Episodes

  • How Dissent Saved The World in 13 Days

    How Dissent Saved The World in 13 Days
    Aug 16 2025
    October 14th, 1962. A U-2 spy plane snaps photos that change everything: Soviet missiles in Cuba, capable of reaching most of the United States within five minutes.For the next 13 days, every decision could end human civilization or save it.Here's what should terrify you: if Kennedy had used the same decision-making process that led to the Bay of Pigs disaster, you wouldn't be reading this. We'd all be radioactive dust.Instead, he did something today's leaders would consider weakness: he deliberately made himself vulnerable to disagreement.When Your General Calls You Neville ChamberlainPicture this: Air Force Chief of Staff Curtis LeMay pounds the table, demands immediate airstrikes on Cuba, then looks Kennedy in the eye and compares him to Neville Chamberlain—the appeaser whose weakness led to World War II.In most administrations, calling the President a coward is career suicide.Kennedy didn't fire LeMay. He didn't shut down the discussion. He thanked him for the assessment.Because after Bay of Pigs, Kennedy had learned something that saved the world: when everyone agrees with you, that's when you should be most terrified.The Process That Prevented ArmageddonKennedy's Cuban Missile Crisis approach was revolutionary:He assigned advisors to argue different positions—whether they believed them or not. Their job was finding flaws, not agreement.He left the room during crucial discussions. The moment Kennedy stepped out, advisors who'd been reluctant to express doubts became brutally honest about military action's risks.He encouraged his own brother to change his mind. Attorney General Robert Kennedy initially said "I think we should take Cuba back." After days of deliberation: "Any action we take against Cuba will lead to nuclear war."If they'd gone with their first instinct—attack—we'd likely have had nuclear war.The Solution Nobody Saw ComingThrough brutal intellectual combat, they found a third option: naval "quarantine" plus diplomatic pressure. Not the military's preferred invasion. Not the doves' "do nothing." Something entirely new that emerged only through systematic disagreement.Behind the scenes, Robert Kennedy conducted secret negotiations. The final deal: Soviets remove missiles in exchange for a public US pledge not to invade Cuba and secret removal of American missiles from Turkey.October 28th: Khrushchev announced withdrawal. Nuclear war avoided.This wasn't luck—it was process.The "Soft Underbelly" StrategyKennedy understood something today's leaders don't: strong leadership requires making yourself vulnerable to disagreement.You need a "hard shell" of core values to handle having a "soft underbelly" that advisors can poke and prod. Kennedy could withstand being called Neville Chamberlain because he knew who he was and what he stood for.Today's leaders have it backwards. Hard shells against disagreement, soft underbellies on values. They can't tolerate challenge because they're not sure what they believe.The Contrast with TodayFast-forward to 2025: The FBI uses polygraph tests to identify employees who said something negative about leadership. Not spies. Dissenters.Forty percent of FBI field offices have lost top agents—purged for conducting legitimate investigations political leadership didn't like.Cabinet meetings are North Korean-style tribute sessions. Press corps filled with loyalists asking softball questions.This is the exact Bay of Pigs dynamic, but on purpose. We know better. We have Kennedy's example. We understand the consequences. And we're choosing groupthink anyway.When Reality Becomes OptionalWe're implementing tariff policies that contradict economic research. Removing vaccine preservatives based on perception, not science. Investigating "weather manipulation" everyone knows doesn't exist.When a reporter questioned the press secretary's economics understanding, she responded: "How dare you question my understanding?"But questioning is literally the job. If you can't handle scrutiny, you don't belong in leadership.The Architecture of DisasterKennedy learned hard lessons in Cuba's swamps, paid with 1,400 lives, then used that knowledge to prevent nuclear war.We're learning nothing.We're systematically recreating disaster conditions:Purging competent advisors who might disagreeElevating loyalty over truthTreating dissent as betrayalCreating echo chambers where bad ideas go unchallengedKennedy's job wasn't being liked—it was making good decisions. Good decisions require honest advisors willing to tell uncomfortable truths.What You Can DoIn meetings: Ask "What could go wrong?" when everyone's nodding. Be the devil's advocate.As a manager: Create processes encouraging disagreement. Assign people to argue against your preferred option. Leave the room so people can speak freely.As a citizen: Demand leaders who surround themselves with people smarter than they are. Be suspicious of politicians hiring only loyalists.Most importantly: Being right matters less than getting...
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    28 mins
  • The Deadly Price of Loyalty

