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👉 BUY smarter with Alaya Property's economics-driven strategy, getting in BEFORE the data shifts. Book your FREE call now: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithalaya
👉 Work with MORTGAGE BROKERS who invest themselves & know markets Australia-wide. Book your FREE strategy session here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

🔗 Grab the free budget calculator + Melbourne apartment suburb-ranking tool in the links below.
👉 Run the numbers on your Melbourne apartment - pick a suburb, enter your situation, get your estimated monthly cost and Alaya's full investment scorecard in under 2 minutes: https://rebrand.ly/melbaptcalculator
👉 See how the proposed tax changes hit your property portfolio - enter your situation and get your personalised impact estimate in under 2 minutes: https://rebrand.ly/taxreformcalc

Investor borrowing power has been smashed. It's July 2026, the first month of the new financial year, and investor lending has fallen off a cliff. Our own numbers at Flint are down around 40% year on year, and across the buyer's-agent industry sign-ups are down 50 to 70%.

The rules have changed - but if your circumstances still stack up, you can keep growing a portfolio. It just takes a smarter, more creative playbook. In this episode Kurt and I walk through exactly how.

In this discussion we break down the questions we ask investors right now: how to map your "jigsaw" of entities and find hidden capacity, why being over-borrowed in one entity and under-borrowed in another is an opportunity, the creative move of shifting debt into a trust without selling, why cash beats borrowing power on paper, the servicing-vs-deposit trap, and why interest-only terms matter as much as rates.

What you'll learn:

- Why investor lending is down about 40% and buyer's-agent sign-ups 50 to 70%
- How to map your portfolio across entities to find borrowing capacity you did not know you had
- Why being over-borrowed in one entity and under-borrowed in another is an opportunity
- The creative move: shifting loans into a trust without selling the asset, and the narrow situations it actually works for
- Why released equity and cash beat a bigger borrowing-power number on paper
- The servicing-vs-deposit seesaw, and why banks will not let you max both
- Why interest-only terms, not just rates, can quietly wreck your servicing

Subscribe for calm, data-led Australian property and finance analysis every week.

#AustralianProperty #PropertyInvesting #MortgageBroker #PropertyPortfolio #InterestRates

Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:05 Investor borrowing power has been smashed
4:04 The data: investor activity down ~40%
6:46 Why buyer's agents are dropping 50-70%
9:04 Step 1: map what you own (the jigsaw)
11:35 Over-borrowed vs under-borrowed = opportunity
12:27 The creative move: shift debt into a trust
17:22 Why these buying conditions are attractive
20:05 Cash is king: equity beats borrowing power
22:56 The seesaw: servicing vs deposit
25:04 Interest-only terms and rate modelling
28:19 What it means for you

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail

👉 BUY smarter with Alaya Property's economics-driven strategy, getting in BEFORE the data shifts. Book your FREE call now: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithalaya
👉 Work with MORTGAGE BROKERS who invest themselves & know markets Australia-wide. Book your FREE strategy session here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

🔗 Grab the free budget calculator + Melbourne apartment suburb-ranking tool in the links below.

👉 Run the numbers on your Melbourne apartment - pick a suburb, enter your situation, get your estimated monthly cost and Alaya's full investment scorecard in under 2 minutes: https://rebrand.ly/melbaptcalculator
👉 See how the proposed tax changes hit your property portfolio - enter your situation and get your personalised impact estimate in under 2 minutes: https://rebrand.ly/taxreformcalc

Residential investing has always been the easy door. Fast valuations, cheap money, release equity, buy again. But with tighter borrowing power, rate rise after rate rise and big changes hitting SMSF lending, more investor demand is being pushed towards commercial property - largely because it is one of the doors still open.

The problem is commercial does not behave like resi. And moving towards it just because it is open is a fast way to make a poor decision.

In this episode I sit down with Curtis from Flint - who has overseen more than 1 billion dollars in lending flows - to unpack how commercial property actually fits inside a property investor's portfolio, how the lending really works, and where the risks sit. We walk through the real numbers on a chunky deal, why the lease matters more than the building, and why in commercial the signed contract is the start of the process, not the end.

