Episodes

  • Episode 185 - Post 2025 Federal Election Wrap

    Episode 185 - Post 2025 Federal Election Wrap
    May 7 2025
    MORE UNINTENTIONALLY FUNNY AI SLOP SHOWNOTES. Peter Hoistead? Thanks Gemini. Thanks listeners. We love you. Buy CBCo it's excellent beer. The Conditional Release Program - Episode 185: Federal Election 2025 Post-SpecialHosts: Joel Hill & Jack the Insider (Peter Hoistead)Overall Theme: A deep dive into the results and implications of the 2025 Australian Federal Election, focusing on Labor's historic victory, the Coalition's catastrophic loss, and the performance of minor parties and independents.Key Segments & Talking Points:(Part 1 - Approximate Timestamps based on original transcript, subject to adjustment)[00:00:00 - 00:01:23] Introduction & Election OverviewJoel laments being banned from betting on the election, particularly Labor's strong odds.Jack notes Joel would have won significantly, especially on Labor at $2.60.Historic Labor Win: Anthony "Albo" Albanese leads Labor to a significant victory.Libs sent into an "existential crisis."Albo is the first PM to be re-elected since John Howard in 2004.Largest Labor victory on a two-party preferred basis since John Curtin in 1943 (votes still being counted).Crucial Stat: The Albanese government is the only first-term government to have a swing towards it in Australian political history.[00:01:23 - 00:03:38] Significance of the Swing to LaborPrevious first-term governments (Howard '98, Hawke '84, Fraser '77, Whitlam '74, Menzies) all had swings against them when seeking a second term.Albo's government achieved an approximate 4% swing towards it (votes still being counted).Discussion points: Where it went right for Labor, and wrong for the Coalition, Greens, and Teals.Far-right "Cookers" performed terribly. Pauline Hanson's One Nation (FONY) might see minor representation.[00:03:38 - 00:05:11] Patreon & Sponsor Shout-outsReminder to support the podcast on Patreon: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (for as little as $5/month).CB Co. Beer: Praised for their IPA and new Hazy XPA. Competition to win $100,000. Use code CRP10 for 10% off at cbco.beer.[00:05:11 - 00:08:52] Polling Inaccuracies & Liberal OptimismReiteration of the ~4% swing to Labor.Comparison of final poll predictions vs. actual results:Freshwater: Labor 51.5% (was Liberal pollster, told Libs they were close).Newspoll: 52.5% (Labor used their private polling).Essential: 53.5%.YouGov: 52.2% - 52.9%.Polling companies significantly underestimated Labor's vote, especially those advising the Coalition.The misplaced optimism at Liberal Party HQ on election night.[00:08:52 - 00:16:00] Specific Seat Results & Labor GainsGilmore (NSW South Coast): Fiona Phillips (Labor) won 55-45 (3-4% swing to her), despite Andrew Constance (Liberal) being the favourite.Bennelong (Howard's old seat): Jeremy Laxail (Labor) won 59-41 against Scott Young (problematic Liberal candidate), a 10% swing to Labor.Parramatta: Andrew Charlton (Labor) won 62-38 (was 53.47 in 2022).Aston (Victoria): Labor won in a historic by-election previously, now a 4% swing to the Labor candidate, winning 53-47.Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) achieved an 8% swing, holding the seat 61-39.Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor, ex-cop & dolphin trainer) secured a 3% swing, now 56-44. Large Bhutanese diaspora noted.Leichhardt (FNQ): Labor's Matt Smith won 57-43 after Warren Entsch (LNP) retired (10% swing).Hunter (NSW): Dan Repiccioli (Labor) re-elected with 44% primary vote (5% swing on primary). Fended off Nats and One Nation (Stuart Bonds' inflated vote claims by "One Australia" on X).[00:16:00 - 00:18:49] Diversifying Parliament & Women in PoliticsPraise for non-lawyer backgrounds in Parliament (e.g., Dan Repiccioli, Sam Lim).Critique of the typical lawyer/staffer/union pathway.Labor's success in diversifying candidate backgrounds and increasing female representation.Liberals struggling with female representation despite some efforts. Discussion of potential quotas in the Liberal party and the backlash it would cause.Margaret Thatcher quote: "If you want something said, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman."[00:18:49 - 00:27:26] The Teals: Mixed Results & ChallengesInitial appearance of a Teal "romp" on election night.Bradfield (NSW North Shore): Teal Nicolette Boele (Burle/Bola) behind Liberal Giselle Kaptarian by 178 votes (updated during recording).Goldstein (VIC): Tim Wilson (Liberal) leading Zoe Daniel (Teal) by 925 votes. Wilson is likely back. Joel comments on Wilson's IPA association vs. his "gay, wet, mediocre, progressive side." Jack notes Wilson often highlights his sexuality.Jim Chalmers' quip about Tim Wilson: "Popular for all those who haven't met him."Kooyong (VIC): Monique Ryan (Teal) leading by 1002 votes (97,000 counted, ~8,000 postals to go). Redistribution added parts of Toorak, making it harder for Ryan.Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer: "Trust fund renter" controversy, owns multiple properties, London bolthole.Corflute wars in Kooyong: Hamer campaign's excessive use of ...
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    2 hrs and 8 mins
  • The Two Jacks - Episode 112 - Australian Election Post-Mortem, Canadian Stunner & Trump's Papal Dreams

