The Conditional Release Program

By: Jack the Insider and Joel Hill
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  • Summary

  • Welcome to The Conditional Release Program, a podcast that delves into the netherworld of cults, crims and con artists.

    Who would have thought a spicy chest cough would turn everyone so completely mad?

    Our weekly show covers the conspiracy theorists that created a 'shadow pandemic' of political idiocy and violent ideation within the fringe of politics.

    From time to time we get our hands even dirtier with true crime deep dives. Jack is a seasoned expert in the true crime genre, having written and spoken extensively about Roger Rogerson, Stan 'the man' Smith and, of course, the Fine Cotton Fiasco. In various episodes he guides us through the dark underbelly of Australian crime in his trademark storytelling style.

    The world is getting weird and we are getting weird with it. Let's watch as democracy crumbles into a smouldering heap - and take note of the kids carrying the matches and the metho.

    Hosted by Jack the Insider and Joel Hill with an occasional rotation of guests that generally share our distaste toward the lunatic fringe.
    All rights reserved.
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Episodes
  • Episode 185 - Post 2025 Federal Election Wrap

    Episode 185 - Post 2025 Federal Election Wrap
    May 7 2025
    MORE UNINTENTIONALLY FUNNY AI SLOP SHOWNOTES. Peter Hoistead? Thanks Gemini. Thanks listeners. We love you. Buy CBCo it's excellent beer. The Conditional Release Program - Episode 185: Federal Election 2025 Post-SpecialHosts: Joel Hill & Jack the Insider (Peter Hoistead)Overall Theme: A deep dive into the results and implications of the 2025 Australian Federal Election, focusing on Labor's historic victory, the Coalition's catastrophic loss, and the performance of minor parties and independents.Key Segments & Talking Points:(Part 1 - Approximate Timestamps based on original transcript, subject to adjustment)[00:00:00 - 00:01:23] Introduction & Election OverviewJoel laments being banned from betting on the election, particularly Labor's strong odds.Jack notes Joel would have won significantly, especially on Labor at $2.60.Historic Labor Win: Anthony "Albo" Albanese leads Labor to a significant victory.Libs sent into an "existential crisis."Albo is the first PM to be re-elected since John Howard in 2004.Largest Labor victory on a two-party preferred basis since John Curtin in 1943 (votes still being counted).Crucial Stat: The Albanese government is the only first-term government to have a swing towards it in Australian political history.[00:01:23 - 00:03:38] Significance of the Swing to LaborPrevious first-term governments (Howard '98, Hawke '84, Fraser '77, Whitlam '74, Menzies) all had swings against them when seeking a second term.Albo's government achieved an approximate 4% swing towards it (votes still being counted).Discussion points: Where it went right for Labor, and wrong for the Coalition, Greens, and Teals.Far-right "Cookers" performed terribly. Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FONY) might see minor representation.