We are officially in the phase of a campaign where decency gets tossed aside and the opposition research file is emptied directly into a 30-second spot.

One local ad targeting Cook County Commissioner Samantha Steele opens with footage from her DUI arrest and the now-infamous line, “I’m an elected official.” The ad’s structure is ruthlessly efficient. Lead with the footage. Transition from self-importance to alleged abuse of power. Tie it together with a tagline about rules not applying to her. On the nasty scale, it earns high marks. It is disciplined, rhythmic, and unforgiving.

Then there is the Texas Senate Republican primary, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Sen. John Cornyn are going directly at Attorney General Ken Paxton. Divorce. Allegations of infidelity. Wealth accumulation during scandal. Even insinuations about cultural issues designed to rile the base. It is the kind of ad that signals panic or confidence. Sometimes both.

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Contrast that with Paxton’s softer spot featuring his daughter speaking about him as a grandfather. It is the standard counterpunch to a scandal narrative: humanize, slow down, soften the edges. When campaigns spend that kind of money on family-centered messaging, it usually means they are trying to cover something sharp underneath.

The larger point is simple. As we approach primary day, the gloves are off.

Tariffs, Courts, and the $133 Billion Question

Beyond campaign warfare, the Trump administration is wrestling with the fallout from the Supreme Court striking down its sweeping tariff regime. Roughly $133 billion in collected duties now sit in limbo.

Officials are reportedly exploring ways to discourage refund claims, stretch out litigation, or even reimpose tariffs under new legal authorities. Trade lawyers argue the government previously committed to repayment with interest and that courts will scrutinize any attempt to sidestep that obligation.

This is less about ideology and more about arithmetic. If companies want their money back, they are likely to get it. The administration may find voluntary compliance from firms seeking goodwill, but legally, the leverage is limited. This is the bargaining phase after a judicial loss.

The Epstein Depositions Begin

Hillary Clinton was deposed behind closed doors in Washington as part of the House Oversight Committee’s work on the Epstein files. She maintained that she had no knowledge of wrongdoing involving Jeffrey Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell.

Democrats are pushing for a full, unedited transcript release to prevent selective leaks from shaping the narrative. Tensions flared when Rep. Lauren Boebert leaked an image of Clinton during the deposition, briefly halting proceedings.

Next comes Bill Clinton. For those with long political memories, that sense of history repeating itself is unavoidable. Whether anything explosive emerges remains to be seen, but the optics alone ensure sustained attention.

Transactional Politics in Real Time

Perhaps the most revealing political maneuver of the week came from New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani. In an unscheduled trip to Washington, he reportedly presented President Trump with specific names of detained individuals and requested their release. One Columbia-affiliated detainee was subsequently freed.

The broader lesson is something I have observed for years. With Trump, flattery and direct engagement can yield tangible results. Politics is transactional. If you give him a headline he likes or a symbolic win, you may get policy movement in return. Mamdani appears to understand that dynamic.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:27 - Nasty Political Ads

00:10:52 - Interview with Kevin Ryan

00:51:33 - Update

00:51:47 - Tariffs

00:53:13 - Clintons

00:54:57 - Mamdani and Trump

00:59:13 - Interview with Kevin Ryan, con’t

01:38:33 - Wrap-up

I sat down with Capitol Hill reporter Juliegrace Brufke to unpack the explosive allegations surrounding Rep. Tony Gonzalez and his reported relationship with a former district staffer, whose tragic death last year has sent shockwaves through Texas politics and beyond. We walk through the timeline of the affair, the emergence of explicit text messages, claims of coercion, the husband’s response, and Gonzalez’s shifting public defense, including allegations of blackmail. Beyond the personal tragedy, we also examine the political fallout, from calls for Gonzalez’s resignation and the potential for an expulsion vote to the razor-thin House majority and what this scandal could mean for the upcoming Texas primary.

Disclaimer: This episode contains graphic descriptions of sexual misconduct and self-harm.