    The Two Jacks - Episode 112 - Australian Election Post-Mortem, Canadian Stunner & Trump's Papal Dreams
    May 7 2025
    More AI notes for y'all. They're not bad! Episode Link: Find this and other episodes at The Conditional Release Program on RedCircle.Recorded: May 5, 2025 (two days after the Australian Federal Election)Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong JackIn this episode, The Two Jacks dissect the stunning Australian federal election results, explore a surprising political turnaround in Canada, ponder the next Pope, and touch on global political shifts from the UK to Germany, and the latest from Trump's America.(00:00:00) Introduction & Australian Election: An Orderly Affair Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick off by praising the smooth and festive nature of the Australian federal election, highlighting the efficiency of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and the beloved "democracy sausage."(00:02:21) The Pre-Poll Phenomenon A discussion on the increasing trend of pre-polling, with over half of Australians casting their vote before election day. The hosts debate the merits of shortening the pre-polling period, with Hong Kong Jack lamenting the decline of traditional Saturday voting.(00:06:06) Betting Blunders & Historic Results Labor's remarkable journey from $15 outsiders to $1.07 unbackable favourites to form government is reviewed. The episode highlights key historical markers:Anthony Albanese: The first Prime Minister re-elected since 2004.A significant Labor victory, with Albanese leading the first government in Australian political history to increase its majority in a second term.(00:09:17) Seat Swings, Mea Culpas & The Greens' Tumble The hosts reflect on their pre-election predictions against the reality of significant swings to Labor (e.g., a 10% swing in Bennelong). Labor is projected to win around 90 seats.The Greens: A tough election, with leader Adam Bandt likely to lose his seat in Melbourne. Zoe Daniel (Teal) is also in a precarious position in Goldstein. The Greens may lose Ryan back to the Liberals and potentially face no representation in the House of Representatives.(00:13:38) A UK Perspective & Labor's Resurgence Hong Kong Jack shares insights from the UK, where observers noted Labor's landslide and the "leaderless, rudderless, pointless" state of the Coalition. This challenges the narrative that incumbents always lose, citing recent Canadian and Australian results.(00:16:27) Liberal Campaign Catastrophe: A "Don't Do This" Case Study A deep dive into the Liberal Party's "dreadful campaign," marked by:The ill-conceived work-from-home policy, poorly communicated by Senator Jane Hume and lacking consultation.A string of policy backflips and poorly planned announcements (e.g., fuel excise cut, Melbourne airport rail funding announced at a winery).Peter Dutton has accepted responsibility for the campaign's failures.(00:22:46) Trump's Take & The Muted MAGA Effect Donald Trump's reaction to the Australian election (congratulating "Albert" while feigning ignorance of Dutton) is discussed. The hosts agree that MAGA influence was minimal, with Albanese's message of "kindness is not weakness" resonating more strongly.(00:25:13) The Liberal Party's Existential Crossroads A critical analysis of the Liberal Party's future, having lost traditional heartland seats and failed to broaden its appeal beyond an aging demographic.The danger of vacating the political centre and the flawed strategy of chasing a new "working-class" constituency.Hong Kong Jack draws parallels to Labor's wilderness years (1977, 1996), emphasizing the need for honest self-reflection for any chance of recovery.Labor's structural advantages: benefiting from Green preferences and a more unified progressive base compared to a fragmented right-wing, further diluted by entities like Clive Palmer's party.(00:39:58) Senate Snapshot: Stability Prevails An overview of the projected Senate makeup across the states:NSW & VIC: Likely Labor 3, Liberals 2, Greens 1.QLD: Labor 2, Libs 2, Greens 1, with One Nation's Malcolm Roberts likely re-elected.TAS: Jacqui Lambie expected to return.ACT: Independent David Pocock secures his quota alongside a Labor senator.Overall, the Senate composition is unlikely to see dramatic changes. David Pocock is commended for his diligent work.(00:42:25) Who Will Lead the Liberals? A Party in Search of Direction Speculation on the future leadership of the Liberal Party, with few obvious candidates emerging from a depleted frontbench. Dan Tehan is mentioned as a possible moderate caretaker, though the path back to government looks long and arduous.(00:45:58) Albanese: The New "Labor God" & Chalmers' Contribution Anthony Albanese is lauded for his historic achievement, with Jim Chalmers highlighted as a key performer and media operator for Labor, despite Hong Kong Jack's gentle ribbing about his lengthy essays.(00:48:56) Canadian Politics Upended: Liberals' Shock Comeback A look at the Canadian election, where the Liberals achieved a stunning turnaround, with Conservative leader Pierre ...
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    1 hr and 35 mins
  • Episode 184 - Cookers with Dave feat. Eyebrows, Bonds, Monica and Dr. Doordash!

