In this episode of Talk Property To Me, Luke Morrison from Belle Property in Newcastle shares valuable insights into the current property market in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie. As a specialist in the Minmi Fletcher and Maryland areas, Luke's expertise shines through as he discusses the strong market in the 500,000 to 1.5 million price range, particularly for first home buyers. He highlights the high demand in this bracket and the influx of buyers from inner-city Newcastle looking for larger family homes in outer areas like Fletcher. Luke also addresses the challenges of affordability in the region, pointing out the rising property prices and the impact on first home buyers. Additionally, the discussion covers the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market, buyer behavior shifts, and the use of auctions versus private treaties.

Timestamped summary of this episode:
00:00:00 - Introduction and Property Market Overview
The hosts introduce the guest, Luke Morrison from Bell Property in Newcastle, and discuss the property market in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie. They question whether the area has missed the boat in terms of property growth and discuss further potential growth.

00:06:21 - Demand for Properties and Auctions
Luke mentions increased open home numbers and outer area buyers showing interest in properties. He discusses the effectiveness of auctions for properties over 1.2 million in creating a sense of urgency and maximizing buyer engagement.

00:10:08 - Rising Property Values and Affordability
The conversation delves into the significant increase in property values (38.4%) compared to income growth (20%) since the start of COVID. They highlight the affordability issue in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, making it challenging for first home buyers to enter the market.

00:11:25 - First Home Buyers Challenges
Luke elaborates on the challenges faced by first home buyers, including the increase in average first home buyer budget to around 900k and the difficulties in finding properties below 800k to benefit from stamp duty concessions.

00:11:58 - Stamp Duty Benefits and Property Prices
The conversation concludes with a discussion on the sliding scale of stamp duty benefits based on property prices and the challenges of finding properties below 800k amidst rising property prices in the area.

00:12:27 - Property Market in Newcastle
Luke discusses the current property market figures in the north Lampton area and the potential for property value increase in Lake Macquarie Newcastle areas.

00:13:09 - Predictions on Interest Rate Decrease
The discussion revolves around predictions of interest rate decreases by economists, and the potential impact on property prices.

00:15:11 - Impact of Rate Decrease on Property Prices
The conversation delves into the psychology of rate decreases leading to increased property prices, and the potential half a percent decrease before the end of the year.

00:16:44 - Market Activity During School Holidays
The hosts discuss the impact of school holidays on market activity, with expectations of a slight dip and a potential boom after Anzac day.

00:19:45 - Impact of Age on Tolerance for Alcohol
The conversation takes a turn towards personal experiences with alcohol, discussing the impact of age on the tolerance for alcohol and the decision to stay sober.

ABOUT THE HOSTS

BRAD EAST
Brad East is the Managing Director of Wisebuy Home Loans. Brad is an award-winning mortgage broker and has helped thousands of clients gain finance to purchase properties. Wisebuy Home Loans is the go-to mortgage brokerage for clients wanting out-of-the-box applications approved.

Website → https://wisebuygroup.com.au

LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/newcastlemortgagebroker/

Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/bradeast_mortgagebroker/

Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/bradeastofficial

CASEY TAYLOR
Casey Taylor is the Managing Director of Taylored Property Welth who specializes in helping clients purchase high-performing investment properties. Casey has a huge amount of knowledge when it comes to property investment and will be sharing this with the listeners.

Website → https://tayloredpropertywealth.com.au

LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/wealth-property-buyersagent-investment-financialfreedom/

Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/casey.taylor_tpw_buyersagent/

Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/tayloredpropertywealth

In this episode of Talk Property To Me, hosts Brad East and Casey Taylor engage in a comprehensive analysis of the RBA meeting, economic indicators, and property market trends, offering valuable insights for listeners looking to understand the current landscape and make informed decisions in the property and finance sectors. With Casey's expertise, the conversation delves into the impact of RBA decisions on interest rates and inflation, challenges in the construction industry and housing supply, migration trends and housing demand, investor lending and property market confidence, and rental market pressures. With a critical perspective on economic and market forecasts, the episode emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making and thorough research for property investments and buying property. Casey's insights make this episode essential listening for property investors and potential homebuyers, providing a nuanced understanding of the complexities of the property market and guiding listeners towards informed decision-making in their property ventures.