[00:03:38 - 00:05:11] Patreon & Sponsor Shout-outsReminder to support the podcast on Patreon: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (for as little as $5/month).CB Co. Beer: Praised for their IPA and new Hazy XPA. Competition to win $100,000. Use code CRP10 for 10% off at cbco.beer.[00:05:11 - 00:08:52] Polling Inaccuracies & Liberal OptimismReiteration of the ~4% swing to Labor.Comparison of final poll predictions vs. actual results:Freshwater: Labor 51.5% (was Liberal pollster, told Libs they were close).Newspoll: 52.5% (Labor used their private polling).Essential: 53.5%.YouGov: 52.2% - 52.9%.Polling companies significantly underestimated Labor's vote, especially those advising the Coalition.The misplaced optimism at Liberal Party HQ on election night.[00:08:52 - 00:16:00] Specific Seat Results & Labor GainsGilmore (NSW South Coast): Fiona Phillips (Labor) won 55-45 (3-4% swing to her), despite Andrew Constance (Liberal) being the favourite.Bennelong (Howard's old seat): Jeremy Laxail (Labor) won 59-41 against Scott Young (problematic Liberal candidate), a 10% swing to Labor.Parramatta: Andrew Charlton (Labor) won 62-38 (was 53.47 in 2022).Aston (Victoria): Labor won in a historic by-election previously, now a 4% swing to the Labor candidate, winning 53-47.Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) achieved an 8% swing, holding the seat 61-39.Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor, ex-cop & dolphin trainer) secured a 3% swing, now 56-44. Large Bhutanese diaspora noted.Leichhardt (FNQ): Labor's Matt Smith won 57-43 after Warren Entsch (LNP) retired (10% swing).Hunter (NSW): Dan Repiccioli (Labor) re-elected with 44% primary vote (5% swing on primary). Fended off Nats and One Nation (Stuart Bonds' inflated vote claims by "One Australia" on X).[00:16:00 - 00:18:49] Diversifying Parliament & Women in PoliticsPraise for non-lawyer backgrounds in Parliament (e.g., Dan Repiccioli, Sam Lim).Critique of the typical lawyer/staffer/union pathway.Labor's success in diversifying candidate backgrounds and increasing female representation.Liberals struggling with female representation despite some efforts. Discussion of potential quotas in the Liberal party and the backlash it would cause.Margaret Thatcher quote: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman."[00:18:49 - 00:27:26] The Teals: Mixed Results & ChallengesInitial appearance of a Teal "romp" on election night.Bradfield (NSW North Shore): Teal Nicolette Boele (Burle/Bola) behind Liberal Giselle Kaptarian by 178 votes (updated during recording).Goldstein (VIC): Tim Wilson (Liberal) leading Zoe Daniel (Teal) by 925 votes. Wilson is likely back. Joel comments on Wilson's IPA association vs. his "gay, wet, mediocre, progressive side." Jack notes Wilson often highlights his sexuality.Jim Chalmers' quip about Tim Wilson: "Popular for all those who haven't met him."Kooyong (VIC): Monique Ryan (Teal) leading by 1002 votes (97,000 counted, ~8,000 postals to go). Redistribution added parts of Toorak, making it harder for Ryan.Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer: "Trust fund renter" controversy, owns multiple properties, London bolthole.Corflute wars in Kooyong: Hamer campaign's excessive use of ...
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    2 hrs and 8 mins
  • The Two Jacks - Episode 112 - Australian Election Post-Mortem, Canadian Stunner & Trump's Papal Dreams