Follow Juliegrace Brufke on X/Twitter.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro and Disclaimer

03:25 - The Tony Gonzales Case with Juliegrace Brufke

07:16 - What We Know and Background

14:51 - New Details of the Case and Gonzales’, Local, and Congressional Responses

28:59 - Sealed Files, Endorsements, and Other Fallout

37:26 - Gonzales’ Relationships in Congress and Blackmail Allegation Details

41:53 - Wrap-up

President Trump says he will decide within 10 to 15 days whether to continue diplomatic efforts with Iran or authorize military action. On paper, talks in Geneva have been described as “positive.” In practice, the military posture tells a more urgent story. Significant naval assets are in place, including carrier strike groups positioned to project air power quickly.

What stands out is the operational framing. The buildup appears geared toward air and naval strikes, not large-scale ground deployments. Bombs in, not boots in. That distinction matters politically and strategically. A rapid, targeted operation is easier to message and easier to contain. A prolonged engagement is not.

I have no inside knowledge of what comes next. But the reporting suggests that every preparatory step short of execution has been taken. That does not guarantee action. It does mean the window for decision is real. If a strike happens, the political fallout will depend almost entirely on duration. Days are one thing. Weeks are another.

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Prince Andrew and the Epstein Fallout

Across the Atlantic, the Epstein document releases are producing consequences that are less sensational but more legally concrete than many expected. Andrew Montbatten-Windsor, formerly Prince Andrew, was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office and later released. The scrutiny centers not on lurid allegations alone, but on claims that confidential trade documents may have been shared with Jeffrey Epstein during Andrew’s tenure as a trade envoy.

That is the pattern emerging from the latest tranche of disclosures. The most actionable material involves documents, authority, and institutional misuse, not the more speculative narratives that dominate online conversation. Trade secrets and official privilege are prosecutable. Rumor is not.

If these allegations hold, the implications extend beyond Andrew personally. They could destabilize broader political relationships in the United Kingdom and intensify scrutiny of other high-profile Epstein associates. The sensational headlines grab attention, but it is the paper trail that moves prosecutors.

DHS Funding and Pre–State of the Union Brinkmanship

Back home, the Department of Homeland Security funding fight remains stalled. Democrats are demanding immigration enforcement reforms, including stricter warrant requirements, ending certain patrol practices, and unmasking field agents. Republicans have labeled those proposals red lines and accuse Democrats of leveraging the shutdown for political positioning ahead of the State of the Union.

Nothing substantive is likely to move before the president addresses Congress. The incentives run the other way. Democrats want to be seen as fighting. Republicans want to frame the impasse as obstruction. In the meantime, DHS operates in partial shutdown conditions, with essential personnel continuing work but long-term uncertainty hanging over the department.

The broader dynamic is familiar. Shutdowns are blunt instruments. They energize bases but rarely deliver maximal outcomes. Eventually, one side cuts a deal and angers its most committed supporters. The only open question is who blinks first and how much rhetorical damage accumulates before they do.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:11 - Dave Levinthal on Dems’ Midterm Fundraising

00:27:24 - Update

00:29:00 - Iran

00:33:30 - Former Prince Andrew Arrested

00:35:10 - DHS Funding Talks

00:38:20 - Karol Markowicz on Republican Vibes

01:21:35 - Wrap-up

The Iran situation remains murky. President Trump says he will be indirectly involved in renewed nuclear talks in Geneva, describing them as “very important,” while simultaneously ordering a significant military buildup in the Persian Gulf. A second aircraft carrier. Additional F-35s. Diplomacy and deterrence running in parallel.

I am genuinely unsure what the endgame is here. Is this Venezuela-style pressure, where decapitation and economic realignment are the model? Or is this about crippling missile capacity and nuclear infrastructure? Iran is not Venezuela. It has ideological cohesion in ways Caracas did not. It has true believers.

What confuses me most is timing. If there was a moment of peak internal pressure inside Iran, it may have passed. Now we are left with talks that may or may not be sincere, layered on top of military posturing that may or may not be a prelude to action. I would not be shocked by a strike. I would not be shocked by a deal. That is not analysis. That is honest uncertainty.

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The DHS Shutdown and Democratic Leverage

Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security remains in shutdown limbo. Senate Democrats blocked a stopgap funding bill demanding tighter warrant requirements, unmasking of agents, expanded body camera usage, and changes to patrol tactics after controversial shootings. Republicans argue ICE funding continues under prior legislation and most DHS workers are deemed essential anyway.