    Episode 184 - Cookers with Dave feat. Eyebrows, Bonds, Monica and Dr. Doordash!
    May 3 2025
    Listeners! It' election day and I cannot be bothered so it's AI shownotes this week. Enjoy! Hosts: Joel Hill & Dave (Cooker Watcher Supreme)(00:00:00) Introduction & WelcomeJoel welcomes listeners and introduces guest host Dave, replacing Jack the Insider.Shoutout: CB Co Beer for election night viewing. Mention of a competition involving a boat trip.Election Calls to Action:Vote 1 Fiona Patton in the Victorian Senate, preference 2 Purple Pingers.(00:01:48) Tinfoil Tales Follow-Up: The Next Pope?Discussion on cooker theories about the next Pope (King Charles?).Lindsey Graham's tweet suggesting Donald Trump for Pope.00:02:38 Dave reads the tweet.Trump's blue suit vs. Obama's tan suit controversy revisited.Brief thoughts on the late Pope's legacy and potential successor.(00:04:37) Dave's Cooker Report: Cessnock & CPACDave attended a meeting with Joel Jammal ("Eyebrows") in Cessnock (his 8th visit).Jammal debriefed the local unnamed "Freedom Group" (often linked to One Nation) on his CPAC trip.Local Candidates Present:Stuart Bonds (One Nation candidate for Hunter).Jennifer Stefanak (Trumpet of Patriots Newcastle) - Flat Earther, aliens are fallen angels, won NCAT case after dismissal from child services. Not allowed to speak despite attending.Mysterious Host: Christine Stevens, credited by Jammal as "brains behind the Wollongbae Road campaign" (a local road widening project used by cookers).Stevens now campaign manager for Stuart Bonds (referred to as "boss"). Possible links to broader far-right organising.Joel Jammal's Gifts: Rolled-up maps for Cessnock's 6 cooker councillors showing ALP vs. Voice 'No' vote intersections. Maps available for purchase from Jammal.Jammal's CPAC Trip: Won the trip via the "Shark Bites Pitching Contest" at CPAC Australia (Sky paywall).Winners expected to produce content upon return.Included a communication seminar with Steve Bannon.Stuart Bonds' Candidacy (Hunter):Odds discussed ($10 on Sportsbet).Labor's Dan Repacholi favoured ($1.15).Bonds' history: 21% primary in 2019, left One Nation, rejoined. Consistent far-right vote in the region.Bonds' desire to "start a conversation about coal mining" (already ongoing).Discussion on Labor's telehealth plan and cooker opposition.(00:24:07) Trumpism & Dutton's CampaignDiscussion on the "blueprint for Trump 28".Chris LaCivita (Trump advisor) reportedly helped Peter Dutton's campaign. Joel questions the effectiveness given global trends.Mainstream media's difficulty rallying behind Dutton.