    The Two Jacks - Episode 112 - Australian Election Post-Mortem, Canadian Stunner & Trump's Papal Dreams
    May 7 2025
    More AI notes for y'all. They're not bad! Episode Link: Find this and other episodes at The Conditional Release Program on RedCircle.Recorded: May 5, 2025 (two days after the Australian Federal Election)Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong JackIn this episode, The Two Jacks dissect the stunning Australian federal election results, explore a surprising political turnaround in Canada, ponder the next Pope, and touch on global political shifts from the UK to Germany, and the latest from Trump's America.(00:00:00) Introduction & Australian Election: An Orderly Affair Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick off by praising the smooth and festive nature of the Australian federal election, highlighting the efficiency of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and the beloved "democracy sausage."(00:02:21) The Pre-Poll Phenomenon A discussion on the increasing trend of pre-polling, with over half of Australians casting their vote before election day. The hosts debate the merits of shortening the pre-polling period, with Hong Kong Jack lamenting the decline of traditional Saturday voting.(00:06:06) Betting Blunders & Historic Results Labor's remarkable journey from $15 outsiders to $1.07 unbackable favourites to form government is reviewed. The episode highlights key historical markers:Anthony Albanese: The first Prime Minister re-elected since 2004.A significant Labor victory, with Albanese leading the first government in Australian political history to increase its majority in a second term.(00:09:17) Seat Swings, Mea Culpas & The Greens' Tumble The hosts reflect on their pre-election predictions against the reality of significant swings to Labor (e.g., a 10% swing in Bennelong). Labor is projected to win around 90 seats.The Greens: A tough election, with leader Adam Bandt likely to lose his seat in Melbourne. Zoe Daniel (Teal) is also in a precarious position in Goldstein. The Greens may lose Ryan back to the Liberals and potentially face no representation in the House of Representatives.(00:13:38) A UK Perspective & Labor's Resurgence Hong Kong Jack shares insights from the UK, where observers noted Labor's landslide and the "leaderless, rudderless, pointless" state of the Coalition. This challenges the narrative that incumbents always lose, citing recent Canadian and Australian results.(00:16:27) Liberal Campaign Catastrophe: A "Don't Do This" Case Study A deep dive into the Liberal Party's "dreadful campaign," marked by:The ill-conceived work-from-home policy, poorly communicated by Senator Jane Hume and lacking consultation.A string of policy backflips and poorly planned announcements (e.g., fuel excise cut, Melbourne airport rail funding announced at a winery).Peter Dutton has accepted responsibility for the campaign's failures.(00:22:46) Trump's Take & The Muted MAGA Effect Donald Trump's reaction to the Australian election (congratulating "Albert" while feigning ignorance of Dutton) is discussed. The hosts agree that MAGA influence was minimal, with Albanese's message of "kindness is not weakness" resonating more strongly.(00:25:13) The Liberal Party's Existential Crossroads A critical analysis of the Liberal Party's future, having lost traditional heartland seats and failed to broaden its appeal beyond an aging demographic.The danger of vacating the political centre and the flawed strategy of chasing a new "working-class" constituency.Hong Kong Jack draws parallels to Labor's wilderness years (1977, 1996), emphasizing the need for honest self-reflection for any chance of recovery.Labor's structural advantages: benefiting from Green preferences and a more unified progressive base compared to a fragmented right-wing, further diluted by entities like Clive Palmer's party.(00:39:58) Senate Snapshot: Stability Prevails An overview of the projected Senate makeup across the states:NSW & VIC: Likely Labor 3, Liberals 2, Greens 1.QLD: Labor 2, Libs 2, Greens 1, with One Nation's Malcolm Roberts likely re-elected.TAS: Jacqui Lambie expected to return.ACT: Independent David Pocock secures his quota alongside a Labor senator.Overall, the Senate composition is unlikely to see dramatic changes. David Pocock is commended for his diligent work.(00:42:25) Who Will Lead the Liberals? A Party in Search of Direction Speculation on the future leadership of the Liberal Party, with few obvious candidates emerging from a depleted frontbench. Dan Tehan is mentioned as a possible moderate caretaker, though the path back to government looks long and arduous.(00:45:58) Albanese: The New "Labor God" & Chalmers' Contribution Anthony Albanese is lauded for his historic achievement, with Jim Chalmers highlighted as a key performer and media operator for Labor, despite Hong Kong Jack's gentle ribbing about his lengthy essays.(00:48:56) Canadian Politics Upended: Liberals' Shock Comeback A look at the Canadian election, where the Liberals achieved a stunning turnaround, with Conservative leader Pierre ...
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    1 hr and 35 mins
  • Episode 184 - Cookers with Dave feat. Eyebrows, Bonds, Monica and Dr. Doordash!

