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In this episode of GNSI’s “At the Boundary” podcast, Arman Mahmoudian, PhD, interviews Marvin G. Weinbaum, PhD, who is senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Drawing on his recent article, “Our Knowledge of the Taliban as Guide for US Policy” ( which was recently published in the Journal of Strategic Security), Dr. Weinbaum offers a detailed assessment of the collapse of the Afghan state and the return of the Taliban in 2021.

This episode discusses:

• Why the U.S. failed at state-building and counterinsurgency in Afghanistan
• The shift from counterterrorism to democratic nation-building
• Weinbaum’s analysis of Afghan leadership under Karzai and Ghani, and how their governance choices helped shape the state’s collapse
• Fragmentation within the Taliban leadership
• How the presence of ISIS-K pressures Taliban unity and policy
• The collapse of U.S. military support and Afghan troop morale
• Dangers of a failed Taliban state and the regional risk of civil war
• Weinbaum’s direct message to Afghans affected by the regime change

Throughout the interview, Weinbaum emphasizes that U.S. disengagement has reduced its leverage on critical issues like human rights, warning that effective diplomacy with the Taliban requires long-term engagement, not conditional demands. He also argues that continued absence risks ceding influence to regional powers already moving toward recognition.

Links from the episode:

• Register for CyberBay Here!

• GNSI Tampa Summit 5 Report (March 2025) The Russia-Ukraine War: Lessons for Future Conflicts

• The Latest Journal of Strategic Security (JSS)

• GNSI’s Axis of Resistance Research Initiative Playlist

At the Boundary from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.

A "boundary" is a place, either literal or figurative, where two forces exist in close proximity to each other. Sometimes that boundary is in a state of harmony. More often than not, that boundary has a bit of chaos baked in. The Global and National Security Institute will live on the boundary of security policy and technology and that's where this podcast will focus.

The mission of GNSI is to provide actionable solutions to 21st-century security challenges for decision-makers at the local, state, national and global levels. We hope you enjoy At the Boundary.

Look for our other publications and products on our website publications page.

Text the ATB Team! We'd love to hear from you!

In this episode of At the Boundary, Tad Schnaufer, PhD, speaks with John Pennell, PhD, a Senior Diplomacy Fellow with Narrative-Strategies, Senior Strategic Advisor with Pax Strategies LLC, Senior Practitioner with the Irregular Warfare Center, and author of Assessing Russia's Actions in Ukraine and Syria, 2014–2022: Implications for the Changing Character of War

Pennell breaks down Russia’s military and political strategies in two key theaters, Ukraine and Syria, and the implications for NATO, the United States, and global security.

Their discussion covers:

• Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics in Ukraine prior to the 2022 full-scale invasion, including “Little Green Men,” the Wagner Group, and local proxy forces
• How Russia’s disinformation campaigns, strategic plausible deniability, and cyber warfare shaped operations in Crimea and Donbas
• The 2015 Syrian intervention was a testing ground for drones, electronic warfare, and emerging military technology
• The debate over terminology used to describe the conflict: hybrid warfare vs. new generation warfare vs. full-spectrum conflict, and why these distinctions matter in military strategy and geopolitics
• Lessons for NATO, the U.S., and allies from Russian military operations between 2014–2022
• The Kremlin’s shift from destabilizing Ukraine to pursuing regime change, and the information warfare narratives used to justify it
• Implications for future conflicts and how the U.S. and partners can counter hybrid threats effectively

Links from the Episode:

• Cyber Bay Registration Link

• Read The Latest GNSI Newsletter

• 2025 Notes from Cambridge Blog

• Assessing Russia's Actions in Ukraine and Syria, 2014–2022: Implications for the Changing Character of War by Dr. John A. Pennell

At the Boundary from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.

A "boundary" is a place, either literal or figurative, where two forces exist in close proximity to each other. Sometimes that boundary is in a state of harmony. More often than not, that boundary has a bit of chaos baked in. The Global and National Security Institute will live on the boundary of security policy and technology and that's where this podcast will focus.

The mission of GNSI is to provide actionable solutions to 21st-century security challenges for decision-makers at the local, state, national and global levels. We hope you enjoy At the Boundary.

Look for our other publications and products on our website publications page.

Text the ATB Team! We'd love to hear from you!

Joining us again is Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where his research focuses on Syria, terrorism, and insurgency across the Levant. In this episode of At the Boundary, Lister breaks down both the history and the sequence of events that reshaped Syria. He details Bashar al-Assad’s sudden flight to Russia to the rise of Syria’s new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a figure who was once designated terrorist with a $10m bounty but is now engaging with diplomats from over 70 countries.

This discussion takes a look at the following:

· The “Rush to Damascus” and Assad’s unexpected downfall.

· Ahmed al-Sharaa’s foreign policy success and his mixed domestic policy performance.

· The effect of lifting sanctions and Syria’s economic recovery.

· Southern Syria’s clashes, the Druze, and Israel’s intervention.

· The future of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and U.S. counter-ISIS operations.

· The U.S. policy on Syria moving forward.

· How the region now views Syria as the key to unlocking a more stable and prosperous Middle East.

Charles Lister unpacks Syria’s past to help us understand its present and why there may finally be reason to hope for a better future.

Links from the Episode:

• Cyber Bay Registration Link

• "Building Trust in Digital Response: The Role of Chatbots in Cybercrime Prevention" Decision Brief

• "Our Knowledge of the Taliban as Guide for US Policy" JSS Article by Dr. Marvin G. Weinbaum

• 2025 Notes from Cambridge Blog

At the Boundary from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.

A "boundary" is a place, either literal or figurative, where two forces exist in close proximity to each other. Sometimes that boundary is in a state of harmony. More often than not, that boundary has a bit of chaos baked in. The Global and National Security Institute will live on the boundary of security policy and technology and that's where this podcast will focus.

The mission of GNSI is to provide actionable solutions to 21st-century security challenges for decision-makers at the local, state, national and global levels. We hope you enjoy At the Boundary.

Look for our other publications and products on our website publications page.