(00:25:52) Cooker Report Part 2: Gosford & MyPlaceDave attended the Lisa Bellamy independent campaign launch in Gosford.Follow-on from "Coasties Who Care" (MyPlace environmentalist council ticket).Shadowy Figure: Kate Mason (anti-renewable circuit, IPA/Advance events). Launched Bellamy's campaign.Campaign barely mentions climate change, focuses on opposing Aboriginal Land Council developments.Key Figures on Stage:Jake Cassar (musician, prepper).Lisa Bellamy (MyPlace coordinator, seen at Convoy with Kate Mason).Vicki Burke (MyPlace food/water security organiser, believes in aliens/other planets).Group suggests increased One Nation vote would benefit them. Bellamy received ~3000 votes previously.Kate Mason's Agenda: Reshaping the environment movement to focus on conspiracies (15-min cities, anti-meat).Shapeshifted from anti-vax (IMOP) -> Voice 'No' -> Anti-artificial food/Bellamy campaign.Significant Telegram following despite "gobbledygook" posts.Rally vs. Darkinjung Land Council/Woolworths Development: Focus remains on Land Council projects. Racist undertones ("love the land as much as we do").Links to Garingai (now potentially split/rebranded). NRL Welcome to Country discussed.Jake Cassar Deep Dive: Constant self-promotion, minimal concrete environmental vision beyond opposing the Land Council. Attacks Labor/Greens. Right-wing presence at events. Ballarat missing person search (found dog with SES). Yowie encounter at Woy Woy tip. Lack of accountability in Facebook environmental groups (anti-immigration/Aboriginal rhetoric).(00:40:33) Monica Smit's Private Prosecution of Dan AndrewsMonica plans a private criminal prosecution against Dan Andrews (and Jacinta Allan).Website Quote: "The wait is over righteous justice begins now" - Monica Smit.Topher Field involved as cheerleader/promoter.Basis: "New evidence" (Document 34 FOI email) allegedly showing curfew decision made before consulting CHO Brett Sutton. Implication: tyranny, not health advice.Joel suggests it was likely capitulation to police enforcement ease.Fundraising: Claimed $124,605 raised (via manually updated widget). Monica paid herself $1000/week stipend already.Monica's Justification ("Why me?"): Stood toe-to-toe and won, relentless energy, prison time (refused bail), won appeal, resisted database handover, won unlawful arrest case (appealing costs decision), claims past refund integrity, lives simply, no distractions (children/friends).Bender (@SpambotX) Twitter Thread: Brutal takedown of ...
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    1 hr and 55 mins
  • The Two Jacks - Episode 111 - All The Ones

