Asia is crucial for global climate goals and humanitarian progress, as many Asian countries still rely heavily on coal and lack access to clean energy and modern amenities.

Paul describes LNG as more than just a bridge to renewables—it’s vital for economic and national security, and asserts that LNG is cleaner than coal and oil and provides reliable "baseload" and "peaking" power, which renewables like wind and solar currently can’t match due to their intermittency and storage limitations.

The Biden administration’s pause on US LNG export facilities was discussed, with Paul arguing that such moves are more political than scientific. He stresses that immediate transitions from coal to renewables aren’t feasible in Asia due to infrastructure and storage constraints, and that gas is essential for meeting Paris climate commitments.

Despite a slowing economy and population decline, China’s energy demand is rising as it seeks to reduce new coal plant construction and diversify gas imports away from reliance on Russia. China is investing in both renewables and LNG to ensure energy security.

The conversation highlights that global energy demand is rising, not just shifting. Coal use is at record highs, and the US is facing new surges in energy demand due to AI and data centers. Paul advocates for an "all of the above" approach, including nuclear, gas, and renewables, to meet growing needs.

Paul says LNG offers more flexible supply options than pipeline gas, reducing dependency on single suppliers. However, building out LNG infrastructure is capital-intensive and complex. The US, Qatar, and Australia are the dominant LNG exporters, but the US is expected to become the leading supplier by 2040, especially as Asian demand grows.

Qatar is a major player due to its vast gas reserves and strategic, conservative development. Indonesia and Malaysia were early LNG exporters, but their fields are now in decline. The US, with its massive shale gas reserves, is poised to shape global markets, especially as new fields come online.

The vulnerability of LNG supply lines to blockades (e.g., Taiwan) and the strategic importance of the South China Sea’s energy resources were discussed. China’s control over disputed areas impacts the ability of countries like the Philippines and Vietnam to develop their own gas fields.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky.

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

Follow Jim Carouso on LinkedIn.

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.