In Ep. 130, Ray and Jim sit down with Clive Hamilton, one of the world's leading experts on Chinese Communist Party political influence operations. Hamilton is the author of the groundbreaking books Silent Invasion: China's Influence in Australia and Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party Is Reshaping the World.

In this compelling podcast, Hamilton shares the dramatic story behind Silent Invasion - a book so controversial that three major Australian publishers rejected it for fear of Beijing's retaliation. He reveals the personal costs of exposing CCP interference, from cyber-attacks that destroyed his laptop to being banned from China and labeled a "black hand" by Beijing's official media.

Hamilton breaks down how the CCP's United Front Work Department orchestrates political warfare through elite capture, diaspora mobilization, and covert influence in universities, media, and politics. He explains how Australia's 2018 counter-interference laws and Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme (FITS) emerged as a democratic defense - and evaluates their real-world effectiveness, including enforcement challenges and necessary reforms.

The conversation explores critical lessons for the Philippines and other Indo-Pacific nations facing similar CCP pressure, especially regarding South China Sea tensions. Hamilton offers practical advice on designing swift, effective counter-interference legislation while protecting diaspora communities from discrimination.

This is essential listening for anyone interested in China’s strategy, foreign influence operations, national security, democratic resilience, and Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

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Japan’s February 8th snap election delivered a historic result: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a rare two‑thirds supermajority in the powerful lower house, giving her the strongest mandate any postwar leader has enjoyed to date. That will sharply increase what she can do on economic policy, defense readiness, and how Japan responds to pressures from both the US and China.

​Jake Schlesinger - President and CEO of the US‑Japan Foundation and a longtime Japan-watcher - joins the show to explain why this election was a potential turning point in a political system often seen as stable to the point of stagnation. He argues that while Japan’s politics have frequently been defined by weak and short-lived prime ministers and cautious consensus, this vote creates the conditions for unusually decisive leadership.

Schlesinger describes an electorate focused less on the LDP’s history of political ethics controversies and more on daily economic pressure combined with a sense that Takaichi herself represents a fresh face. The episode unpacks how Japanese voters can be skeptical about big fiscal promises while still rewarding the leader who seems most willing to speak directly to pocketbook issues like inflation, wages, and household strain.

The conversation shifts to geopolitics, as Schlesinger highlights how China’s recent threats and coercive signaling appeared to backfire, strengthening public support for a leader who stands up rather than backing down. He frames this as a meaningful change in Japan’s public mood: a country once inclined to avoid antagonizing neighbors is increasingly prepared to accept friction if it’s tied to national security - particularly around Taiwan, a Chinese invasion of which Takaichi has warned would pose an existential crisis for Japan.

The episode also examines what this election mandate could mean for the US‑Japan alliance. While people-to-people ties remain strong, Schlesinger notes that Tokyo is navigating a complex era of “America-First” politics - simultaneously hugging the US closer while hedging its bets with other regional partners like Australia, India, the Philippines, and South Korea. Finally, the discussion touches on constitutional constraints on Japan’s military and whether this supermajority could finally open the door to a formal revision.

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In this powerful episode, Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Yaqiu Wang, a leading human rights advocate and fellow at the University of Chicago’s Forum for Free Inquiry and Expression. Born and raised in China, Wang offers a rare, insider perspective on what it really means to live under Xi Jinping’s surveillance state - and why the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) domestic repression is no longer just a “China problem,” but a direct threat to global freedom and Indo-Pacific security.

Most Westerners assume Chinese citizens have struck a “grand bargain” - trading freedom for economic prosperity. Wang dismantles this myth, revealing a population that never agreed to this trade-off but is coerced into silence by a sophisticated apparatus of fear. She explains how the CCP exports its model of digital authoritarianism to countries across Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, embedding surveillance tools into “smart city” projects that threaten democratic norms worldwide.

