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In this episode of GNSI’s “At the Boundary” podcast, Arman Mahmoudian, PhD, interviews Marvin G. Weinbaum, PhD, who is senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Drawing on his recent article, “Our Knowledge of the Taliban as Guide for US Policy” ( which was recently published in the Journal of Strategic Security), Dr. Weinbaum offers a detailed assessment of the collapse of the Afghan state and the return of the Taliban in 2021.

This episode discusses:

• Why the U.S. failed at state-building and counterinsurgency in Afghanistan
• The shift from counterterrorism to democratic nation-building
• Weinbaum’s analysis of Afghan leadership under Karzai and Ghani, and how their governance choices helped shape the state’s collapse
• Fragmentation within the Taliban leadership
• How the presence of ISIS-K pressures Taliban unity and policy
• The collapse of U.S. military support and Afghan troop morale
• Dangers of a failed Taliban state and the regional risk of civil war
• Weinbaum’s direct message to Afghans affected by the regime change

Throughout the interview, Weinbaum emphasizes that U.S. disengagement has reduced its leverage on critical issues like human rights, warning that effective diplomacy with the Taliban requires long-term engagement, not conditional demands. He also argues that continued absence risks ceding influence to regional powers already moving toward recognition.

Links from the episode:

• Register for CyberBay Here!

• GNSI Tampa Summit 5 Report (March 2025) The Russia-Ukraine War: Lessons for Future Conflicts

• The Latest Journal of Strategic Security (JSS)

• GNSI’s Axis of Resistance Research Initiative Playlist

At the Boundary from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.

A "boundary" is a place, either literal or figurative, where two forces exist in close proximity to each other. Sometimes that boundary is in a state of harmony. More often than not, that boundary has a bit of chaos baked in. The Global and National Security Institute will live on the boundary of security policy and technology and that's where this podcast will focus.

The mission of GNSI is to provide actionable solutions to 21st-century security challenges for decision-makers at the local, state, national and global levels. We hope you enjoy At the Boundary.

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