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REDOM LIVE: The Reset - Sydney 22-23 Oct and Melbourne 29-30 Oct 2026. 3 hours, 50 seats, $49 a ticket. Get yours here: https://redomlive.au

2026 has been the year property investing reset. Interest rates have gone up 4 times this year, the government has changed the incentives, and an investment boom is reshaping the Australian economy. The playbook that worked between 2020 and 2025 is over.

In this episode, Curtis and I go city by city through what the big banks and economists are forecasting for house prices over the next 12 months. I also lay out the big shifts I think will drive property for the rest of this decade, and why picking markets off a data website no longer cuts it.

What you'll learn:
- What the big banks are forecasting for Sydney house prices over the next 12 months, with forecasts read out on the show ranging from about 10% to 16% lower
- How Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide compare, and why Melbourne may be the first market to turn
- Why my base case is that capital growth from 2026 to 2030 runs at around half the pace of 2020 to 2025
- Why unemployment and the sector you work in matter more to the next cycle than another rate move
- Which parts of the economy look green (tourism, construction, energy, mining, medical) and which look red (consulting, professional and financial services)
- Why chasing days on market and stock levels alone is too simplistic now
- Why, despite all of this, I'm still optimistic about Australia's long-term future

If this helped you see the market differently, subscribe to Australian Property Talk for a new episode every week.

#AustralianPropertyTalk #PropertyInvesting #AustralianProperty #HousingMarket #InterestRates

Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:41 2026: the year property investing reset
03:02 Prediction 1: capital growth halves to 2030
05:04 Sydney: what the banks are forecasting
10:07 Prediction 2: unemployment
10:57 Prediction 3: the green and red sectors
14:24 Prediction 4: technology reshapes the economy
17:08 Why data-website investing no longer works
17:54 Why I'm still optimistic about Australia
20:35 Melbourne forecasts
21:53 Brisbane, mining and the AI boom
25:08 Perth and Adelaide
26:16 Recap: where Curtis and I agree
27:56 REDOM LIVE events
29:46 Final thoughts

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

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Join me at REDOM LIVE for a 3-hour live workshop in Sydney (22–23 Oct 2026) and Melbourne (29–30 Oct 2026).

🎟️ Grab your seat: https://redomlive.au/

Is Australia heading into a major housing market crash or is the country entering a once-in-a-generation economic reset?

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the future of the Australian economy and property market, exploring how rising interest rates, artificial intelligence, changing industries and shifting employment trends could reshape where Australians live, work and invest over the next decade.

The discussion introduces the ideas behind The Money Map and explores why the next 10 years may look dramatically different from the last 10. Rather than relying entirely on historical property data and traditional investment rules, the conversation focuses on understanding where money is flowing, which industries are likely to thrive, and which locations could benefit from Australia's structural economic changes.

In this episode, we explore:
📌 Why Australia's property market may be undergoing a major reset
📌 How interest rates could reshape businesses, jobs, and investment
📌 The potential impact of AI and automation on employment
📌 Which industries could drive Australia's future economic growth
📌 Why some Australian suburbs and regional cities may outperform others
📌 How employment trends influence housing demand and property prices
📌 The potential winners and losers of Australia's economic transformation
📌 Why investors need to think beyond historical data when making property decisions
📌 How to identify future opportunities across Australia's property market
📌 The ideas behind The Money Map and positioning your finances for the next decade

Australia's future may hold enormous opportunities, but the benefits won't necessarily be shared equally across industries, communities or property markets. Understanding where economic growth is heading could be crucial for investors looking to make more informed long-term decisions.

The big question: Are you positioning yourself for the Australia of the future, or investing based on the rules of the past?

Chapters
00:00–01:02 Australia's Property Market Reset
01:02–02:05 Introducing The Money Map
02:05–03:10 Where the Money and Jobs Are Going
03:10–04:54 Interest Rates and the Economic Reset
04:54–06:17 Rich Australia, Poor Australians
06:17–07:20 Australia's Future Economic Growth
07:20–08:40 Jobs, Industries and Property Investment
08:40–10:00 Unemployment and the Flow of Money
10:00–11:20 Why Old Property Investment Rules Are Changing
11:20–14:44 The Next 10 Years and Australia's Top Property Opportunities

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

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👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

Banks have quietly changed how they assess property investors over the past 9 months or so, and most people haven't noticed. With credit demand down, some lenders are now counting far more of your rental income and accepting higher yields, which means the same portfolio can support more borrowing than it could a couple of years ago.

I sat down with Curtis, the best broker I know, and grilled him on what has actually changed and how advanced investors are structuring their lending to keep buying once they hit the wall with a single household.

