A conversation with friend of the show Will Harris got my wheels turning. He pointed out something he was seeing in the UK press — Trump getting credit for what many are calling Biden’s Gaza peace deal. And yeah, I had missed that particular discourse, but it didn’t take long to see that the split wasn’t just overseas. It’s right here too. Some are arguing that the framework for this agreement was already in place under Biden, but now it’s Trump stepping in and sealing the deal. That’s not an unusual pattern in politics — one team builds, another finishes — but the way the Biden side is reacting is worth exploring.

Let’s be honest: getting a Middle East peace deal done is about the hardest thing you can try to accomplish in diplomacy. Saying you have a plan is one thing — implementing it in a region with as much distrust and complexity as the Middle East is a whole different story. It’s like drafting a diet and fitness routine and assuming the results will match the spreadsheet. Biden’s people floated frameworks, sure, but they couldn’t make the deal happen. I suspect that’s because they thought it would require applying pressure on Israel to end the war — and they didn’t want to be seen doing that. They wanted the outcome without owning the action.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Then there’s the idea that Biden deserved the credit even if Trump got the win. And this is where I find it all a little rich. Because I remember 2020. The Trump administration rolled out Operation Warp Speed — arguably one of the biggest policy successes of his term — and when Biden took over, they went out of their way to discredit everything Trump did. The narrative was that Biden had to rebuild the whole vaccination effort from scratch, even when it would’ve been politically smart to share credit or even use it to jab Trump from the left on vaccines as that issue started to shift.

Now the roles are reversed. The Biden team worked on the peace framework and now wants credit — even though the Trump administration finished the job. It’s not that I think they deserve nothing. There’s a case to be made that this deal, if it holds, spans both administrations. That the effort to find a resolution to an ugly, years-long war included meaningful contributions from both. But if you live by the sword of discrediting your predecessor at every turn, don’t be shocked when you die by it too.

I don’t think we’re about to see the Trump team break out the thank-you cards — and if a Nobel Peace Prize comes out of this, it’s going to have Trump’s name on it. Still, if they were smart, they’d acknowledge — maybe off the record — that having a working framework didn’t hurt. But the real lesson here is that a plan is just that — a plan. The deal is what matters. And once again, it turns out being the closer counts more than drawing up the play.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

03:13 - Gaza Peace Deal

11:47 - Update

12:04 - NYC Polling

13:58 - Letitia James

18:18 - Texas

21:14 - Interview with Kenneth Vogel

54:28- Wrap-up

I want to start today by explaining why my audio sounds like garbage. I don’t have my usual mic — or my webcam, or laptop, or clothes — because everything was stolen out of our rental car while we were eating at Burma Superstar in Oakland. I lived in this city for nearly a decade and never once got ‘bipped.’ This time, someone smashed the window, glass flying right over the car seat where my baby had just been sitting, and took every bag they could find. My wife’s stuff, my stuff — all gone. They even took the bag of stuffed animals. Apparently, those don’t fence for much.

Now, I don’t bring this up for pity. I know full well that parking a rental car in Oakland is like drawing a target on your back. But that’s exactly what bothers me — this idea that we deserve it. That the cost of living in a beautiful, culturally rich city like Oakland is rampant, normalized crime. And it’s not just Oakland. I don’t buy that this is the price of admission for living in cities like Chicago or New York either. These are cities with strong tax bases, vibrant economies, and in some cases — like here in San Francisco — literal gold rushes. I’m speaking to you now from the Bay Park, right next to the Chase Center, where the Warriors play. OpenAI’s offices are here. And yet one garage over, you’re stepping through fentanyl, addicts, and filth.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

What really got me was the reaction. When I told friends what happened, no one was surprised — just a shrug and “yeah, rental car.” No outrage. No concern. This isn’t just about me getting my stuff stolen. It’s about the fact that this kind of thing is treated as an unavoidable fact of life. And I get it — people here have empathy. But that empathy’s being weaponized. Because this isn’t just random desperation. If it were, they’d have taken the diaper bag. No, I think what we’re dealing with is organized crime. And no one seems interested in doing anything about it.

There’s no political will. I’m not calling for a police state, but I am saying that the city should want to stop this. It’s not just bad for tourists — it’s not good for the locals either. The criminals aren’t the ones getting rich. The neighborhoods that need better-paying jobs aren’t helped by a tourism industry that doesn’t exist because no one wants to visit a city where this is just what happens. I don’t think it’s generous to ignore that — to write this all off as unavoidable.

The kicker? When I called 911, they told me to go to a website. That was it. And look, I’ll be fine. My car rental’s covered by Amex we’re going to get home okay. But what does that say about the city — when a middle-class family gets robbed, and no one even pretends to care? There’s something broken here, and it’s not just the window.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro and Crime Thoughts

08:12 - Interview with Bill Scher

45:42 - Wrap-up

The Shutdown Senate Vote

The shutdown rolls on, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already said it is unlikely the Senate will vote this weekend. That means the government shutdown will extend into next week unless something changes Friday morning. He criticized Democrats for demanding an extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies in the stopgap bill and insisted negotiations must begin only once the government reopens. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is predicting GOP unity will falter as the shutdown drags on, but I’m not convinced.