    The Deadly Price of Loyalty
    Aug 9 2025
    What happens when loyalty becomes more important than truth? When agreeing with the boss matters more than being right? In this episode, we dive deep into one of the most dangerous forces in leadership and decision-making: the crushing pressure for conformity that silences dissent and leads to catastrophic decisions.While the FBI now uses polygraph tests to root out employees who might dare to criticize leadership (yes, really), we explore how this same toxic loyalty nearly triggered nuclear war 60 years ago—and what one president learned that might have saved civilization itself.The Bay of Pigs: When Smart People Make the Worst Possible DecisionsPicture this: April 17th, 1961. 1,400 Cuban exiles stormed the beaches at the Bay of Pigs in what became one of the most spectacular foreign policy disasters in American history. But here's the kicker—President Kennedy didn't really want to do it. His advisors had serious doubts. So why did it happen anyway?The answer reveals a terrifying truth about human psychology: when everyone appears to agree, catastrophe follows. Kennedy's advisors each thought everyone else supported the invasion, so they kept their mouths shut. The result? A "consensus" that was completely fake, leading to a decision that strengthened Castro, humiliated America, and cost us $53 million in ransom money (in 1961 dollars, no less).Enter Irving Janis and the Birth of "Groupthink"Ten years later, Yale psychologist Irving Janis gave this phenomenon a name that's now part of everyday conversation: groupthink. His research revealed how groups of intelligent people consistently arrive at the worst possible answers—not just bad decisions, but spectacularly catastrophic ones.From Pearl Harbor to Vietnam to the Spanish Inquisition (yes, we go there), the pattern is always the same: loyalty to the group becomes the highest form of morality, dissent gets crushed, and disasters follow like clockwork.Kennedy's Radical Solution: Making Leadership HarderAfter the Bay of Pigs humiliation, Kennedy did something revolutionary. Instead of demanding more loyalty, he systematically dismantled the very consensus-seeking that had led him astray. His changes weren't small tweaks—they were a complete reimagining of presidential decision-making:* Actively invited dissenting opinions (radical concept, right?)* Institutionalized the role of devil's advocate for major decisions* Removed himself from meetings so advisors could speak freely* Split large groups into smaller ones to avoid conformity pressure* Expanded his circle of advisors beyond the usual suspectsKennedy was deliberately making his job harder, creating conflict and disagreement because he understood that comfortable consensus was the enemy of good decisions.The Ultimate Test: 18 Months LaterThese changes weren't just academic exercises. Eighteen months after the Bay of Pigs, the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Kennedy's new approach to decision-making—his willingness to hear dissent, challenge assumptions, and resist the pressure for fake unity—might have been the only thing that saved us all from becoming radioactive slag.Why This Matters TodayToday's FBI is using polygraphs to identify employees who might say something negative about leadership. Cabinet meetings have devolved into tribute-paying sessions that would make authoritarian regimes blush. The symptoms are all there: the illusion of unanimity, pressure on dissenters to conform, and "mind guards" protecting leadership from uncomfortable truths.We've seen this movie before. We know how it ends.The Hard Truth About LeadershipReal leadership isn't about surrounding yourself with people who agree with you—it's about having the integrity and values to withstand disagreement. As our co-host Joe puts it, you need a "hard shell" to handle the poking and prodding of dissent. Without that core strength, you become "all soft underbelly"—weak, reactive, and ultimately dangerous.When your identity depends on being right all the time, when criticism feels like a personal attack, when loyalty matters more than truth—that's when disasters happen. Every. Single. Time.Coming Up Next EpisodeIn two weeks, we'll explore how Kennedy's reformed decision-making process was put to the ultimate test during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Spoiler alert: we're all still here to talk about it.Key Timestamps:* 0:00 Welcome & The FBI's Loyalty Tests* 8:00 Bay of Pigs: The Disaster That Changed Everything* 19:00 Irving Janis and the Science of Groupthink* 34:00 Kennedy's Revolutionary Response* 50:00 Why Integrity Beats Confidence Every Time* 58:00 The Lessons We're Ignoring TodayJoin the Conversation: Where do you see groupthink in your world? Have you taken steps to avoid it? How do we counter groupthink in the social media era? Let us know your thoughts—we might discuss them next time.Remember: When everyone agrees with you, that's when you should be most worried...
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    1 hr and 1 min
  • The AI That's Watching You: How Palantir Is Building America's Surveillance State