    The Two Jacks - Episode 111 - All The Ones
    Apr 30 2025
    AI shownotes again. I'm sure they are totally accurate. Recorded: ANZAC Day (Australian Public Holiday)Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong JackIntroduction & ANZAC Day Reflections (00:00:01 - 00:01:17)Jack the Insider welcomes listeners to Episode 111, recorded on ANZAC Day.Mention of an interruption at the Melbourne Dawn Service involving neo-Nazi Jacob Hersant.Introduction of Hong Kong Jack.Hong Kong Update & Australian Politics (00:01:17 - 00:10:05)Hong Kong Exodus: Hong Kong Jack notes 2.2 million people left Hong Kong over Easter.Jacob Hersant Incident: Further discussion on the neo-Nazi escorted from the Shrine of Remembrance.Rise of Neo-Nazism & Fringe Candidates: Jack the Insider discusses the history (Jim Sallium) and current state of far-right politics, including candidates with criminal convictions (Rod Culleton, Dixon candidate) potentially running despite Section 44 eligibility issues.Section 44 Cases: Mention of Phil Cleary and a Greens candidate ("secret New Zealander").YouGov Poll Analysis:Labor: 33.5%LNP: 31%Greens: 14%One Nation: 10.5% (up significantly from ~5% in 2022)TPP: 53.5% (Labor) / 46.5% (LNP)Preference Flows: Discussion on One Nation's decision to preference LNP and historical preference flows to Labor. Challenges for minor parties getting How-To-Vote cards distributed (comparison to Democrats).Election Analysis & Predictions (00:10:05 - 00:20:42)Declining Two-Party System: Combined Labor/LNP primary vote down from the last election.LNP Strategy Critiqued: Jack the Insider criticizes the LNP for not adapting post-2022 election, particularly regarding teal seats and climate change.Campaign Trail: Albanese campaigning in Liberal marginals; Dutton's comments on Melbourne safety.Election Outcome Predictions:Jack the Insider: Labor majority (around 76-80 seats).Hong Kong Jack: Labor minority.Liberal Campaign Issues: Comparison to Latham's 2004 campaign, social media mishaps ("muppet heads"), vehicle emissions policy backflip.Betting Odds: Discussion on the shift in betting markets, favoring Labor.Early Voting: Debate on the merits and drawbacks of pre-polling, referencing Darren Hinch and Imre Selizynski's comments, and accessibility issues.Politics, Religion & Geopolitics (00:20:42 - 00:41:55)Preference Deals & Jewish Community: Discussion on Labor's preference deals with the Greens in McNamara (open ticket for Josh Burns) vs. Isaacs (Mark Dreyfus), causing concern in the Jewish community. Mention of the Adas Israel synagogue firebombing and surrounding uncertainties/rumours.Pope Francis's Passing: Reflections on his papacy. Hong Kong Jack prefers John Paul II; Jack the Insider defends Francis and criticizes JP II over handling scandals. Discussion on potential successors and the slow pace of change in the Catholic Church.Easter & Religion: Easter memes, the role of the Catholic Church (charity vs. criticism), changes in Ireland, Catholics selectively following doctrine (e.g., contraception).India-Pakistan Tensions: Escalation following a militant attack in Kashmir. India threatens to cut off water supplies to Pakistan. Historical context, nuclear capabilities, and the danger of water rights disputes. Brief mentions of Pakistan's internal issues and conditions in Bangladesh.US Politics & Global Affairs (00:41:55 - 00:55:28)Trump & Trade: Trump walks back China tariff threats after meeting retail executives concerned about Christmas stock. Discussion on Trump's understanding of trade.US Courts & Executive Orders: Judge Kollar-Kotelly's ruling striking down parts of Trump's order requiring citizenship proof for voter registration, while upholding other sections. Discussion on the proper role of courts, checks and balances, and Congress's inaction leading to increased reliance on executive orders.Russia-Ukraine Peace Proposal: Details of a proposed deal involving US recognition of Russian control over Crimea/Eastern regions, no NATO for Ukraine, lifting sanctions vs. European security guarantees for Ukraine, return of some territory, etc. Criticism from Boris Johnson; seen as unfavourable to Ukraine. Trump's tweet urging Putin to stop strikes on Kyiv.Anniversaries & Culture (00:55:28 - 00:58:31)Saigon Evacuation: 50th anniversary of the Australian Embassy evacuation, noting local staff left behind.Crocodile Dundee: 39th anniversary. Paul Hogan's comments, investment success stories (Dennis Lillee).Yahoo Serious: Mention of a current court case.Sports: Cricket, AFL & More (00:58:31 - 01:29:28)Keith Stackpole (RIP): Tribute to the former Australian cricketer. Discussion of his career as a player (opener, aggressive batsman) and commentator. Anecdotes involving Bill Lawry, Kerry O'Keeffe, Harsha Bhogle.AFL Send-Off Rule Debate: Sparked by the Nash/Miers incident. Arguments for/against a red card, implementation challenges (timing, concussion protocols), historical examples, Lee Matthews' view.MCG Security & SCG Fan Ban: Increased security for ANZAC Day game. Discussion on the SCG ...
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    1 hr and 34 mins
  • Episode 183 - The Kids Are Not Alright

