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Masters of Influence

Masters of Influence

By: Jeff Loehr
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 Most of the economic/political/social conversation focuses on personalities: do I like them, where do they come from, are they "left" or "right." Instead of name-calling and pigeonholing, we want to understand why some strategies work and others don't. How do some people consolidate power while others are left out in the cold? And what does that mean for us? If you are interested in the world's power plays and how they work - join us.

mastersofinfluence.substack.comJeffrey Loehr Political Science Politics & Government Social Sciences
Episodes
  • How Dissent Saved The World in 13 Days

    How Dissent Saved The World in 13 Days
    Aug 16 2025
    October 14th, 1962. A U-2 spy plane snaps photos that change everything: Soviet missiles in Cuba, capable of reaching most of the United States within five minutes.For the next 13 days, every decision could end human civilization or save it.Here's what should terrify you: if Kennedy had used the same decision-making process that led to the Bay of Pigs disaster, you wouldn't be reading this. We'd all be radioactive dust.Instead, he did something today's leaders would consider weakness: he deliberately made himself vulnerable to disagreement.When Your General Calls You Neville ChamberlainPicture this: Air Force Chief of Staff Curtis LeMay pounds the table, demands immediate airstrikes on Cuba, then looks Kennedy in the eye and compares him to Neville Chamberlain—the appeaser whose weakness led to World War II.In most administrations, calling the President a coward is career suicide.Kennedy didn't fire LeMay. He didn't shut down the discussion. He thanked him for the assessment.Because after Bay of Pigs, Kennedy had learned something that saved the world: when everyone agrees with you, that's when you should be most terrified.The Process That Prevented ArmageddonKennedy's Cuban Missile Crisis approach was revolutionary:He assigned advisors to argue different positions—whether they believed them or not. Their job was finding flaws, not agreement.He left the room during crucial discussions. The moment Kennedy stepped out, advisors who'd been reluctant to express doubts became brutally honest about military action's risks.He encouraged his own brother to change his mind. Attorney General Robert Kennedy initially said "I think we should take Cuba back." After days of deliberation: "Any action we take against Cuba will lead to nuclear war."If they'd gone with their first instinct—attack—we'd likely have had nuclear war.The Solution Nobody Saw ComingThrough brutal intellectual combat, they found a third option: naval "quarantine" plus diplomatic pressure. Not the military's preferred invasion. Not the doves' "do nothing." Something entirely new that emerged only through systematic disagreement.Behind the scenes, Robert Kennedy conducted secret negotiations. The final deal: Soviets remove missiles in exchange for a public US pledge not to invade Cuba and secret removal of American missiles from Turkey.October 28th: Khrushchev announced withdrawal. Nuclear war avoided.This wasn't luck—it was process.The "Soft Underbelly" StrategyKennedy understood something today's leaders don't: strong leadership requires making yourself vulnerable to disagreement.You need a "hard shell" of core values to handle having a "soft underbelly" that advisors can poke and prod. Kennedy could withstand being called Neville Chamberlain because he knew who he was and what he stood for.Today's leaders have it backwards. Hard shells against disagreement, soft underbellies on values. They can't tolerate challenge because they're not sure what they believe.The Contrast with TodayFast-forward to 2025: The FBI uses polygraph tests to identify employees who said something negative about leadership. Not spies. Dissenters.Forty percent of FBI field offices have lost top agents—purged for conducting legitimate investigations political leadership didn't like.Cabinet meetings are North Korean-style tribute sessions. Press corps filled with loyalists asking softball questions.This is the exact Bay of Pigs dynamic, but on purpose. We know better. We have Kennedy's example. We understand the consequences. And we're choosing groupthink anyway.When Reality Becomes OptionalWe're implementing tariff policies that contradict economic research. Removing vaccine preservatives based on perception, not science. Investigating "weather manipulation" everyone knows doesn't exist.When a reporter questioned the press secretary's economics understanding, she responded: "How dare you question my understanding?"But questioning is literally the job. If you can't handle scrutiny, you don't belong in leadership.The Architecture of DisasterKennedy learned hard lessons in Cuba's swamps, paid with 1,400 lives, then used that knowledge to prevent nuclear war.We're learning nothing.We're systematically recreating disaster conditions:Purging competent advisors who might disagreeElevating loyalty over truthTreating dissent as betrayalCreating echo chambers where bad ideas go unchallengedKennedy's job wasn't being liked—it was making good decisions. Good decisions require honest advisors willing to tell uncomfortable truths.What You Can DoIn meetings: Ask "What could go wrong?" when everyone's nodding. Be the devil's advocate.As a manager: Create processes encouraging disagreement. Assign people to argue against your preferred option. Leave the room so people can speak freely.As a citizen: Demand leaders who surround themselves with people smarter than they are. Be suspicious of politicians hiring only loyalists.Most importantly: Being right matters less than getting...
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    28 mins
  • The Deadly Price of Loyalty