    Episode 184 - Cookers with Dave feat. Eyebrows, Bonds, Monica and Dr. Doordash!
    May 3 2025
    Listeners! It' election day and I cannot be bothered so it's AI shownotes this week. Enjoy! Hosts: Joel Hill & Dave (Cooker Watcher Supreme)(00:00:00) Introduction & WelcomeJoel welcomes listeners and introduces guest host Dave, replacing Jack the Insider.Shoutout: CB Co Beer for election night viewing. Mention of a competition involving a boat trip.Election Calls to Action:Vote 1 Fiona Patton in the Victorian Senate, preference 2 Purple Pingers.(00:01:48) Tinfoil Tales Follow-Up: The Next Pope?Discussion on cooker theories about the next Pope (King Charles?).Lindsey Graham's tweet suggesting Donald Trump for Pope.00:02:38 Dave reads the tweet.Trump's blue suit vs. Obama's tan suit controversy revisited.Brief thoughts on the late Pope's legacy and potential successor.(00:04:37) Dave's Cooker Report: Cessnock & CPACDave attended a meeting with Joel Jammal ("Eyebrows") in Cessnock (his 8th visit).Jammal debriefed the local unnamed "Freedom Group" (often linked to One Nation) on his CPAC trip.Local Candidates Present:Stuart Bonds (One Nation candidate for Hunter).Jennifer Stefanak (Trumpet of Patriots Newcastle) - Flat Earther, aliens are fallen angels, won NCAT case after dismissal from child services. Not allowed to speak despite attending.Mysterious Host: Christine Stevens, credited by Jammal as "brains behind the Wollongbae Road campaign" (a local road widening project used by cookers).Stevens now campaign manager for Stuart Bonds (referred to as "boss"). Possible links to broader far-right organising.Joel Jammal's Gifts: Rolled-up maps for Cessnock's 6 cooker councillors showing ALP vs. Voice 'No' vote intersections. Maps available for purchase from Jammal.Jammal's CPAC Trip: Won the trip via the "Shark Bites Pitching Contest" at CPAC Australia (Sky paywall).Winners expected to produce content upon return.Included a communication seminar with Steve Bannon.Stuart Bonds' Candidacy (Hunter):Odds discussed ($10 on Sportsbet).Labor's Dan Repacholi favoured ($1.15).Bonds' history: 21% primary in 2019, left One Nation, rejoined. Consistent far-right vote in the region.Bonds' desire to "start a conversation about coal mining" (already ongoing).Discussion on Labor's telehealth plan and cooker opposition.(00:24:07) Trumpism & Dutton's CampaignDiscussion on the "blueprint for Trump 28".Chris LaCivita (Trump advisor) reportedly helped Peter Dutton's campaign. Joel questions the effectiveness given global trends.Mainstream media's difficulty rallying behind Dutton.(00:25:52) Cooker Report Part 2: Gosford & MyPlaceDave attended the Lisa Bellamy independent campaign launch in Gosford.Follow-on from "Coasties Who Care" (MyPlace environmentalist council ticket).Shadowy Figure: Kate Mason (anti-renewable circuit, IPA/Advance events). Launched Bellamy's campaign.Campaign barely mentions climate change, focuses on opposing Aboriginal Land Council developments.Key Figures on Stage:Jake Cassar (musician, prepper).Lisa Bellamy (MyPlace coordinator, seen at Convoy with Kate Mason).Vicki Burke (MyPlace food/water security organiser, believes in aliens/other planets).Group suggests increased One Nation vote would benefit them. Bellamy received ~3000 votes previously.Kate Mason's Agenda: Reshaping the environment movement to focus on conspiracies (15-min cities, anti-meat).Shapeshifted from anti-vax (IMOP) -> Voice 'No' -> Anti-artificial food/Bellamy campaign.Significant Telegram following despite "gobbledygook" posts.Rally vs. Darkinjung Land Council/Woolworths Development: Focus remains on Land Council projects. Racist undertones ("love the land as much as we do").Links to Garingai (now potentially split/rebranded). NRL Welcome to Country discussed.Jake Cassar Deep Dive: Constant self-promotion, minimal concrete environmental vision beyond opposing the Land Council. Attacks Labor/Greens. Right-wing presence at events. Ballarat missing person search (found dog with SES). Yowie encounter at Woy Woy tip. Lack of accountability in Facebook environmental groups (anti-immigration/Aboriginal rhetoric).(00:40:33) Monica Smit's Private Prosecution of Dan AndrewsMonica plans a private criminal prosecution against Dan Andrews (and Jacinta Allan).Website Quote: "The wait is over righteous justice begins now" - Monica Smit.Topher Field involved as cheerleader/promoter.Basis: "New evidence" (Document 34 FOI email) allegedly showing curfew decision made before consulting CHO Brett Sutton. Implication: tyranny, not health advice.Joel suggests it was likely capitulation to police enforcement ease.Fundraising: Claimed $124,605 raised (via manually updated widget). Monica paid herself $1000/week stipend already.Monica's Justification ("Why me?"): Stood toe-to-toe and won, relentless energy, prison time (refused bail), won appeal, resisted database handover, won unlawful arrest case (appealing costs decision), claims past refund integrity, lives simply, no distractions (children/friends).Bender (@SpambotX) Twitter Thread: Brutal takedown of ...
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    1 hr and 55 mins

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