    Episode 183 - The Kids Are Not Alright
    Apr 17 2025
    Listeners this one is a bit hectic. The kids are getting up to all sorts of cooked stuff online and it involves a lot of real life traumatic behaviour which is deeply unpleasant and completely depraved. But it's important to discuss stuff like this as sunlight can have a positive impact on making these people less brazen and more afraid of the consequences of their horrible actions. Anyway, here's some AI slop shownotes - Listener discretion is advised! The Conditioned Release Program: Episode 183 - The Kids Are Not AlrightHosts: Jack the Insider (Peter Hoysted) & Joel HillEpisode Summary:In this deeply unsettling episode, Jack and Joel dive into the dark corners of the internet to expose dangerous online child exploitation networks. The primary focus is on the group known as 764, but the discussion also covers related extremist networks like CVLT, NLM (No Lives Matter), and the Order of Nine Angles (O9A). The hosts catalogue the disturbing methods these groups use, the real-world harm they inflict, and the challenges faced in combating them.Content Warning:This episode contains extremely disturbing content, including detailed discussions of child sex exploitation, suicide, self-harm, grooming, coercion, and mass murder events.Listener discretion is strongly advised. If you are not prepared for graphic and upsetting material, please skip this episode. (00:01:05 - 00:01:25)Support & Helplines:If this episode raises concerns, please reach out for support:Lifeline Australia: 13 11 14Suicide Call Back Service: 1300 659 467 (00:01:37)Support the Conditioned Release Program on Patreon to help them continue their research and production: www.patreon.com/theconditionalreleaseprogram (00:02:07 - 00:02:44)Key Topics & Timestamps:(00:00:09) Introduction: Jack and Joel introduce the grim topic: the dangers lurking online for children.(00:00:49) Introducing 764: Joel introduces the focus on online exploitation networks, particularly the group 764.(00:04:32) What is 764?: A closer look at 764 - an online network primarily involving teenage boys coercing and blackmailing vulnerable peers (often girls) into self-harm and producing CSAM (Child Sexual Abuse Material). Discusses incel vibes and the fluid nature of membership between extremist groups.(00:10:56) Origins & Related Networks: Exploration of the networks that preceded or inspired 764:CVLT (Cult with a V): (00:11:11, 00:34:00)NLM (No Lives Matter): (00:11:20, 00:44:09)Order of Nine Angles (O9A): (00:11:20, 00:48:04)The COM (Community): (00:12:04)(00:12:17) Precursors - The Blue Whale Challenge: Discussion of the infamous 2016 "game" linked to numerous child suicides in Russia.(00:29:15) Challenges in Policing/Research: The difficulty researchers, media, and academics face in tracking these groups due to the prevalence of illegal CSAM, which carries strict liability offences for possession/viewing.(00:33:36) Case Study - Bradley Cadenhead: The founder of 764 (handles: Brad764, Felix764), arrested in Texas for CSAM possession/distribution and manipulation of minors. His links to CVLT and Caleb Merritt.(00:34:13) Case Study - Caleb Merritt: Leader of CVLT, arrested for kidnapping, rape, CSAM, and grooming. Currently serving a 30-year sentence. Linked to an international neo-fascist group.(00:44:09) NLM (No Lives Matter) Deep Dive: Examination of NLM's extremist publications (The Terror Guide, The Manhunt Guide, NLM Kill Guide), operational security, and partnerships with neo-Nazi groups like Mordwaffen Division (MWD) and the Russian WRME/MKU (Maniac Murder Cult).(00:48:04) Order of Nine Angles (O9A) Deep Dive: Discussion of O9A's extreme neo-Nazi, Satanist ideology focused on societal collapse through violence, infiltration (e.g., military, police), and "culling." Mention of the US Marine who plotted an attack on his own unit. (00:51:15)(00:52:00) Recent Incidents: Mention of a 16-year-old arrested in the US (April 2025) for killing his parents as part of a plot against Donald Trump, highlighting potential links to these ideologies.(00:52:45) Case Study - Finnegan: UK 764 member who pleaded guilty to encouraging suicide, possessing terrorism manuals, and CSAM.(01:06:25) The Dilemma of Reporting: Discussion on the balancing act authorities face between warning the public (especially parents) about these groups and the risk of inadvertently promoting them or inspiring copycats among vulnerable teens.(01:24:49) Final Thoughts on 764: Recap of the unpleasant but necessary discussion, emphasizing the low public awareness and the constantly evolving, organic nature of these groups.(01:25:42) The Week in Pete Evans: A shift to a lighter segment to decompress after the heavy main topic.Calls to Action:Share this episode: Given the critical importance and low awareness of this topic, please share this episode with others, especially parents, while including the necessary content warnings. (01:46:50)Subscribe & Review: Subscribe to The ...
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    1 hr and 42 mins
  • The Two Jacks - Episode 109 - Federal Election - Tariffs - ABC Radio - Censorship