    The Deadly Price of Loyalty
    Aug 9 2025
    What happens when loyalty becomes more important than truth? When agreeing with the boss matters more than being right? In this episode, we dive deep into one of the most dangerous forces in leadership and decision-making: the crushing pressure for conformity that silences dissent and leads to catastrophic decisions.While the FBI now uses polygraph tests to root out employees who might dare to criticize leadership (yes, really), we explore how this same toxic loyalty nearly triggered nuclear war 60 years ago—and what one president learned that might have saved civilization itself.The Bay of Pigs: When Smart People Make the Worst Possible DecisionsPicture this: April 17th, 1961. 1,400 Cuban exiles stormed the beaches at the Bay of Pigs in what became one of the most spectacular foreign policy disasters in American history. But here's the kicker—President Kennedy didn't really want to do it. His advisors had serious doubts. So why did it happen anyway?The answer reveals a terrifying truth about human psychology: when everyone appears to agree, catastrophe follows. Kennedy's advisors each thought everyone else supported the invasion, so they kept their mouths shut. The result? A "consensus" that was completely fake, leading to a decision that strengthened Castro, humiliated America, and cost us $53 million in ransom money (in 1961 dollars, no less).Enter Irving Janis and the Birth of "Groupthink"Ten years later, Yale psychologist Irving Janis gave this phenomenon a name that's now part of everyday conversation: groupthink. His research revealed how groups of intelligent people consistently arrive at the worst possible answers—not just bad decisions, but spectacularly catastrophic ones.From Pearl Harbor to Vietnam to the Spanish Inquisition (yes, we go there), the pattern is always the same: loyalty to the group becomes the highest form of morality, dissent gets crushed, and disasters follow like clockwork.Kennedy's Radical Solution: Making Leadership HarderAfter the Bay of Pigs humiliation, Kennedy did something revolutionary. Instead of demanding more loyalty, he systematically dismantled the very consensus-seeking that had led him astray. His changes weren't small tweaks—they were a complete reimagining of presidential decision-making:* Actively invited dissenting opinions (radical concept, right?)* Institutionalized the role of devil's advocate for major decisions* Removed himself from meetings so advisors could speak freely* Split large groups into smaller ones to avoid conformity pressure* Expanded his circle of advisors beyond the usual suspectsKennedy was deliberately making his job harder, creating conflict and disagreement because he understood that comfortable consensus was the enemy of good decisions.The Ultimate Test: 18 Months LaterThese changes weren't just academic exercises. Eighteen months after the Bay of Pigs, the world teetered on the brink of nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Kennedy's new approach to decision-making—his willingness to hear dissent, challenge assumptions, and resist the pressure for fake unity—might have been the only thing that saved us all from becoming radioactive slag.Why This Matters TodayToday's FBI is using polygraphs to identify employees who might say something negative about leadership. Cabinet meetings have devolved into tribute-paying sessions that would make authoritarian regimes blush. The symptoms are all there: the illusion of unanimity, pressure on dissenters to conform, and "mind guards" protecting leadership from uncomfortable truths.We've seen this movie before. We know how it ends.The Hard Truth About LeadershipReal leadership isn't about surrounding yourself with people who agree with you—it's about having the integrity and values to withstand disagreement. As our co-host Joe puts it, you need a "hard shell" to handle the poking and prodding of dissent. Without that core strength, you become "all soft underbelly"—weak, reactive, and ultimately dangerous.When your identity depends on being right all the time, when criticism feels like a personal attack, when loyalty matters more than truth—that's when disasters happen. Every. Single. Time.Coming Up Next EpisodeIn two weeks, we'll explore how Kennedy's reformed decision-making process was put to the ultimate test during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Spoiler alert: we're all still here to talk about it.Key Timestamps:* 0:00 Welcome & The FBI's Loyalty Tests* 8:00 Bay of Pigs: The Disaster That Changed Everything* 19:00 Irving Janis and the Science of Groupthink* 34:00 Kennedy's Revolutionary Response* 50:00 Why Integrity Beats Confidence Every Time* 58:00 The Lessons We're Ignoring TodayJoin the Conversation: Where do you see groupthink in your world? Have you taken steps to avoid it? How do we counter groupthink in the social media era? Let us know your thoughts—we might discuss them next time.Remember: When everyone agrees with you, that's when you should be most worried...
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    1 hr and 1 min
  • The AI That's Watching You: How Palantir Is Building America's Surveillance State

    The AI That's Watching You: How Palantir Is Building America's Surveillance State
    Jul 20 2025

    The AI Surveillance State Is Here

    (Carole Cadwalladr's Substack is here: https://broligarchy.substack.com/)

    Bottom Line: Peter Thiel's company Palantir is building a massive government surveillance system using your tax dollars—and it's already operational.

    The Numbers

    $billions in in active government contracts

    $257 million ICE contract to track people using "hundreds of data categories" from FBI, CIA, DEA, ATF, IRS

    What They're Building

    Collection: Everything you do creates data—your car, doorbell, Alexa, purchases, DNA tests, facial recognition, social media

    Analysis: AI combines all this data to predict and flag "suspicious" behavior

    Enforcement: Real-time tracking, social credit scoring, automated policing decisions

    The China Preview

    A journalist tested China's system: arrived undercover, removed disguise, found in 7 minutes. Their AI now flags people for using WhatsApp, growing beards, or having the "wrong" emotions.

    It's Already Here

    Eric Loomis got 6 years in prison for resisting arrest based on AI recommendation (normally a fine)

    Citizens having social media searched at borders

    71% of deportees are actually legal residents

    DOGE + Palantir = Total surveillance capability

    The Real Problem

    Even legal behavior looks suspicious out of context. My mom buying Hitler biography books triggered Amazon's algorithm to suggest Nazi materials. Now imagine AI analyzing everything you've ever done.

    What's Next

    This isn't dystopian fiction—it's happening now, openly, in public contracts. Once fully operational, there's no going back.

    The only power we have is to stop this before it's complete.

    Full deep-dive: [Link to main article]

    Key Action: Contact your representatives about Palantir contracts. Support investigative journalists. Don't let them normalize total surveillance.

    The clock is ticking.



    Get full access to Masters of Influence at mastersofinfluence.substack.com/subscribe
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    49 mins
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