    The AI That's Watching You: How Palantir Is Building America's Surveillance State
    Jul 20 2025

    The AI Surveillance State Is Here

    (Carole Cadwalladr's Substack is here: https://broligarchy.substack.com/)

    Bottom Line: Peter Thiel's company Palantir is building a massive government surveillance system using your tax dollars—and it's already operational.

    The Numbers

    $billions in in active government contracts

    $257 million ICE contract to track people using "hundreds of data categories" from FBI, CIA, DEA, ATF, IRS

    What They're Building

    Collection: Everything you do creates data—your car, doorbell, Alexa, purchases, DNA tests, facial recognition, social media

    Analysis: AI combines all this data to predict and flag "suspicious" behavior

    Enforcement: Real-time tracking, social credit scoring, automated policing decisions

    The China Preview

    A journalist tested China's system: arrived undercover, removed disguise, found in 7 minutes. Their AI now flags people for using WhatsApp, growing beards, or having the "wrong" emotions.

    It's Already Here

    Eric Loomis got 6 years in prison for resisting arrest based on AI recommendation (normally a fine)

    Citizens having social media searched at borders

    71% of deportees are actually legal residents

    DOGE + Palantir = Total surveillance capability

    The Real Problem

    Even legal behavior looks suspicious out of context. My mom buying Hitler biography books triggered Amazon's algorithm to suggest Nazi materials. Now imagine AI analyzing everything you've ever done.

    What's Next

    This isn't dystopian fiction—it's happening now, openly, in public contracts. Once fully operational, there's no going back.

    The only power we have is to stop this before it's complete.

    Full deep-dive: [Link to main article]

    Key Action: Contact your representatives about Palantir contracts. Support investigative journalists. Don't let them normalize total surveillance.

    The clock is ticking.



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    49 mins
  • From Clay Tablets to AI: How We've Been Getting Fooled for 100,000 Years

    From Clay Tablets to AI: How We've Been Getting Fooled for 100,000 Years
    Jul 5 2025

    Hey there!

    Just wrapped up our latest episode with Joe and it's got me looking at my phone differently.

    We dove deep into something that's been bugging me for months – how did we go from being reasonably good at spotting BS to... well, whatever this is?

    Turns out, we've been falling for fake news since literally the beginning of written language. I'm talking about a 1523 pamphlet showing a creature that was supposedly part donkey, part woman, part devil, part bird, floating in the Tiber River.

    Martin Luther created this "Pope Ass" to prove how monstrous the Catholic Church was. Spoiler alert: there was no monster. But people believed it because it was printed and printing was new, so it must be true, right?

    In a twist that could come out of the modern Republican playbook, fifty years later, Catholics flipped the same fake monster story to attack Luther. Same lie, different target. Sound familiar?

    The Pattern That Should Terrify Us

    Every major leap in communication technology follows the same pattern. First comes the tech breakthrough – printing press, radio, internet, social media. Then comes a period where people can't tell what's real because they're not used to the new medium yet. Then we get really good at weaponizing that confusion.

    The upheaval brings good things; the printing press gave us the Renaissance.

    But it also brought the 30 Years' War, which killed 4-8 million people. Radio brought us incredible cultural connection and the War of the Worlds panic when people thought Martians were actually invading.

    Of course, those previous conflicts took decades to unfold. The Pope Ass story took 50 years to get weaponized the second time around. Now?

    We're running these same manipulation loops in hours.

    And 4-8 million deaths over 30 years is bad, it’s nothing compared to what we could unleash today.