    The Two Jacks - Episode 109 - Federal Election - Tariffs - ABC Radio - Censorship
    Apr 15 2025
    HECTIC AI SHOWNOTES CAUSE WE ARE LAZY, GOBBLESS. Enjoy! The Two Jacks - Episode 109: Election Update, Tariff Tremors & Online PolicingHosted by: Hong Kong Jack & Jack the InsiderWelcome to Episode 109 of The Two Jacks! This week, Jack and Jackdive into the thick of the Australian federal election, dissect President Trump's latest tariff moves, debate the policing of online speech, and touch on French politics, climate action, and sports.Key Topics Discussed:Australian Federal Election (00:00:20)Campaign Update: Entering the second week.Polling: Labor showing potential for a majority (News Poll 52-48), similar to other polls (51-49 to 52-48), despite a low primary vote (~32.5%). Recalls Labor's 2022 win with a similar primary vote.Leaders' Debate: Discussion of the Sky News debate between Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese. Joel views it as a draw, though Albanese was declared the winner by audience vote (approx. 44-35).Campaign Weaknesses (00:17:45): Both Jacks agree the campaign lacks substance, particularly on crucial issues like productivity and housing affordability. They note the difficulty for citizens needing to live far from CBDs (e.g., South Morang vs. Fitzroy historically) and criticize the parties for avoiding hard decisions.US Tariffs & Global Economy (00:28:00 & 00:48:04)Trump's Tariff Policy: Discussion on the imposition and subsequent 90-day delay of new tariffs on countries like Vietnam (47%), the Philippines (17%), and others. Standard 10% tariff remains elsewhere.Negotiations: Reports of Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan engaging or preparing to negotiate, though Trump's claims about eagerness are questioned. Japan plans a "comprehensive response."Market Impact (00:30:08): Initial $9 trillion market loss, followed by a significant S&P 500 recovery (largest since 2008, but still below January levels). Oil prices jumped, and US bond yields fell, raising debt crisis concerns. Jack emphasizes the importance of bond yields (cost of borrowing for the US government).Motivations & Consequences (00:40:07): Is it an assertion of US economic muscle? Jack notes bipartisan support for the idea (feeling the US gets the short end), but the hosts critique the erratic rollout. Potential consequences include US inflation, slowed GDP growth, and job losses.Listener Feedback (Lawrence) (00:48:04): Criticizes the "schizophrenic" messaging (tariffs fixing jobs and deficits simultaneously) and the floated (but unconfirmed by Trump admin) idea of abolishing income tax.Outlook: Potential shift towards multilateral trade negotiations among other countries.Listener Feedback: ABC Radio (00:45:51)Listener Lawrence reflects on the Jacks' previous comments about changes at ABC Radio, noting a perceived shift in their stance from wanting "new blood" to "bemoaning changes."Joel's Clarification: Concern is about management bringing in people with FM radio backgrounds lacking national broadcaster experience, not against new faces generally.Jack's Clarification: Agrees on needing turnover ("new voices") but questions the strategy of chasing a youth demographic on ABC Radio, suggesting consolidation of the existing audience is better.Social Media Censorship & Online Dangers (UK Focus) (00:51:20)UK Arrests: Report from The Times: British police making ~33 arrests daily in 2023/24 for "offensive" online posts causing "annoyance, inconvenience or anxiety" (12,183 arrests total), a 58% rise since 2019.Policing Concerns: Many arrests lead to questioning and release without charge, raising questions about efficient use of police resources. Jack mentions the decriminalization of burglary adding context.Historical Context (00:54:31): Jack traces the issue back to the late 1990s and the concept of "non-crime hate incidents" arising from the Stephen Lawrence inquiry, arguing it introduced subjectivity and inconsistency compared to investigating objective crimes. He critiques arresting people before establishing if a crime occurred.Nuance & Online Harms (00:56:40): Joel notes arrests might relate to other offenses alongside "malicious communications." While agreeing trivial cases waste resources, he highlights the dark side of social media, including severe online bullying (mentions group "764-JAC") and stalking, arguing police surveillance is needed for serious threats.Under-16 Social Media Ban (01:02:37): Joel reflects on the Albanese government's ban, admitting he initially opposed it but is reconsidering due to the severity of online harms affecting children.French Politics Update (01:03:47)Far-right leader Marine Le Pen vows presidential run, controversially comparing herself to Martin Luther King Jr. and Alexei Navalny.Jordan Bardella (29 y.o. National Rally Chairman) emerges as a potential alternative, stating he could run if Le Pen is unable. Both Jacks see this as a likely and possibly strategically better outcome for the party.Climate Action & Protests (01:06:00)Discussion on Extinction Rebellion ...
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    1 hr and 31 mins
  • The Two Jacks 108 - Election 2025

