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Weighing The Risks

Weighing The Risks

By: Orion Advisor Technology
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 Weighing The Risks was created to help you, the financial advisor or investor, reach your long-term financial goals. In each episode, we consider various market scenarios to help prepare for the certainty of uncertainty. Remember to look at where you're going to, not what you're going through. Brought to you by Orion. Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use. 0140-OAT-1/18/2024Orion Economics Personal Finance
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Episodes
  • Chris Davis of Davis Funds - What To Think And Do With Market Volatility

    Chris Davis of Davis Funds - What To Think And Do With Market Volatility
    Apr 28 2025
    This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager at Davis Funds. Chris C. Davis joined Davis Advisors in 1989. He has more than 37 years experience in investment management and securities research. Mr. Davis is a Portfolio Manager for the Davis Large Cap and Financial Portfolios. He is a member of the research team for other Portfolios. Mr. Davis received his M.A. from the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.Key Takeaways[04:16] - Chris’ professional background and more on his work at Davis’ Advisors[08:03] - How does Chris define risk and how does he think advisors and investors should think about it?[11:30] - Given the backdrop of enhanced volatility, how should investors weigh and think about the headlines versus the fundamentals of a company?[18:27] - What are some key indicators that Chris monitors for the health of the financial sector, as well as the broader economy? Also, the yield curve recently inverted. Is that a warning sign or another false signal?[24:16] - Might cryptocurrencies and stable coins disrupt credit card companies and how they generate fees?[34:47] - What does Chris think is in store for the financial sector for the rest of the year, as well as the years ahead?[39:55] - Does Chris have any advice that he thinks advisors and investors should really think about right now?[47:01] - Base case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is[50:35] - Bad case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is[55:43] - Good case economic outlook and how probable Chris thinks this is[62:37] - Are there any other risks that Chris thinks investors and advisors should be considering right now?[66:45] - Does Chris have a book recommendation for this particular time in the markets and economy? Quotes[09:33] ~ “If I was to put it purely in financial terms, to me risk is the permanent loss of purchasing power over the contemplated investment time horizon. So, it’s that permanent, and substantial, loss of capital. We measure that not just in terms of the dollar amount that we start with, but the purchasing power of that. That’s not been a relevant distinction in the last twenty or thirty years of low inflation, but I came of age in the 70s where your purchasing power might have been degrading 13-15% a year. So, we really think about that idea of the degradation of purchasing power, overtime, as really sort of the central tenant when we make an investment decision…” ~ Chris Davis[33:41] ~ “I think this march of technology in financial services is super exciting. My prediction in the short-term, and I’ll say short to mid-term - in the next five years, is that it makes the largest companies more valuable and more profitable. It increases scale advantages, which didn’t exist in financial services for most of the last fifty years, there’s real scale advantages now…longer term I think there may be bigger risk [though].” ~ Chris DavisLinksDavis Advisors on LinkedIn“Gotta Serve Somebody” (Cover) - Muscle Shoals FundraiserDavis FundsConnect with UsMeet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment OfficerCheck Out All of Orion’s PodcastsPower Your Growth with OrionDisclosure(s)Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org. Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.Compliance Code: 1200-R-25114
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    1 hr and 12 mins
  • Grant Engelbart of Carson Group - Bro Bubble Popping?

    Grant Engelbart of Carson Group - Bro Bubble Popping?
    Apr 2 2025
    This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Grant Engelbart, Vice President, Investment Strategist at Carson Group. Grant Engelbart serves as Vice President, Investment Strategist for Carson Group. In this role, Grant is part of the team responsible for the management of the Carson Investment platform, In-house Carson model portfolios, and contribution to the overall asset allocation viewpoints of the investment team. Before joining Carson, Grant was the Deputy CIO of ETFs and SMAs at Brinker Capital Investments (part of Orion Advisor Solutions). At Brinker, Grant was part of the discretionary investment team responsible for many assets across investment vehicles, and managed accounts ranging from individual 401ks to large university endowments. Prior to joining Brinker Capital Investments, Grant held positions at CLS Investments (which has since rebranded to Brinker Capital Investments), TD Ameritrade, and State Street Corporation. Grant received his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. He is a CFA® Charter holder, holds the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, DACFP Certificate in Blockchain and Digital Assets, Candriam Certificate in Sustainable and Responsible Investing and Series 65 registration. He is a member of the CFA® Society of Nebraska and the CAIA Chicago chapter. He has contributed to numerous publications and is an active contributor to commentary related to the ETF industry. Grant has three young children with his wife Jessica. He’s passionate about any University of Nebraska sports team, golf, basketball and most outside activities. He is actively involved in his local church and other Omaha-based organizations. Grant Engelbart is not registered with Cetera Advisor Networks LLC.Key Takeaways[03:00] - Grant’s professional background and more on his current role at Carson Group[06:07] - Many of the “Bro Bubble” members are meaningfully off their highs. Why has sentiment shifted so drastically in just one quarter? Are these meme stocks a pump and dumb type scheme fueled by the second coming of Wall Street Bets?[07:50] - Will the “Bro Bubble” popping kick off a broader market shift or is it just an example of the air coming out of some of the bad momentum names?[09:25] - Does Grant think the bubble did pop for the “Bro Bubble” names or did it just lose a little layer? Could these potentially re-inflate and, if so, what are the catalysts needed for this re-inflation to occur?[11:20] - What are some of the catalysts encouraging the outflow from the “Bro Bubble” stocks into international markets and might this trend continue?[13:47] - How should advisors think about positioning their portfolios in light of the Trump administration's commitment to sweeping policy changes?[18:37] - Base case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is[20:57] - Bad case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is[23:07] - Good case market scenario, it’s impacts on the Bro Bubble and how probable Grant thinks this outcome is[25:32] - Are there any other risks our listeners should be considering? Quotes[09:29] ~ “At a certain point because of Deepseek, which is one the early catalysts for this in some ways, the vulnerability to AI names, which not all these Bro Bubble names are not AI plays per se, but there's involvement there. Then the relationship with the Trump White House, and whatever was happening post election for these names, I think both of those have created an environment where you can’t price Palantir at 240x earnings….I wouldn’t say [there has been]...a complete, utter, ridiculous pop, but there’s an adjustment to a more realistic expectation for these companies going forward. ” ~ Grant Engelbart[12:22] ~ “The trend reversal in international stocks is really important, emerging markets is part of that as well, and we have brought our emerging market and international stock weights back to neutral, it was underweight for a period of time, mostly due to the dollar strength. They have potentially fiscal tailwinds behind them now, inflation is in a better place in many cases and then there’s a valuation tailwind for international stocks in a big way as well, so…that’s definitely an area to keep, at a minimum, at neutral weight in your portfolios.” ~ Grant EngelbartLinksGrant Engelbart on LinkedInCarson GroupEconomic OutlookInsights“Sirius” by The Alan Parsons ProjectConnect with UsMeet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment OfficerCheck Out All of Orion’s PodcastsPower Your Growth with OrionDisclosure(s)Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)The CFA® is a globally respected...
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    30 mins
  • Dan Davidowitz of Polen Capital - Are There Bubbles in the Stock Market?

