We are officially in the phase of a campaign where decency gets tossed aside and the opposition research file is emptied directly into a 30-second spot.

One local ad targeting Cook County Commissioner Samantha Steele opens with footage from her DUI arrest and the now-infamous line, “I’m an elected official.” The ad’s structure is ruthlessly efficient. Lead with the footage. Transition from self-importance to alleged abuse of power. Tie it together with a tagline about rules not applying to her. On the nasty scale, it earns high marks. It is disciplined, rhythmic, and unforgiving.

Then there is the Texas Senate Republican primary, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Sen. John Cornyn are going directly at Attorney General Ken Paxton. Divorce. Allegations of infidelity. Wealth accumulation during scandal. Even insinuations about cultural issues designed to rile the base. It is the kind of ad that signals panic or confidence. Sometimes both.

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Contrast that with Paxton’s softer spot featuring his daughter speaking about him as a grandfather. It is the standard counterpunch to a scandal narrative: humanize, slow down, soften the edges. When campaigns spend that kind of money on family-centered messaging, it usually means they are trying to cover something sharp underneath.

The larger point is simple. As we approach primary day, the gloves are off.

Tariffs, Courts, and the $133 Billion Question

Beyond campaign warfare, the Trump administration is wrestling with the fallout from the Supreme Court striking down its sweeping tariff regime. Roughly $133 billion in collected duties now sit in limbo.

Officials are reportedly exploring ways to discourage refund claims, stretch out litigation, or even reimpose tariffs under new legal authorities. Trade lawyers argue the government previously committed to repayment with interest and that courts will scrutinize any attempt to sidestep that obligation.

This is less about ideology and more about arithmetic. If companies want their money back, they are likely to get it. The administration may find voluntary compliance from firms seeking goodwill, but legally, the leverage is limited. This is the bargaining phase after a judicial loss.

The Epstein Depositions Begin

Hillary Clinton was deposed behind closed doors in Washington as part of the House Oversight Committee’s work on the Epstein files. She maintained that she had no knowledge of wrongdoing involving Jeffrey Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell.

Democrats are pushing for a full, unedited transcript release to prevent selective leaks from shaping the narrative. Tensions flared when Rep. Lauren Boebert leaked an image of Clinton during the deposition, briefly halting proceedings.

Next comes Bill Clinton. For those with long political memories, that sense of history repeating itself is unavoidable. Whether anything explosive emerges remains to be seen, but the optics alone ensure sustained attention.

Transactional Politics in Real Time

Perhaps the most revealing political maneuver of the week came from New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. In an unscheduled trip to Washington, he reportedly presented President Trump with specific names of detained individuals and requested their release. One Columbia-affiliated detainee was subsequently freed.

The broader lesson is something I have observed for years. With Trump, flattery and direct engagement can yield tangible results. Politics is transactional. If you give him a headline he likes or a symbolic win, you may get policy movement in return. Mamdani appears to understand that dynamic.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:27 - Nasty Political Ads

00:10:52 - Interview with Kevin Ryan

00:51:33 - Update

00:51:47 - Tariffs

00:53:13 - Clintons

00:54:57 - Mamdani and Trump

00:59:13 - Interview with Kevin Ryan, con’t

01:38:33 - Wrap-up

I sat down with Capitol Hill reporter Juliegrace Brufke to unpack the explosive allegations surrounding Rep. Tony Gonzalez and his reported relationship with a former district staffer, whose tragic death last year has sent shockwaves through Texas politics and beyond. We walk through the timeline of the affair, the emergence of explicit text messages, claims of coercion, the husband’s response, and Gonzalez’s shifting public defense, including allegations of blackmail. Beyond the personal tragedy, we also examine the political fallout, from calls for Gonzalez’s resignation and the potential for an expulsion vote to the razor-thin House majority and what this scandal could mean for the upcoming Texas primary.

Disclaimer: This episode contains graphic descriptions of sexual misconduct and self-harm.

Follow Juliegrace Brufke on X/Twitter.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro and Disclaimer

03:25 - The Tony Gonzales Case with Juliegrace Brufke

07:16 - What We Know and Background

14:51 - New Details of the Case and Gonzales’, Local, and Congressional Responses

28:59 - Sealed Files, Endorsements, and Other Fallout

37:26 - Gonzales’ Relationships in Congress and Blackmail Allegation Details

41:53 - Wrap-up

President Trump says he will decide within 10 to 15 days whether to continue diplomatic efforts with Iran or authorize military action. On paper, talks in Geneva have been described as “positive.” In practice, the military posture tells a more urgent story. Significant naval assets are in place, including carrier strike groups positioned to project air power quickly.

What stands out is the operational framing. The buildup appears geared toward air and naval strikes, not large-scale ground deployments. Bombs in, not boots in. That distinction matters politically and strategically. A rapid, targeted operation is easier to message and easier to contain. A prolonged engagement is not.

I have no inside knowledge of what comes next. But the reporting suggests that every preparatory step short of execution has been taken. That does not guarantee action. It does mean the window for decision is real. If a strike happens, the political fallout will depend almost entirely on duration. Days are one thing. Weeks are another.

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Prince Andrew and the Epstein Fallout

Across the Atlantic, the Epstein document releases are producing consequences that are less sensational but more legally concrete than many expected. Andrew Montbatten-Windsor, formerly Prince Andrew, was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office and later released. The scrutiny centers not on lurid allegations alone, but on claims that confidential trade documents may have been shared with Jeffrey Epstein during Andrew’s tenure as a trade envoy.

That is the pattern emerging from the latest tranche of disclosures. The most actionable material involves documents, authority, and institutional misuse, not the more speculative narratives that dominate online conversation. Trade secrets and official privilege are prosecutable. Rumor is not.

If these allegations hold, the implications extend beyond Andrew personally. They could destabilize broader political relationships in the United Kingdom and intensify scrutiny of other high-profile Epstein associates. The sensational headlines grab attention, but it is the paper trail that moves prosecutors.

DHS Funding and Pre–State of the Union Brinkmanship

Back home, the Department of Homeland Security funding fight remains stalled. Democrats are demanding immigration enforcement reforms, including stricter warrant requirements, ending certain patrol practices, and unmasking field agents. Republicans have labeled those proposals red lines and accuse Democrats of leveraging the shutdown for political positioning ahead of the State of the Union.

Nothing substantive is likely to move before the president addresses Congress. The incentives run the other way. Democrats want to be seen as fighting. Republicans want to frame the impasse as obstruction. In the meantime, DHS operates in partial shutdown conditions, with essential personnel continuing work but long-term uncertainty hanging over the department.

The broader dynamic is familiar. Shutdowns are blunt instruments. They energize bases but rarely deliver maximal outcomes. Eventually, one side cuts a deal and angers its most committed supporters. The only open question is who blinks first and how much rhetorical damage accumulates before they do.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:11 - Dave Levinthal on Dems’ Midterm Fundraising

00:27:24 - Update

00:29:00 - Iran

00:33:30 - Former Prince Andrew Arrested

00:35:10 - DHS Funding Talks

00:38:20 - Karol Markowicz on Republican Vibes

01:21:35 - Wrap-up