    The Two Jacks 108 - Election 2025
    Apr 6 2025

    And we're off and running to a federal election on May 3. The Two Jacks review the polling and the campaign thus far with Albo and Labor firming in polls and the betting markets. JTI looks at a mistake-addled period from the Coalition and wonders if they have run out of road. We also got to find out what corflutes are!

    Meanwhile in the US, there is only Trump but how did this man get re-elected? Much of the blame falls on the Democrats as it is disclosed that senior Dems knew about the seriousness of Biden's cognisant decline and that Kamala was thrown up as the next woman in, while Obama and Pelosi in particular held serious doubts Harris could win.

    We also debunk Trump's nonsense about a 3rd term as JTI argues that Trump causes distractions when he is in trouble.

    In sport, Gout Gout comes second in a rare exciting time for Australian fans of track and field.


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    1 hr and 35 mins
  • Episode 182 - Signal - MAHA - Llama - ATOYME - PETE!

    Episode 182 - Signal - MAHA - Llama - ATOYME - PETE!
    Apr 2 2025

    We look at the depths of incompetence with the Signal saga - and look at the reality of whether all this is 'secure' or not.

    RFK Jr. tells people to take vitamin A for measles. They do. It gives them liver damage.

    Marky Mark and the Zucky Bunch decide to steal content from a website that steals content. How meta.

    We have a new segment! Always The Ones You Most Expect. And yeah, it's what you think it is. Depressingly long.

    And by god Pete's been to the USA and had a cracking time. Did he meet Don and Elon? Maybe. How much did it cost him? Other than his dignity.


    Enjoy!


    PS - don't forget 10% off at cbco.beer with CRP10 code!

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    1 hr and 41 mins