Key Topics Discussed:

• The Surveillance State: Wang describes the psychological toll of living in a society where every digital interaction is monitored, leading to deep-seated self-censorship that follows Chinese citizens even after they emigrate to the West.
• The WeChat Trap: Discover how the “super app” WeChat functions as a Trojan horse for CCP influence, effectively holding the Chinese diaspora hostage by controlling their primary news source and connection to family back home.
• Xinjiang & Human Rights: An in-depth look at the mass internment of Uyghurs, the predictive policing algorithms that flag innocent behaviors (like buying gym weights) as terrorist threats, and the heartbreak of watching the U.S. retreat from its role as a global champion of human rights.
• Transnational Repression: How Beijing’s reach extends far beyond its borders, harassing dissidents on foreign soil and pressuring foreign governments to silence critics.

Tune in to understand why the fight for human rights in China is inextricably linked to the national security of the United States and its allies.

About the Guest:

Yaqiu is a prominent researcher and activist who previously led China research at Human Rights Watch and Freedom House. She has testified before the U.S. Congress on issues ranging from internet censorship to women’s rights and continues to be a vocal advocate for the Chinese people despite personal risks.

👉 Learn more about Yaqiu’s work on her web site

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Is the global order collapsing, or can renewed American leadership still secure the Indo-Pacific? In Episode 127, Jim Carouso and Ray Powell sit down with Robert Blackwill, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and former U.S. Ambassador to India, to dissect his provocative new report, “America Revived: A Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership”.

Ambassador Blackwill argues that the United States faces its most dangerous international landscape since World War II. With a rising, authoritarian China determined to displace the U.S. as the dominant power in Asia, Blackwill contends that current competing strategies - from Restraint to Nationalism to “Trumpism” - are failing to meet the moment. Instead, he proposes a bold, hybrid grand strategy which he labels “Resolute Global Leadership”.

We dive deep into what this strategy would mean for the future of the Indo-Pacific. Blackwill makes the controversial case for explicitly “containing” Chinese power and stopping the erosion of U.S. influence in the region. He offers a candid critique of the current administration’s “revolutionary” approach, warning that incoherent messaging is destroying allied trust and fueling dangerous debates about nuclear proliferation in capitals like Tokyo and Seoul.

Key topics discussed:

• The China Challenge: Why Blackwill believes we must label China a “hostile peer competitor” and what “containment” actually looks like in the 21st century.
• Grand Strategy 101: Breaking down the failures of Liberal Internationalism and Primacy, and why a fusion of the two is necessary to survive.
• The Trump Factor: How a personalized, transactional foreign policy undermines extended deterrence and how allies can effectively push back.
• Restoring Trust: Can Washington rebuild credibility with partners like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines before it’s too late?

The future direction of U.S. grand strategy will define the security and economy of the entire Indo-Pacific for decades. Tune in to understand why the stakes have never been higher.

👉 Read the report: America Revived | Council on Foreign Relations

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China’s embassy in Manila has launched an unprecedented public campaign against Philippine government officials. In this episode, Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela - Beijing’s primary target - explains what’s at stake when foreign embassies publicly threaten democratic voices.

The controversy began when Tarriela posted images from a student presentation featuring AI-generated caricatures of Xi Jinping. China’s embassy called it “attacking and smearing Chinese leaders” and a “serious violation of China’s political dignity.” Beijing summoned the Philippine ambassador and demanded Tarriela “pay the price.” Tarriela refused to apologize, receiving backing from Philippine officials and strong public support - 94% of Filipinos support transparency efforts in the West Philippine Sea.

Tarriela identifies three reasons behind Beijing’s escalation: the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026 and transparency during regional meetings could expose Chinese actions to neighboring countries; China may want to influence the 2028 Philippine election by reducing focus on West Philippine Sea issues; and transparency prevents China from executing operations like illegal reclamation without immediate international scrutiny.

He describes coordination between the Chinese embassy and online accounts that amplify Beijing’s messaging with identical talking points - evidence of organized information operations. Tarriela also addresses allegations that our co-host, the SeaLight Foundation’s Ray Powell, is a U.S. agent providing him with money and instructions, while explaining why Powell’s documentation of Chinese activities across Southeast Asia challenges Beijing’s narrative.