📌 What you'll learn:
📌 The difference between owner-occupier and passive commercial investing, and why banks treat them differently
📌 The rule-of-thumb numbers - why a 70% loan needs roughly a 7% net yield to stack up, and how lease-doc lending works
📌 Why the lease, the tenant and the strength of the business paying rent matter more than the bricks
📌 How value is forced in commercial - fix the vacancy, get a tenant on a good lease, lift the asset value
📌 A real scenario - buying a shop that has sat vacant for 6 months next to one you already own
📌 Which lenders play where, from the big banks to specialist non-banks, and when to refinance
📌 What SMSF and sub 1.5 million dollar commercial buys look like, and why you should budget a 35% deposit
📌 Why the buying process is longer - due diligence, expensive valuations, app fees and 90-day settlements

My read at the end is measured: in conditions like these, play defence. Commercial being the open door does not make it the right door. What you are really buying is the lease, and a view on where the economy is heading.

If you want clear, economics-led property strategy, subscribe and hit the bell so you never miss an episode.

#AustralianProperty #CommercialProperty #PropertyInvesting #SMSF #PropertyFinance

Chapters
00:00 Why commercial is a different game to resi
02:07 What commercial actually means - owner-occupier vs passive investor
03:32 Lending terms for passive commercial investors
05:08 The numbers on a chunky deal - deposit, yield and cash flow
06:52 The loan process and why valuations are harder
07:36 How commercial sits inside a resi portfolio
08:07 Why the lease is everything
09:41 Real scenario - buying a vacant shop next door
11:07 Forcing value through the lease
14:01 Which banks lend and where
15:30 SMSF and sub 1.5 million dollar commercial buys
19:17 The buying process, legals and costs
21:35 Redom's verdict - should you actually do this

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au

Send us Fan Mail

👉 BUY smarter with Alaya Property's economics-driven strategy, getting in BEFORE the data shifts. Book your FREE call now: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithalaya
👉 Work with MORTGAGE BROKERS who invest themselves & know markets Australia-wide. Book your FREE strategy session here: https://rebrand.ly/chatwithflintinvest

🔗 Grab the free budget calculator + Melbourne apartment suburb-ranking tool in the links below.

👉 Run the numbers on your Melbourne apartment - pick a suburb, enter your situation, get your estimated monthly cost and Alaya's full investment scorecard in under 2 minutes: https://rebrand.ly/melbaptcalculator
👉 See how the proposed tax changes hit your property portfolio - enter your situation and get your personalised impact estimate in under 2 minutes: https://rebrand.ly/taxreformcalc

The last 90 days have fundamentally changed the Australian economy.

Three rate rises from the RBA, a wave of government tax changes, and the "everything everywhere" boom of last year has flipped into the fastest housing decline we have seen - and almost all of it is self-inflicted.

So here is my call. I think this is the biggest policy mistake I have watched an Australian government make, and it forces the other side of the trade: 6 to 8 rate cuts by the end of 2027. In this episode Curtis and I put our Treasury hats on and walk through exactly why, step by step.

In this discussion we trace the chain reaction - a 20% collapse in property transactions, the housing multiplier that drags the whole economy down with it, credit growth falling off a cliff, record-low confidence, and a trillion-dollar wealth wipeout - then why all of that forces the RBA back to neutral, and what it means if you are buying.

What you'll learn:

- Why property transactions could fall 20% or more, back to 2018 levels, and why that hits far more than housing
- The housing multiplier: how roughly 20% of economic activity is property-related or adjacent
- Why credit growth may fall from about 8% to 2.9% (ANZ's forecast)
- How consumer confidence at a 53-year low freezes spending across the economy
- The wealth effect in reverse: what a trillion-dollar wealth wipeout does to cars, retail and hospitality
- Why the RBA and most economists only "tweak the edges" and miss the wild swings
- The case for 6 to 8 rate cuts by the end of 2027, starting with 4 back-to-back to get back to neutral
- Why these conditions hand buyers rare negotiating power right now
- Subscribe for calm, data-led analysis of the Australian property market and economy every week.

#AustralianProperty #InterestRates #RBA #RateCuts #PropertyMarket

Chapters
0:00 The predictions, in 60 seconds
0:44 90 days that broke the market
2:04 The call: 6 to 8 rate cuts by 2027
4:12 Reason 1: a 20% collapse in transactions
10:52 Reason 2: credit growth falls off a cliff
12:02 Reason 3: confidence at a 53-year low
13:53 Reason 4: the trillion-dollar wealth wipeout
16:03 Why the RBA keeps getting it wrong
20:00 Reason 5: back to neutral rates
23:03 Four back-to-back cuts explained
25:05 Phase two: 2027
27:39 What it means for buyers

This video is provided by Confidence Finance Pty Ltd (ACL 488313) & Flint Trademark Pty Ltd. This is general information only and not personal advice. Please seek credit advice from us directly and independent tax, legal or financial advice where appropriate.

Reach out to us at www.australianpropertytalk.com.au