So far, public disruption has been limited. But if TSA agents and other DHS personnel miss paychecks long enough, pressure will build. My priors here are consistent: Democrats believe they are in a popular posture standing up to Trump. They are, at least rhetorically. But at some point, the government has to reopen fully. And any deal negotiated from the minority will disappoint the activists who demanded maximal reform.

That is the trap of shutdown politics. You escalate to energize your base. Then you have to compromise to govern.

Jesse Jackson and a Bygone Era

Finally, Reverend Jesse Jackson died at 84. Whatever your partisan perspective, he was a towering figure in American political history, a bridge between the civil rights movement and modern Democratic presidential politics. He changed what was imaginable in national campaigns. His influence on leaders like Barack Obama is undeniable.

The era he represented feels distant now. The fights are different. The coalitions are different. Even the tone is different. But history has long shadows, and Jackson cast one.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:35 - Uncle Luke Running For Congress

00:07:51 - Polymarket Odds for Texas Senate Primaries

00:26:04 - Update

00:26:18 - Jesse Jackson

00:28:52 - Iran

00:32:44 - DHS Shutdown

00:36:56 - Polymarket Odds for California, Maine, and Michigan

01:02:03 - Wrap-up

Over the past couple of weeks, Senate Republicans have come up with this plan to bring back the talking filibuster, all in an effort to pass the SAVE America Act. On paper, it is clever. Force Democrats to physically hold the floor to block voter ID legislation that polls as an 80-20 issue. Make them read the phone book. Make them look unserious. Put Jon Ossoff and other swing-state Democrats on the record defending a position that is wildly unpopular nationally.

I actually think it would be smart politics. It’s also never going to happen.

The reason is simple: Senate institutionalists. John Thune does not want to be the Republican leader who weakened the filibuster, even in a limited way. The Senate sees itself as the “august deliberative body,” not the truck stop chaos of the House. No one wants on their résumé that they chipped away at the 60-vote threshold. The irony is that nothing in the rules prevents a talking filibuster. It simply fell out of use. But reviving it would still be seen as escalation.

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And escalation is not what senators do to each other lightly. They are there for six years. They share committee rooms and green rooms. They nurse grudges quietly. They do not enjoy public humiliation.

So while conservatives may draw up elaborate procedural roadmaps, this one caps out at tradition. And tradition, in the Senate, wins more often than base energy.

The Shutdown Nobody Wins

Meanwhile, we are entering an actual shutdown this weekend because Senate Democrats blocked a Department of Homeland Security funding bill after the House had already left town. Democrats escalated their demands from a handful of changes to what is effectively a multi-point overhaul. The problem is not moral clarity. The problem is math.

When you shut down the government, history suggests you rarely get what you want. Often, you get nothing. The Trump White House already has a blueprint from the last shutdown: keep the pain manageable, move money around where possible, and wait for pressure to build. If that pressure intensifies, especially around TSA delays, FEMA responses, or spring break travel, Democrats will face the same brutal reality every minority party faces during a shutdown.

Just like in the fall, they will have to cut a deal.

And when they do, their base will not celebrate incremental concessions. They will accuse leadership of caving. The drawdown of ICE activity in Minneapolis, which could have been framed as a win condition, has already been overtaken by new demands.

That is the trap. You negotiate past your leverage point because your base expects maximalism. Then you are left explaining why the maximalist outcome was never achievable in the first place.

A State of the Union Circus

All of this sets up a February 24th State of the Union that looks increasingly like a circus. Some House Democrats are openly discussing protests, despite Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urging restraint.

We have seen these moves before. Last year’s disruptions did not damage Trump. If anything, they made him look calmer by comparison. When the visuals are heckling and signage next to moments crafted for television, the protest becomes the spectacle, not the message.

The deeper issue is control. Neither Mike Johnson nor Hakeem Jeffries appears to have ironclad command over their conferences. The margins are thin. The base pressure is intense. And Trump remains such a polarizing figure that restraint feels like betrayal to some members.