Since Tarriela’s last podcast appearance in May 2024, Chinese Coast Guard vessels have moved closer to Philippine shores, now operating near Pangasinan, Ilocos, Mindoro, and Bataan. Meanwhile, transparency efforts have achieved measurable results: Filipino awareness of West Philippine Sea issues has grown significantly, and international embassies that previously avoided naming China now publicly identify Chinese actions.

Tarriela makes the case for deploying U.S. Coast Guard vessels rather than Navy warships to counter China’s gray-zone tactics, and explains why he continues speaking out despite personal attacks: “Standing up for our rights is the obligation of everybody. We owe this to our national heroes and to the next generation.”

In the post-interview banter, Ray and Jim discuss how the Chinese embassy has also targeted Ray personally for SeaLight’s investigation into Chinese influence over Mandarin-language media outlets in the Philippines. They explore parallels with Australia’s experience combating similar influence operations and debate how democracies can balance freedom of the press with transparency about foreign funding and direction of media organizations.

👉 Follow Jay Tarriela on X, @jaytaryela, or on LinkedIn

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On January 27, 2026, India and the European Union are expected to announce “the mother of all trade deals” - a historic Free Trade Agreement covering 25% of the world’s GDP. After decades of protectionism, India is pivoting fast, racing to sign deals with developed economies like the EU, UAE, and Australia while diversifying away from China. But why now? And where does this leave the US under Trump 2.0?

In this episode, Anuj Gupta, Managing Director of BowerGroupAsia (India) and former Chief of Staff to India’s Commerce Minister, takes us inside the room where these deals happen. We discuss:

• The Big Shift: Why 2014 was the turning point for India’s trade strategy and why they walked away from the RCEP trading bloc.

• The Pivot: Why India is suddenly rushing to sign FTAs with the West after years of hesitation.

• Geopolitics: How India balances Russian oil imports with EU trade ambitions and US strategic ties.

• The Future: Is India trying to be a bridge between blocs, or becoming a “third pole” in the global economy?

Whether you’re a business leader, policy watcher, or just curious about where the world economy is heading, this episode breaks down why India’s new playbook matters to you.

Anuj Gupta leads the India practice at BowerGroupAsia. A seasoned policy strategist, he previously served as Chief of Staff to India’s Minister for Commerce & Industry, where he helped shape key initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and India’s recent wave of FTAs. He has also led public policy for the Tata Group. Follow Anuj on LinkedIn or on X, @anujg

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• Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight

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• Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific

Is Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability China’s military or political warfare from within? J. Michael Cole—former Canadian intelligence officer, Senior Fellow with Global Taiwan Institute and author of “The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island Nation at the Center of the New Cold War”—reveals how Chinese Communist Party influence operations, Taiwan independence debates and political divisions threaten cross-strait stability more than invasion scenarios.

Taiwan’s Internal Security Crisis

Cole exposes how CCP proxies use cognitive warfare, espionage and co-optation to weaken Taiwan’s defense capabilities from within. Taiwan’s democracy creates a paradox: countering Chinese influence without becoming authoritarian. Opposition parties blocking defense spending increases—Taiwan aims for 5% GDP military spending—sends conflicting signals about Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense, weakening deterrence against Beijing.

Taiwan Identity & Independence Movements

Taiwan’s divisions trace to indigenous peoples, Japanese colonial rule (1895-1945, and post-1949 Kuomintang (KMT) arrival. Cole identifies two critical movements: Taidu (Taiwan independence) and Huadu (Republic of China supporters opposing Beijing annexation). United, they’d form a powerful defense against the Chinese pressure campaign, but real unity has been elusive.

Hong Kong’s Cautionary Tale

Beijing’s crushing of Hong Kong democracy under “one country, two systems” became China’s worst propaganda failure for Taiwan unification. Young Taiwanese watched personal connections to Hong Kong destroyed, solidifying opposition across the political spectrum, so that even the dovish KMT publicly rejects Chinese unification proposals.

Chinese Cognitive Warfare Success

While China failed to convince Taiwanese they’re Chinese—unification support remains below 5%—Beijing has succeeded at fostering divisions and increasing skepticism of America’s reliability as a defense partner. Internet content farms and co-opted politicians amplify CCP narratives from within, exploiting Taiwan democracy against itself.