    Dan Davidowitz of Polen Capital - Are There Bubbles in the Stock Market?
    Mar 5 2025
    This week on Weighing the Risks we are joined by Dan Davidowitz, lead Portfolio Manager of Polen Capital's Focus Growth strategy. Dan is lead Portfolio Manager of Polen Capital's Focus Growth strategy. Prior to joining Polen Capital in 2005, Dan spent five years as Vice President and Research Analyst at Osprey Partners Investment Management. Previously, Dan spent one year as a Research Analyst at Value Line, Inc. and five years in the health care sector, holding various analytical positions at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. Dan received a B.S. with high honors in Public Health from Rutgers University and an M.B.A. from the City University of New York, Baruch College Zicklin School of Business. Dan is a CFA® charterholder and a member of the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of South Florida.Key Takeaways[02:23] - Dan’s professional background and more on his current role at Pollen Capital[04:57] - How does Dan define risk and how does he think that advisors and investors should think about it?[06:14] - What risks keep Dan up at night and what guardrails, and indicators, does he keep an eye on as signals to protect against a bad market environment?[08:53] - What does Dan think about earnings growth for companies going into 2026 and beyond? Would an earnings growth contraction, or just deceleration, hurt the higher flying stocks?[11:51] - Have any of the recent developments in AI, and large language models, shifted Polen’s investment thesis in the space?[16:34] - Where is Dan seeing opportunities abroad and what does he think of China?[18:55] - How does Polen’s quality tilt flavor the opportunities that Dan sees the market presenting? What pockets of the market are getting him really excited at the moment?[22:37] - Base case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is[24:10] - Bad case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is[27:39] - Good case market scenario and how probable Dan thinks this is[32:23] - Are there any other risks that Dan thinks our listeners should be considering? Quotes[09:27] ~ “What’s extraordinarily consistent about corporate America’s earnings growth, is overtime it does tend to kind of smooth out to around 6% or 7% earnings growth through cycles…for the S&P500, and then you put dividends on top of that, and that’s how you get the return of the S&P500 overtime. Our portfolio is not too much different than that, except the levers are a little bit different. So, our companies are growth companies, they don’t really pay out a lot of dividends, so we don’t get much of our returns from dividends, if at all. But, the earnings growth of our portfolio is significantly faster.” ~ Dan Davidowitz[14:18] ~ “Every time there’s been a big technological transformation, it starts with hardware and then you have services and applications built on top of that hardware that eventually become the real value creating stuff…like the Amazons and Googles that were built on the broadband internet, we’re going to have something similar with generative AI. You’re going to have native Gen AI businesses, and also generative AI add-ons to existing businesses that are going to be value creative. Polen Capital is looking more toward that later group. We want to be part of the services and applications that have long-term, durable recurring revenue that will last a long time…but we are not looking to play the cyclical hardware so to speak.” ~ Dan DavidowitzLinksDan Davidowitz on LinkedInPolen Capital“Spoonman” by SoundgardenConnect with UsMeet Rusty Vanneman, Orion’s Chief Investment OfficerCheck Out All of Orion’s PodcastsPower Your Growth with OrionDisclosure(s)Wealth Management services are offered by Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC d/b/a Brinker Capital Investments a registered investment advisor. Orion Portfolio Solutions, LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of Orion Advisor Solutions, Inc. (“Orion”)The CFA® is a globally respected, graduate-level investment credential established in 1962 and awarded by CFA Institute — the largest global association of investment professionals. To learn more about the CFA charter, visit www.cfainstitute.org. Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.Compliance Code: 0564-R-25058
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    38 mins

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