From where I sit, the numbers tell the story. Three Democrats voted with Republicans last time. Rand Paul opposes continuing resolutions, so Republicans will need eight Democrats to reach 60 votes because J.D. Vance is the tie breaker. Every time the Senate votes, I’m watching to see if more than three Democrats side with Republicans — that’s the real signal of where this is going.

I don’t believe Democrats are built for shutdowns. They’re posturing as if they’re ready to see this through, but the longer it goes the more likely rank and file members will embarrass Chuck Schumer into ending it. The real pain — furloughs, firings, and cuts to the federal workforce — is only going to show up if this lasts into next week. That’s when the Russ Vought part of the story kicks in, and that’s when this gets serious.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Abigail Spanberger in Virginia

Former Representative Abigail Spanberger is leading Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears by 10 points in the governor’s race, 52 to 42, according to a new Emerson College and Hill survey conducted September 28 and 29. Early voting is already underway with more than 146,000 ballots cast. Among those voters, Spanberger leads 60 to 38 and still holds a 50 to 43 edge among those yet to vote.

Her gains have come from independents, men, and younger voters. Independents back her by 19 points, men are evenly split, and voters under 50 favor her by 27 points. History suggests the party that is not in the White House usually wins the Virginia governor’s race. Based on that, I’d bet Spanberger, even though this isn’t exactly an electric matchup.

The only real advantage Sears has is the men’s and women’s sports issue — a culture war topic, not a kitchen table one. I don’t think that will be enough, especially in Northern Virginia, which is heavily government dependent and angry at the president. Add on Sears not being a great candidate and Spanberger looks far stronger heading into November.

Bailouts are Back

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Trump administration will announce substantial support for U.S. farmers next week, likely funded by tariff revenue. Soybean growers have been hit hard as China has halted U.S. purchases during their trade war. Bessent accused Beijing of using farmers as hostages in negotiations but pledged aid, noting their loyalty to Trump.

He discussed the plan with the president and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, but details and costs remain unclear. Argentina’s discounted soybean sales to China have undercut U.S. farmers and stoked tension. Bailouts are back, and this is classic Trump — he’s never been a fiscal hawk and has no problem using the federal government’s pocketbook to shape the world as he sees fit.

That’s where things stand. Farmers are hurting, the administration is signaling payouts, and we’ll see next week how big the support really is.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro and Synagogue Shooting

00:03:47 - Interview with Gloria Young

00:34:28 - Update

00:34:44 - Shutdown

00:38:08 - Abigail Spanberger

00:40:18 - Farmers

00:41:49 - Interview with Gloria Young (con’t)

01:03:18 - Wrap-up

As I record this episode, we are on the edge — maybe already over it, by the time you read this — of a government shutdown. And I want to give you a bit of the behind-the-scenes intel I picked up that helps explain how we got here. According to one of my sources on the Hill (a Republican, for the record), the read is that Chuck Schumer is locked in. He’s in a “dark place,” unwilling to budge, and if anything’s going to change, it’ll come from other Democrats. That’s been the drumbeat here: Schumer can’t blink. If he does, he opens himself up to a leadership challenge. And that’s the one thing a Senate leader absolutely cannot do.

The Democrats are trying to pitch the shutdown as a way to stand up for healthcare — that’s the messaging. But the problem is that if the government shuts down, there are a lot of healthcare extensions and services that begin to expire immediately. I read off a list of them: community health centers, Medicare adjustments, ambulance payment programs, disaster medical systems — the works. The irony is that the parts Democrats hate the most about the Trump administration don’t shut down. ICE doesn’t go anywhere. Deportations still happen. Those are essential — and Trump’s people decide what counts as essential.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The fight, according to Democrats, is over Obamacare subsidies and Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill. But those cuts don’t even kick in until after the midterms. Meanwhile, essential Democratic priorities lose funding the moment the lights go out. And that’s the trap. They’re betting that Trump wants to make a deal — that he wants to look like a bipartisan dealmaker. Maybe they believe they can spin this into a win. But let’s remember what happened the last time Trump tried that in 2018: he got nothing.

If they’re hoping for Trump to ride in and rescue them, that’s a risky game. The GOP Senate and House leaders — Thune and Johnson — are more than happy to let this ride. Hell, there are people in that party who love a shutdown. It’s a stress test for them, a chance to see what happens when the government turns off. And the data doesn’t look good for Democrats. A New York Times/Siena poll had just 27% of all respondents — and only a slim plurality of Democrats — supporting the idea of a shutdown if demands aren’t met. That’s a brutal place to be when you’re the one pulling the trigger.