The Greatest Threat: Accidental Escalation

Cole’s nightmare scenario isn’t invasion but normalized PLA presence near Taiwan. Chinese naval forces, drones, coast guard and maritime militia crowding Taiwan’s waters increase collision and miscommunication risks. Beijing stands ready to exploit incidents through disinformation, blame Taiwan, and then escalate in unpredictable ways.

Taiwan’s Defense Strategy Evolution

Taiwan has shifted from passive defense to counter-force capabilities: domestically produced anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles targeting China. This has required US approval, marking a major US Taiwan relations policy shift. Taiwan now emphasizes semiconductor supply chain criticality and first island chain security to make conflict consequences resonate globally.

Why Taiwan’s Democracy Matters

Cole’s 20-year Taiwan residence reflects the island’s resilience: a vibrant democracy thriving under constant Chinese military threat, successful despite isolation, and a model for defending democratic values without authoritarianism.

👉 Follow J. Michael Cole at the Global Taiwan Institute or on X at @jmichaelcole1

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The U.S.-India partnership has been a cornerstone of American Indo-Pacific strategy for two decades, but it’s now facing its most serious crisis. After bipartisan American efforts to bring India into closer partnership as a counterweight to China, President Trump has triggered the most dramatic deterioration in U.S.-India relations in a generation. What began with optimism in Delhi about Trump 2.0 has devolved into a breakdown of trust, escalating tariffs, and diplomatic miscalculation that threatens the entire architecture of Indo-Pacific security.​

In this essential episode, hosts Ray Powell (former U.S. military officer) and Jim Carouso (former U.S. diplomat) welcome back James Crabtree - distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, former Financial Times bureau chief for India, and author of the acclaimed book “The Billionaire Raj.” Drawing on his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The India That Trump Made,” Crabtree unpacks how two decades of strategic partnership have been upended in less than a year.​

What Happened?

India expected favorable treatment from Trump given Modi’s strong personal relationship with the president during his first term. Instead, they received 50% tariffs - first 25% on general goods, then another 25% for buying Russian oil, putting India’s tariff burden equal to China’s. Then came the Pakistan crisis: when India and Pakistan clashed in Operation Sindor, Trump claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire that India insists he didn’t actually broker. Trump’s perceived slight over not receiving sufficient credit has fueled ongoing tensions, while Pakistan successfully leveraged the moment through crypto deals, a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Trump, and high-level military diplomacy.​

Strategic Consequences

The Quad, the critical U.S.-Australia-India-Japan partnership, is essentially stalled, with a planned summit canceled and little energy for revival. India is now pursuing what Crabtree calls a “pivot to Europe,” seeking to replace American technology transfer, investment, and defense expertise with European alternatives. An EU-India summit in January will likely announce a long-negotiated trade deal, marking India’s shift toward multi-alignment rather than U.S. partnership.​

Meanwhile, Pakistan has successfully re-emerged as a regional player, signing security treaties with Saudi Arabia that include nuclear assurances and repositioning itself diplomatically after years in India’s shadow. Russia remains a “diminishing asset” for India due to supply unreliability and limited technological offerings, though Delhi still needs Moscow for defense systems like the S-400 and to prevent Russia from becoming a complete Chinese vassal state.​

India’s Future

Despite the diplomatic turbulence, India posted 8% GDP growth last quarter and remains on a positive economic trajectory, though still a developing country at $2,000-3,000 per capita income. Prime Minister Modi, now in his third term and 11 years in office, continues to dominate Indian politics and will likely seek a fourth term, cementing his status as the most significant political figure in independent Indian history. India’s “Make in India” defense ambitions are advancing slowly, with systems like the BrahMos missile finding export success in Southeast Asia, though India remains heavily import-dependent for military hardware.​

Can U.S.-India trust be rebuilt? Crabtree is pessimistic: “The trust that had been built up between the U.S. and India over a two-decade period has been destroyed”. The pro-American camp in Delhi that architected the strategic partnership has been undermined, while pro-Russia voices feel vindicated.

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