In this episode I walk through a simple way to picture how banks assess you, using positive and negative "gaps" for each property and for your household. Curtis explains why stacking every property against your personal income eventually stops working, and how splitting your portfolio across different entities and different lenders turns 1 big problem into several smaller ones you can actually solve. We also break down a real client scenario where moving the owner occupier debt and the equity release into separate entities freed up around $3 million in additional borrowing power.

What you'll learn:
📌 Why some banks, including Westpac and St.George, will now use up to 95% of rental income, compared with the 70% to 80% that used to be standard
📌 How lenders like NAB are now accepting yields up to 7% instead of capping them at 6%
📌 The "gap" framework: how a bank decides whether your household surplus can cover each property's shortfall
📌 Why holding properties in companies, trusts and SPVs can give you back your borrowing capacity
📌 How using different lenders matters, because not every bank treats your income and debts the same way
📌 How an equity release loan held in a separate entity can let you access equity without dragging down future applications
📌 Who this kind of structuring suits, typically self-employed investors on $500,000+ income with $3 million+ in debt

If you want more conversations like this on lending, strategy and the Australian property market, subscribe to Australian Property Talk.

#AustralianPropertyTalk #PropertyInvesting #BorrowingPower #PropertyFinance #AustralianProperty

Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:21 Banks now taking up to 95% of rental income
02:56 The gap framework: how banks see each property
04:40 Higher yield caps: 7% instead of 6%
05:49 Can you afford the gap? Your household surplus
07:15 Hitting the wall with 14 properties
09:03 Splitting negative gaps across entities
10:01 No income but asset rich? Private banking
12:19 Client case study: moving owner occupier debt into an SPV
14:21 Spreading the load across different lenders
15:15 Who this strategy suits
16:38 Using an equity release loan in a separate entity
18:22 Where lending strategy meets property strategy
20:04 Investor broking is now a game of chess
21:58 How to speak with Curtis

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail

👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

The property cycle is about to take another turn, and it's not the one most people were hoping for. Instead of prices flattening out and recovering this spring, I think we're heading into a double dip downturn, where the falls pause briefly and then start again because interest rates look set to rise once more.

That second leg changes the timeline for buyers, sellers and anyone sitting on the fence, so I wanted to break down what it means city by city and where I'm actually seeing opportunity right now.

In this episode, Curtis and I recast our property price predictions for every capital city. We unpack why prices should have started rising again on their own, why a rate rise at this point in the cycle hits sentiment harder than it would have a few months ago, and what a double dip could look like for Sydney. Then we work through Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and the ACT, and I share the types of property I'd be buying in these conditions.

What you'll learn:
📌 Why 1 or 2 more rate rises could turn a pause in prices into a double dip downturn
📌 Why Sydney falls could push close to 15% from peak if there are 2 more rate rises, and what happens if there are none
📌 Why I think strong negotiators can buy 25 to 30% below last year's prices in the $2 million plus Sydney market
📌 Why units in Sydney and Melbourne are holding up far better than houses
📌 Why Melbourne apartments and Darwin are the only markets still rising on our charts
📌 How Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and the ACT are tracking compared with Sydney and Melbourne
📌 The plays I like right now: top-end Sydney houses on big blocks, top-end and western Melbourne houses, and large older Melbourne apartments

If you found this useful, subscribe to Australian Property Talk for more breakdowns of where the Australian property market is heading.

#AustralianProperty #PropertyMarket #SydneyProperty #MelbourneProperty #PropertyInvesting

Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:26 The double dip property downturn
01:45 Why prices should have started rising again
03:24 Why a rate rise now hits sentiment harder
04:17 Our baseline: rates, inflation, energy and AI
05:02 Sydney predictions
05:38 Why now is the time to negotiate hard in Sydney
07:03 What a double dip could look like for Sydney
08:23 The risks sit on the downside
09:16 Houses vs units across the country
10:01 Melbourne predictions
10:53 Melbourne apartments and Darwin: the only risers
12:06 What I'm buying right now
13:42 Large older apartments: a recent Melbourne buy
15:37 Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and the ACT
17:11 Summary and key takeaways

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

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👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

One of Australia's biggest developers has gone into liquidation carrying $3.2 billion in private credit loans that won't be properly repaid. Every headline since has asked the same question - is this the first domino in an Australian credit crisis? I don't think it is, and this episode explains why.

Curtis arranges this funding for a living, across 20 to 30 private credit providers, so instead of speculating we walked through the actual mechanics. What private credit is, why the big banks walked away from funding developments, and how a $60 million project quietly becomes a $75 million problem with two lenders, mezzanine debt at 20% and an end value that never moved. It turned into an accidental masterclass on how development finance really works, and it ends somewhere more optimistic than the headlines do.