    When Physics Meets Facebook

    "Physics is physics,” you can say what you want, but reality doesn't care about your narrative. You may say there’s no gravity, but there is.

    However, when the narrative is spun and twisted, we start taking actions based on the narrative.

    We talked about the No Kings protest we attended (incredible energy, by the way – 5 million people versus Trump's squeaky tank parade with maybe 50,000). The contrast was striking: one side dancing and celebrating diversity, the other... well, let's just say the tank crew looked like they'd rather be anywhere else.

    But there’s the narrative of the LA protests, which were limited ins scope, but blew out of proportion when the government and media reframed the context. It might have been a couple of blocks, but it becomes the overarching narrative leading to the militarization of LA…

    The Question That Matters

    Can we evolve fast enough this time? Previous information revolutions eventually led to new institutions and standards – scientific peer review, journalism ethics, and broadcast regulations. But we've never faced technology that could literally end civilization while we're still figuring out how to manage it.

    The good news? It's absolutely controllable. Humans built these systems; humans can regulate them. The question is whether we'll choose to do it before the next 30-Year War happens in 30 minutes instead of 30 years.

    Also, good news: when you actually put diverse people in a room together (like at that protest), you realize we're all pretty much the same. It's hard to hate people in perpetuity when you see they want the same things you do.

    What power dynamics are you noticing in your information diet? Hit reply—I'd love to hear what you're seeing.

    Talk soon, Jeff

    P.S. Joe's parting wisdom from this episode: "Love each other. Just stop it with the nonsense and start loving each other." Sometimes the simplest advice hits hardest.



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    52 mins
  • Building the Dictator's Dream Surveillance System

    Building the Dictator's Dream Surveillance System
    Jun 20 2025

    I apologize in advance for disturbing your sleep.

    Honestly, I want to bring some levity to the situation, but holy cow that was hard last week (when we recorded) and that was BEFORE we started talking about war with Iran.

    But this isn’t a news podcast. We’re interested in the plodding forces of power, and last week, while we were all watching troops march into California and debating the latest political theater, something much more significant was happening in the shadows.

    Or not the shadows, out in the open. But like any good con artist, Trump plays the sleight of hand like a pro.

    And you have to wonder what is such a big deal that sending troops to attack your citizens (maybe a slight exaggeration, but that’s how it felt) is the distraction.

    The real story is that the current regime has dedicated nearly $1 billion to a company called Palantir, a data analysis firm founded by Peter Thiel that specializes in "finding hidden things.”

    What hidden things?

    Well, that’s the question.

    The "hidden things" they're looking for aren't terrorist plots or foreign threats. We don’t know what hidden things they are looking for; we only know where they are looking.

    They're looking at you—your government records (all of them), bank records, medical history, driving patterns, social media likes, sexual encounters, Pokémon history, and even what your smart refrigerator knows about your grocery habits. They're combined into one massive surveillance apparatus that would make the dictators of yore drool with envy.

    In this week's episode of Masters of Influence, Joe and I explore how we’re careening toward creating the most powerful surveillance state in human history.

    We start with a story from 1976 Communist Romania, where even the most paranoid dictator could only manage to put one agent watching one person at a time.

    Today? Your phone has 1,000 times more processing power than the supercomputers of that era, and every device in your house watches you 24/7.

    The scary part isn't just that this technology exists—it's that we're handing it over to people who have already shown us exactly how petty and vindictive they can be.

    What’s also scary is the rise of AI in making key decisions. We talk about a case in Wisconsin where Mr. Loomis received an outrageous sentence for a minor crime, thanks to an AI.

    And nobody knows why.

    Can preemptive policing be far behind?

    And this is in a world where a reporter gets fired from ABC for calling Trump "a world-class hater" (honestly, I suspect some people thought he meant it as a compliment), what do you think happens to the rest of us when they have access to every aspect of our digital lives?

    What if everything you ever said was fed into an AI, that those in power could query to determine whether you are a supporter or… well, not?

    Enter Palantir's "Foundry" system, which is being deployed across federal agencies right now, today—Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Social Security, and the IRS—creating a master database that combines government records with everything they can buy from private companies.