So expect noise. Expect moments engineered for viral clips. And expect very little institutional discipline.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:03 - Talking Filibuster DOA

00:18:06 - Update

00:18:33 - Shutdown

00:22:36 - ICE in Minnesota

00:25:50 - Democrats SOTU Plans

00:28:55 - Interview with Stella Tsantekidou on UK Politics and Epstein

01:13:06 - Wrap-up

Jasmine Crockett has a new ad, and it’s everything you’d expect out of 2026 so far. It’s a TV ad utilizing an anime style — and potentially some AI. It is inventive, loud, and undeniably designed to cut through clutter. In a vacuum, it might even be smart. Anime specifically has real cultural traction, especially with younger and Black voters, and the ad signals energy in a race where attention is scarce.

The problem is context. Crockett is getting creative on television very late in the game, after being outspent roughly 19 to 1, and amid reporting that suggests her campaign lacks clear leadership and strategic direction. The theory of the campaign seems to be that message intensity can compensate for organizational weakness. That is a risky bet. Strong words without disciplined execution rarely scale, especially statewide.

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What turned this race from messy to combustible was Colin Allred’s response to an influencer claim that James Talarico privately referred to him as a “mediocre Black man.” Allred did not hedge. He endorsed Crockett, appeared with her, and went on television saying Talarico refused to apologize. That escalated the race instantly.

At this point, Crockett’s campaign is no longer merely contrasting policy or style. It is prosecuting a character case aimed directly at Black voters. If there were any functional party leadership involved, they would be trying to de-escalate this immediately. Burning Talarico to the ground may help Crockett in the primary, but it risks destroying a Democrat many believed could be viable in future statewide races. Instead, the attacks have intensified, and Talarico’s response has been uneven at best.

His ads have not helped. They feel staged, overly cinematic, and oddly reverential, as if he is preaching rather than connecting. Authenticity is supposed to be his calling card, yet his campaign keeps placing a layer of polish between him and voters. That disconnect is now showing up in the data.

A University of Houston poll taken in late January shows Crockett up nine points on Talarico, despite her spending disadvantage. That is a flashing warning sign. It suggests Talarico is not breaking through, and that Democratic primary voters are responding more to confrontation than caution.

On the Republican side, the implications are enormous. If Crockett emerges as the nominee, the GOP path depends heavily on who survives its own primary. John Cornyn remains the establishment preference, backed by Trump’s former campaign leadership, but recent polling shows Ken Paxton leading. If Paxton is the nominee, Republicans will have to spend aggressively in a race they would normally ignore. If Cornyn is the nominee, the race likely snaps back to lean Republican.

That is why this primary matters beyond Texas Democrats. A Crockett win followed by a Paxton nomination would force Republicans to defend ground they assumed was safe. If Texas flips, even into wave watch territory, it will not be because demographics finally arrived. It will be because campaigns failed, misjudged, or overreached at exactly the wrong moment.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:09 - Texas Dem Senate Primary

00:17:26 - Update

00:17:47 - DHS Funding

00:20:27 - Epstein

00:25:44 - Susan Collins

00:26:41 - Tom Merritt on AI’s Impact on the Midterms

01:07:49 - Wrap-up

The renewed focus on Jeffrey Epstein has pulled Bill and Hillary Clinton back into a political posture they know better than almost anyone. Hillary Clinton’s decision to publicly challenge House Oversight Chair James Comer and call for a live, televised hearing was not defensive or impulsive. It was classic Clinton strategy. When scrutiny becomes unavoidable, they prefer exposure on their own terms rather than silence that allows suspicion to metastasize.

This approach is rooted in decades of experience. From Arkansas through the White House years and into the post-presidency era, the Clintons have learned that retreat signals weakness. Engagement, even aggressive engagement, creates opportunities to reframe. By demanding a public forum, Hillary Clinton is betting that structure, preparation, and confidence outweigh the risk of unpredictable questioning. It is a wager based on a long track record.

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There is a widespread assumption that a public deposition would inevitably turn into a referendum on Donald Trump or spiral into uncontrollable chaos. I do not buy that. For such a moment to damage the Clintons meaningfully, Bill Clinton would have to concede proximity to wrongdoing he has denied for years. That would contradict every instinct the Clinton political machine has ever displayed.