So here we are: Schumer boxed in, the party divided, and the shutdown clock striking midnight. Maybe there’s a backdoor deal. Maybe Trump throws them a rope. But right now? The only guaranteed outcome is pain.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:41 - Shutdown

00:08:42 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw

00:30:33 - Update

00:31:21 - Hegseth’s Meeting

00:34:42 - Schweikert for Gov

00:36:09 - NYT Polling on Shutdown

00:37:06 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw (con’t)

01:15:30 - Wrap-up

The looming government shutdown — now just days away — has escalated dramatically. Russ Vought, Trump’s former OMB director and the key architect behind the original administration firings, circulated a memo this week warning agencies to prepare for a “reduction in force” if funding lapses. The message was clear: if there’s a shutdown, he plans to fire as many people as possible and make those firings stick. In his words, the Democrats would be handing him a gift. It’s what he’s always wanted to do, and he’s daring them to let it happen.

Democrats, for their part, view this as a scare tactic, a way to push them into passing a clean continuing resolution. They’ve been offered essentially the best deal possible under GOP control: Biden-era spending levels and no controversial riders. Still, they’re rejecting it. Even lawmakers from districts and states with large numbers of federal employees — Chris Van Hollen, Glenn Ivey, Patty Murray, Mark Warner — are standing firm. For them, this is about resisting what they see as Trump-aligned plans to gut the federal workforce.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Some Republicans are framing the mass firing threat as leverage, not a goal. Bernie Moreno said he supports the memo as a negotiating tactic but wants to avoid a shutdown. Susan Collins and Mike Lawler both expressed discomfort with using federal workers as bargaining chips but pointed out that the solution is simple: just vote for the clean CR. Speaker Mike Johnson, meanwhile, is pressing hard, accusing Democrats of preferring illegal immigrants to federal employees by insisting on funding Obamacare and Medicare subsidies that Republicans argue benefit non-citizens.

So where does that leave us? A shutdown happens when Congress fails to pass, and the President fails to sign, either the full appropriations bill or a continuing resolution before the start of the fiscal year. When that happens, agencies are prohibited from spending money, except on activities deemed essential to life, property, or national security. Non-essential employees are furloughed, contractors go unpaid, and essential workers like the military and TSA keep working without pay. We’re set to enter this world on October 1st.

Everything from passport processing to regulatory enforcement gets paused. Federal contractors, especially in areas around DC, take a huge financial hit. Social security checks, Medicare, and mail delivery continue. And while federal workers usually get back pay, contractors often don’t. A shutdown only ends when Congress passes and the President signs a funding bill. That’s why I say this isn’t an “if,” but a “when.” The government will shut down; the only question is how long Democrats are willing to hold out before taking the same deal they’re rejecting now. I don’t think it’ll be long. This isn’t their kind of fight, and they’re about to find out why.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

03:12 - 107 Days

06:30 - Gov Shutdown

15:30 - Update

15:49 - Hegseth Meeting

18:04 - Kimmel Ratings

19:44 - TikTok

20:43 - Interview with Tom Merritt

55:49 - Wrap-up

The government is shutting down. I guess I don’t know for sure, because it hasn’t happened yet, but… it’s happening. The clearest sign came early: Trump said he’s not meeting with the Democrats. That officially pulls the plug on the last off-ramp. And while I can’t say it’s definite until it’s on the books, every indicator points in that direction.

Leadership on the Democratic side isn’t exactly riding high right now. Hakeem Jeffries is under pressure from both his left and his center — the progressives want more progressive action, and the moderates are feeling the heat from MAGA-friendlier districts. It’s not a great time for him to be vulnerable, especially with redistricting battles looming. Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, still has the earliest months of this Trump administration burned into his memory, failing to shut the government down back then that got him absolutely roasted by his own side. He knows what time it is. If he doesn’t want to lose his job, he needs to be seen doing something. That something is this shutdown.

Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Democrats usually enjoy the shutdown game — when Republicans are the ones pulling the trigger. It lets them run the “they hate government” narrative. But now they’re the ones doing it, and that’s unfamiliar ground. It’s not their comfort zone — and it comes with a risk. They tried every angle. They talked to Johnson. They talked to Thune. And then, in what was probably more performance than real strategy, they tried Trump. Trump publicly laughed it off. So now, what are they left with?

The clean CR that already passed the House is still sitting there. That’s funding at Biden levels — not exactly a win for Republicans. But because the Democrats need to do something, they’ve started trying to wrap ACA subsidy extensions and Medicaid cut reversals into the mix. The strategy is a little muddled: are they playing offense or just avoiding looking weak? Either way, without Trump at the table, they’ve got no play left except one. And that’s how we get to where we’re at.

Here’s the question that’s not being asked enough — how does it end? Democrats aren’t built for long-term shutdowns. Their base doesn’t rally around it the same way. The longer it goes, the more Trump gets to talk, and he will talk. If it drags out past a month, Democrats lose. So that means the shutdown won’t last past a month. And if they’re going to vote for the clean CR in the end anyway, what’s the point of all of this? We’ll see. But from where I’m sitting, there’s no chance the government doesn’t shut down.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:07:13 - Gov Shutdown

00:16:47 - Update

00:18:00 - Kimmel

00:26:26 - Tylenol

00:34:25 - TPUSA

00:38:22 - Interview with Claire Meynial

01:23:40 - Wrap-up