    Your Amazon purchases, Alexa recordings, car's GPS data, browsing history, all of it.

    This isn't conspiracy theory territory. This is happening in broad daylight, with public contracts and open conversations. Even Palantir employees are quitting in protest, warning that combining all this data "significantly increases the risk of misuse."

    But here’s the thing: it isn’t a done deal, and we’re not helpless. Understanding how power works is the first step to challenging it. And increasingly, I see people waking up, asking questions, and taking action.

    Democracy is work, and maybe we’ve coasted comfortably for a while, but it’s time to take action, and good people are starting to do so.

    Listen to this week's episode. Share it with someone who needs to hear it. And then let's figure out what we're going to do about it.

    Because, if we don't act now, we'll wake up in a world where dissent isn't just discouraged—it's impossible.

    Talk soon, Jeff

    P.S. - We also touch on some breaking news from this week, including the assassination of Democratic legislators in Minnesota by someone impersonating a police officer, and a fascinating development in the bond markets that suggests the world may no longer see America as the "safe haven" it once was. Heavy stuff, but essential to understand.



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    1 hr
  • Let Them Eat Cake: Outright Cruelty Masquerades As Savings

    Let Them Eat Cake: Outright Cruelty Masquerades As Savings
    Jun 13 2025

    This week, we dive deep into the dangerous world of false economies - policies that appear to save money but actually cost us more in the long run.

    If you’re wondering what I mean, think of every Republican savings program.

    From healthcare cuts that increase emergency room visits to bond auctions that signal America's declining credibility, we explore how short-sighted thinking creates long-term disasters.

    Yes, I know, it has been 6 days since we recorded this, and the world has devolved into violence in LA, attacks on Iran, and yes, I too am tempted to climb into a hole and hide.

    Or at least move to Canada.

    On to the podcast:

    We start with some opening chaos:

    * Biden clone robot conspiracy theories (because apparently dying and being replaced by a malfunctioning debate robot that can’t debate well makes perfect sense, but what about Alex Trebek?)

    * Trump vs. Musk feud reaches kindergarten levels with AI videos and tears

    * House representatives gleefully claim that they aren’t doing their jobs.

    Then out some warning signs

    * Treasury Bond Auction Disaster: The May 21st "tepid" auction, where investors showed up under duress to what should have been the hottest ticket in finance

    * Joni Ernst Channels Marie Antoinette: "We're all gonna die sometime" becomes the new "let them eat cake" as Iowa Senator tells constituents to get jobs, take vitamins, and pray instead of expecting healthcare

    And then we move into Jeff Explains Some Stuff -

    This is where we dig into False Economies and why thinking you're saving money when you're actually creating bigger problems down the road:

    * Healthcare: Cutting Medicaid forces people to emergency rooms, costing exponentially more than preventive care

    * Bond Markets: Making America look incompetent raises borrowing costs for everyone

    * Tariffs: Small businesses crushed while big corporations pass costs to consumers

    * School Vouchers: Destroying public education while making private schools more expensive for families

    The Cruelty Factor: These aren't just bad policies - they're designed for cruelty. There's no economic or financial benefit to these cuts, just pure cruelty under a paper-thin veneer of fiscal responsibility.

    Good News Corner:

    (Look we’re trying here)

    * Carol from Missouri was released from detention (though questions remain about why her Trump-supporting town got special treatment)

    * Kansas City bartender's kindness saves a life, inspiring others to share their stories

    * Australian boy meets his English bone marrow donor 10 years after life-saving transplant

    * Medical advances continue thanks to research investments (when we don't cut them)

    Bottom Line: False economies are really about control and cruelty. When you hear "we need to cut costs," ask yourself: Are we actually saving money, or just shifting costs to those who can least afford them? Real economics isn't about punishment - it's about creating systems that work for everyone.