Instead, the more likely outcome is disciplined deflection. Epstein becomes a cautionary tale about elite misconduct broadly defined. Republicans become opportunists exploiting tragedy. Trump becomes the moral counterexample. This is not improvisation. It is choreography. The Clintons are exceptionally skilled at narrowing the scope of inquiry while expanding the scope of blame.

What we are watching is not a reinvention, but a revival. The logic of the “vast right wing conspiracy” never disappeared. It simply went dormant. In moments like this, it reemerges because it still works with Democratic audiences inclined to see investigations as partisan weapons rather than truth-seeking exercises.

That does not mean the Epstein issue goes away. It means it gets absorbed into a familiar frame where accountability is abstract and suspicion is redistributed. For Democrats privately uneasy about defending Bill Clinton, this strategy offers an escape hatch. For Republicans hoping for a decisive reckoning, it is a reminder of how resilient the Clintons remain under pressure.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:05:45 - Clintons

00:24:37 - Update

00:24:53 - Jobs

00:28:15 - Maine Polls

00:29:50 - Texas

00:32:19 - Kirk Bado on the State of DC

01:03:29 - Wrap-up (and Bonus Crazy Political Ad)

Texas has found itself in the spotlight over the past few days, and for pretty interesting reasons at that. First, we saw a Texas special election that flipped a deeply Republican district at the state level. In a seat Donald Trump carried by roughly 17 points, Democrats managed to pull off a low-turnout win. This was not a wave election, and pretending otherwise does not help anyone. Special elections are weird, electorates are tiny, and turnout models collapse. But the direction still matters.

However, Republicans continue to rely on a coalition that is extremely Trump-centric. When he is not on the ballot, participation drops, especially among lower-propensity voters. Democrats, by contrast, have been showing up consistently in off-cycle contests. While that does not guarantee success in a general election year, it is enough to justify early anxiety. If Republicans cannot reliably mobilize their voters without Trump himself, Texas becomes less static than it has been for decades.

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That volatility should be a gift to Democrats. Instead, the Texas Democratic Senate primary is rapidly becoming a cautionary tale. Senator John Cornyn’s seat is up, Ken Paxton is leading on the Republican side, and Democrats should be salivating. Paxton is polarizing, ethically radioactive, and deeply divisive. In theory, this is the opening Democrats have been waiting for.

In practice, the primary is turning ugly. James Talarico, a rising star with genuine crossover appeal, now finds himself in a five-alarm crisis after a viral allegation that he described Colin Allred as a “mediocre Black man” while expecting to face him in the race. The context, the intent, and the precise wording are now almost secondary. What matters is that the damage landed squarely where a Texas Democrat cannot afford it: trust with Black voters.

Colin Allred’s response was not subtle. He went directly at Talarico, endorsed Jasmine Crockett, and framed the controversy as a racial and moral failing, not a messaging mistake. Talarico’s apology attempted to split the difference, acknowledging poor phrasing without directly calling the accuser a liar. That move may have been legally cautious, but politically it validated the outrage. With the primary weeks away and a runoff likely, Democrats are now locked into a prolonged intraparty fight that makes the eventual nominee weaker, not stronger.

Zooming out, this is why Texas continues to torment Democrats. Structural conditions occasionally line up. Republican candidates overreach. Demographic change inches forward. But the moment opportunity appears, the coalition turns inward. Instead of clearing the field and running a disciplined campaign against Ken Paxton, Democrats are now litigating identity, intent, and trust in public.

The tragedy here is not ideological. It is tactical. Texas Democrats do not need a perfect candidate. They need a boring one who does not give voters a reason to hesitate. Every additional week spent tearing down a potential nominee is a week Paxton gets for free. If Democrats manage to lose this race, it will not be because Texas is unwinnable. It will be because they couldn’t get out of their own way.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:37 - Drama in Texas

00:18:02 - Michael Cohen on Texas, Midterms, and More

00:38:36 - Update

00:38:52 - Clintons

00:41:00 - Shutdown

00:43:15 - Republicans’ House Margin

00:44:22 - Michael Cohen on Texas, Midterms, and More, con’t

01:19:52 - Wrap-up