What you'll learn:
📍 What private credit actually is, explained simply - lending arranged outside the banking regulatory system
📍 Why CBA and NAB have effectively exited construction funding above a duplex or triplex, and who filled the gap
📍 The step by step anatomy of a development blowing up - cost inflation, a second lender, rollover fees and an end value that stayed at $100 million
📍 Why roughly $100 billion sits in private credit tied to Australian property development, and how fast that's grown
📍 The one condition that would actually make this dangerous, and why I don't think Australia meets it
📍 How diversification and dual arms let a private credit book absorb a default without breaking
📍 Why developer collapses are arguably bullish for prices - fewer completions means less supply into a housing shortage
📍 Where the real risk sits for buyers who've paid a deposit on an unfinished pre-sale

Subscribe for a data-first read on the Australian property market every week.

#AustralianProperty #PrivateCredit #PropertyDevelopment #PropertyInvesting #HousingCrisis

Chapters
00:00 Will private credit cause Australia's next crisis?
00:45 A $3.2 billion collapse and the first domino
01:33 What private credit actually is
03:26 Explaining it to a 5 year old
03:56 The questions these lenders ask - and don't
05:02 The $60 million development, step by step
06:45 Cost inflation blows the budget open
07:48 What's better than one private credit loan? Two
08:32 Rollover fees, delays and a doubled project length
09:44 The end value never moved
10:43 The developer behaviour nobody talks about
12:25 $100 billion and how fast it grew
13:35 Borrower risk and what the underwriting misses
14:58 Who's funding the funders - super funds and investors
16:25 Why I can't see this becoming an Australian crisis
18:31 Concentration risk and the 60 storey tower problem
20:11 Backing housing in the middle of a housing crisis
21:03 Diversification is how the risk gets managed
22:41 The summary - noisy and scary, but solvable
24:29 What happens to buyers who've paid a deposit

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail

👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

Australian 10 year bond yields have pushed to 5.36%, the highest in 15 years, with the 15 year sitting at 5.55%. That isn't an abstract number for bond traders. It's the price of doing nothing, and when the price of doing nothing goes up, every asset carrying risk has to work harder to justify itself. Property included.

In this episode Curtis and I unpack what's driving the surge, why it's happening in the US, Japan and the UK at the same time, and what it actually means for Australian housing. We walk through the 3 dominoes stacking up right now: an oil crisis feeding energy and food inflation, a government debt load that's getting more expensive to service by the month, and an AI data centre boom so large it may be holding interest rates up on its own. Then we get into what I'm seeing at the top end of the market, where I think there's a legitimate case to ask for 30% off what you would have paid last year.

What you'll learn:
📍 What a government bond actually is, and why the risk-free rate sets the floor under every other return in the economy
📍 Why this is a global repricing rather than an Australian inflation story
📍 The stagflation problem - slow growth alongside sticky inflation - and why it's the hardest setting to govern through
📍 Why the neutral rate may now sit closer to 4% than the 2.5% everyone assumed, and what that changes for borrowers
📍 How an AI data centre boom crowds out other activity the same way a mining boom does, and why the gains land unevenly
📍 What I'm seeing between list prices and sold prices at the top end, and how those discounts ripple down into the middle of the market
📍 Why playing defence has been our framing since the start of the year, and what's actually held up

Subscribe for a data-first read on the Australian property market every week.

#AustralianProperty #InterestRates #BondYields #Inflation #PropertyInvesting

Chapters
00:00 The risk-free rate and why it changes everything
00:43 Bond yields are on fire - what's actually happening
02:46 What a government bond is, in plain English
03:42 Why a higher risk-free rate reprices every other asset
05:08 The numbers - Aussie yields at 15 year highs
05:44 This isn't just Australia - the US, Japan and the UK
07:03 Stagflation - slow growth with high inflation
07:51 Is the neutral rate now closer to 4%?
10:04 Driver 1 - the oil crisis and imported inflation
11:36 Driver 2 - government debt and what it costs each of us
13:00 Driver 3 - the AI and data centre boom
15:08 The crowding out effect, just like a mining boom
16:40 Westpac's read on the spillover
18:30 The dominoes - 3 rate rises, then the May budget
20:03 The property lens - why people aren't transacting
20:32 A legitimate case for 30% off the top end
21:31 How that discount ripples into the middle market
22:07 Playing defence and what's actually held up
22:56 The summary - a tough time to be a property investor

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail

👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

Three rate rises and one very anti-property budget have done something to the Sydney market that no bank forecast a year ago. The question we argue about in this episode isn't whether prices are falling. It's how far they go, and whether the worst of it has already happened on the ground while the data is still 6 months behind.