    Next Week: Information as a means of control - how information systems have evolved and where they might be heading. (Spoiler: it's pretty terrifying)

    Timestamps:

    * 0:00 Introduction and Biden robot theories

    * 4:00 Trump-Musk kindergarten feud

    * 10:00 Treasury bond auction warning signs

    * 14:00 Joni Ernst's Marie Antoinette moment

    * 20:00 Jeff Explains: False Economies

    * 36:00 Good news stories

    * 43:00 Next week preview



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    44 mins
  • The Inflection Point: Cowardice as a Trading Strategy

    The Inflection Point: Cowardice as a Trading Strategy
    Jun 6 2025

    This week felt like an inflection point in American politics, with significant changes happening across multiple fronts. From Musk's departure to court rulings pushing back against overreach, we explore the shifting dynamics of power and policy.

    Headlines This Week:

    * Musk exits government after 130 days (Jeff predicted 6 weeks, Joe predicted 200+ days)

    * Senate blocks the "Bamboozle Bill" over concerns about cutting Medicaid and renewable energy funding

    * International Trade Court unanimously rules against Trump's emergency tariff powers

    * Head of ICE "retires" amid pressure over deportation quotas

    * The rise of "Taco Trades" - please stop talking about this.

    Key Topics Discussed:

    The Musk Factor: Why his departure signals a broader pattern of Trump backing down when faced with real resistance, and how the Wisconsin loss may have been the final straw.

    Taco Trades Explained: The taco mockery might lead to a worldwide meltdown. Go buy carnitas instead.

    Scientific Brain Drain: America's historic advantage in attracting global talent is evaporating as we turn away international students and defund research. Countries like Australia and Canada are aggressively recruiting the scientists we're rejecting.

    Jeff Explains Some Stuff - Supply and Demand: Trump says we need more plumbers. Do we? Or is this goign to lead to a Soviet style meltdown. Here’s why and how to know.

    Good News Corner:

    • Unanimous court rulings showing institutions still function

    • A Staten Island deli owner rewarding kids for good grades

    • A cabin owner who leaves doors unlocked for lost hikers

    • Carol in Missouri - a Trump-supporting town rallying behind their beloved immigrant waitress

    Bottom Line: Real human connections trump political rhetoric. When people know immigrants personally, they see past the fear-mongering to recognize the economic and cultural contributions that have always made America strong.

    Timestamps:

    • 0:00 Welcome and week overview

    • 1:00 Musk's departure from government

    • 4:00 Senate blocks the Bamboozle Bill

    • 6:00 International Trade Court ruling

    • 11:00 ICE quotas and enforcement challenges

    • 17:00 Taco trades and the origin of tacos

    • 23:00 US losing scientific preeminence

    • 30:00 Jeff Explains: Supply and Demand

    • 40:00 Good news stories

    • 47:00 Wrap-up

    Join us as we navigate the chaos with facts, hope, and the occasional taco recipe.



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    47 mins
  • Why They Want You Stupid: Optional Integrity and The Real Attack on Education

    Why They Want You Stupid: Optional Integrity and The Real Attack on Education
    May 30 2025

    Join us in pondering the fluidity of opinions on little things like why the same terrible people who donate to a Clinton foundation have undue influence, while it’s okay for Trump to take 8x that amount. Is it better that politicians receive payments directly rather than to their campaign funds?

    One thing is clear: understanding the rules you work by is optional these days, at least if you follow the president’s model. Apparently, his favorite phrase these days is “I don’t know,” which feels about right and is probably a safer bet than going out on a limb and getting the definition of concepts like Habeas Corpus exactly wrong.

    So maybe the solution is to avoid educating people. That way, they won’t know how to spell, and when you rip them off with a watch that misspells your name, you won’t actually have to exchange it.

    We venture into education, scientific research, the value of spending billions to map genomes, and ask the most critical question of the time:

    What the f&*k?

    Join us.

    0:00 Welcome

    00:43 What Trump really thinks about Qatar

    03:01 Political Donations and Corruption

    10:32 The watch with presidential integrity

    13:18 Hey, have you bought your ICE uniform yet?

    23:01 Hassan Piker's heinous crime

    26:10 Political manipulation and economic policies

    27:40 Why the debt is reverse taxation

    33:56 Think Critically? That’s for suckers.

    37:22 Why education sucks

    39:57 Religion doesn’t

    46:47 And the truth about scientific research.

    51:21 An Arabic caution

    53:28 Strategies to combat cult-like thinking



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    1 hr and 7 mins