Timestamped summary of this episode:
00:00:00 - RBA Meeting and Interest Rates
The RBA meeting held interest rates at 4.35%, citing concerns about rising fuel prices and inflation. Speculation about potential rate cuts in the future, with economists predicting a possible reduction by the end of the year.
00:07:50 - Property Market Numbers
Building approvals are significantly below the government's target, while overseas migration is increasing demand for housing. Despite more people coming into the country, construction businesses are collapsing, making it challenging to meet housing demands.
00:11:25 - Builder Caution and Listing Levels
Caution advised when choosing a builder due to the risk of builders going bankrupt. Listing levels are below five-year averages, leading to a shortage of available properties in the market.
00:12:34 - Investor Confidence and Rental Market
Investor lending is up 18.5%, indicating increased confidence in the property market. Low vacancy rates in major cities are putting pressure on the rental market, making it difficult to find available properties.
00:13:38 - Property Market Trends and Demand
Current property market trends reflect extremely low vacancy rates and minimal days on the market for properties, indicating high demand and strong investor interest in the market.
00:14:14 - Property Market Trends
Brad and Casey discuss the current property market trends, noting increased days on the market and varying growth rates across cities.
00:14:56 - City-specific Growth
The conversation highlights the growth rates in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, with some cities performing strongly while others remain flat.
00:16:09 - Quarterly Performance
Quarterly growth rates are compared, with Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth showing significant growth, while Melbourne and Sydney have varied performances.
00:17:19 - Rental Income and Gross Yields
The discussion covers the annual change in rents and the impact on gross yields, with Perth, Melbourne, and Adelaide showing substantial increases in rental income.
00:19:30 - Future Market Outlook
The conversation concludes with a positive outlook for the property market, emphasizing the importance of taking action now before rates reduce and competition increases.

ABOUT THE HOSTS

BRAD EAST
Brad East is the Managing Director of Wisebuy Home Loans. Brad is an award-winning mortgage broker and has helped thousands of clients gain finance to purchase properties. Wisebuy Home Loans is the go-to mortgage brokerage for clients wanting out-of-the-box applications approved.

Website → https://wisebuygroup.com.au

LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/newcastlemortgagebroker/

Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/bradeast_mortgagebroker/

Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/bradeastofficial

CASEY TAYLOR
Casey Taylor is the Managing Director of Taylored Property Wealth who specializes in helping clients purchase high-performing investment properties. Casey has a huge amount of knowledge when it comes to property investment and will be sharing this with the listeners.

Website → https://tayloredpropertywealth.com.au

LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/wealth-property-buyersagent-investment-financialfreedom/

Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/casey.taylor_tpw_buyersagent/

Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/tayloredpropertywealth

Can you time the real estate market? Discover the secrets of the 18.6-year property cycle and learn how to predict market trends for successful investments.

Join hosts Brad East and Casey Taylor on "Talk Property To Me" as they demystify the 18.6-year property cycle. Based on the work of Fred Harrison and Phil Anderson, this theory offers a unique lens for analyzing market patterns. Learn about the cycle's phases, historical evidence, and how to leverage this knowledge to make informed real estate decisions.

Prepare for the next market shift! Join our exclusive Facebook group for ongoing support and expert advice on Australian finance and real estate.

→ https://www.facebook.com/groups/talkpropertytome

Follow our podcast instagram here → https://www.instagram.com/talk_property_to_me_podcast/

EPISODE IN A GLANCE
00:00 - The 18.6 year real estate cycle theory and its origins from Phil Anderson's book "The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking." the different phases of the cycle - the first half, mid-cycle slowdown, and second half, with examples of past events triggering the slowdowns.
01:11 - Inspirations & Cycle Start: Discussing inspirations like Fred Harrison's work, pinpointing the start of the current cycle after the GFC recovery, and the mindset for investors.
03:32 - Market Timing: Warnings against trying to precisely time market cycles and identifying potential opportunities to buy according to the theory.
04:48 - Mid-Cycle: Characteristics of the mid-cycle slowdown phase, cities outperforming, factors triggering it, and expected market corrections.
06:52 - Second Half & Peak: Dynamics of the second half rally, cities benefiting, escalating demand/FOMO towards the "winner's curse" peak.
08:44 - Predictions & Australia: Predicted timing of the next major correction, caveats about theories, and characteristics of the Australian property market.
10:23 - Market Influence & Strategies: The importance of residential property to the Australian economy and strategies for preparing portfolios before a correction.
13:37 - Being Proactive & Indicators: Advice on being proactive, market signals like days on market/vendor discounts, and role of interest rates.

ABOUT THE HOSTS

BRAD EAST
Brad East is the Managing Director of Wisebuy Home Loans. Brad is an award-winning mortgage broker and has helped thousands of clients gain finance to purchase properties. Wisebuy Home Loans is the go-to mortgage brokerage for clients wanting out-of-the-box applications approved.

Website → https://wisebuygroup.com.au

LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/newcastlemortgagebroker/

Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/bradeast_mortgagebroker/

Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/bradeastofficial

CASEY TAYLOR
Casey Taylor is the Managing Director of Taylored Property Welth who specializes in helping clients purchase high-performing investment properties. Casey has a huge amount of knowledge when it comes to property investment and will be sharing this with the listeners.

Website → https://tayloredpropertywealth.com.au

LinkedIn → https://www.linkedin.com/in/wealth-property-buyersagent-investment-financialfreedom/

Instagram → https://www.instagram.com/casey.taylor_tpw_buyersagent/

Facebook → https://www.facebook.com/tayloredpropertywealth