In this episode Curtis and I go city by city through what ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic are actually forecasting for the next 12 months, then put our own numbers next to theirs. Curtis calls Sydney at 15.1%, which would make it the biggest fall in 40 years. I land closer to 11 or 12%, and I explain why the composition of the Sydney market makes a 15% aggregate fall very hard to produce. We then work through Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, what listings are signalling in each one, and the single event that flips the whole market.

What you'll learn:
📍 What ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic have forecast for every capital city, and exactly where we disagree with them
📍 Why Sydney is behaving like two separate markets, and why the top end is wearing most of the fall
📍 The case for Western Sydney outperforming the national market over the next 5 years
📍 Why I think the trough was yesterday rather than tomorrow, and what a lagging data series hides from buyers
📍 Brisbane listings swinging from 40% below average to 8% above in the space of 7 months, on the lowest yields in the country at 3.3%
📍 Why Adelaide is capped by rents, and why Perth may still have room left in the tank
📍 The labour market numbers the RBA isn't reading, and why I think 6 to 8 rate cuts are coming

Subscribe for a data-first read on the Australian property market every week.

#AustralianProperty #SydneyProperty #HousePrices #InterestRates #PropertyInvesting

Chapters
00:00 The bold call - Sydney's biggest fall in 40 years?
00:32 What the banks are predicting for the next 12 months
01:05 Sydney: the ANZ, NAB and CoreLogic numbers
02:24 Curtis says 15.1%. I say 11 to 12
03:20 Two Sydneys - the top end is wearing the fall
06:19 Western Sydney and the composition problem
07:50 The trough was yesterday, not tomorrow
09:32 Melbourne - the same story, smaller
12:23 Why prices shouldn't keep falling into next year
13:40 Where I'd be buying right now
15:00 Brisbane - listings flip from 40% below to 8% above
15:53 Listings across every capital
17:03 Brisbane on 3.3% yields - is the cycle over?
18:14 Adelaide - capped by rents
18:56 Perth - flat now, more in the tank
20:46 It all hinges on the first rate cut
21:19 The labour market the RBA isn't reading
23:04 Final take - sharp, shallow and nearly over
24:33 Why Western Sydney outperforms from here

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail

👉 Want to buy BEFORE the data shifts, not after? Book a FREE strategy call with Curtis here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

Lending is the quietest part of property investing, and right now it is where most people are leaving money on the table.

Banks have gone from protecting their margins to fighting for your business. Owner-occupier rates are back in the high 5s, investor rates in the low 6s, and some lenders are throwing cashbacks at borrowers who ask to leave. That window does not stay open forever. As rates fall and lending volumes recover, banks stop fighting this hard.

In this episode I sit down with Curtis to unpack the specific lending policies that have shifted in the last few weeks. We cover the refinance war that is still running, the sudden pivot happening in SMSF lending, the rules tightening around trusts and companies, and a private banking policy that most investors have never heard of. We finish on a real client case that took 16 valuations to get across the line.

What you'll learn:
📌 Why the mortgage pricing war is still running, and roughly where owner-occupier and investor rates are sitting
📌 What a discharge request actually does, and why some banks only sharpen their pricing after you lodge one
📌 The SMSF pivot since 10 August: lenders can no longer write purchases, so they are chasing refinances instead
📌 The new "easy refinance" rules in SMSF: 12 months of ownership, a clean repayment history, and no servicing test
📌 The bad news on trusts and companies: guarantor loans appearing on credit files and much stricter accountant letter wording
📌 The net asset test inside the private banking arms of the major banks, and the debt level you need before it applies
📌 A real case study: 16 valuations ordered, 1 lender with a usable desktop valuation, 2 that passed servicing

If you want the lending side of property explained without the spin, subscribe to Australian Property Talk.

#PropertyInvesting #Refinance #SMSF #AustralianProperty #MortgageBroking

Chapters
0:00 Intro
0:38 Why a slower market is creating lending opportunities
1:44 The refinance boom and the mortgage pricing war
1:57 Discharge requests and which banks fight to keep you
2:55 Where investor rates are sitting right now
4:37 Why this window closes when the market picks up
5:04 SMSF: lenders pivot from purchases to refinances
5:25 The easy refinance rules, no servicing test
6:56 What it means if your SMSF rate starts with a 7
8:56 The bad news: trust and company lending is tightening
9:20 Guarantor loans now appearing on credit files
9:44 Stricter accountant letters and no-liability declarations
11:16 Do private banks ask the same questions?
13:34 The private banking net asset lending test
14:02 What actually counts as a liquid asset
16:16 The debt threshold to access private banking policy
20:40 Case study: the investor told he was maxed out
21:45 16 valuations, 1 lender that worked
24:07 What a harder lending market really demands

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au