US Slaps 50 Percent Tariffs on India Sparking Trade War Economic Tensions and Potential Global Supply Chain Realignment
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US Slaps 50 Percent Tariffs on India Sparking Trade War Economic Tensions and Potential Global Supply Chain Realignment
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India Today reports that US manufacturers themselves are alarmed by these tariffs, with former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu warning on CNBC that “it’s not India that’s worried, it’s American manufacturers who are panicking,” noting the strategic risk of alienating a vital global ally. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has condemned the move as “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” emphasizing that the tariffs are in direct response to India’s oil trade with Russia, a practice the US itself and other allies continue in various forms.
The impact is serious. The Indian Express cites UBS Chief India Economist Tanvee Gupta Jain, who estimates that $30 to $35 billion of India’s merchandise exports to America—out of $87 billion in 2024—are at risk, potentially dragging India’s GDP growth down by almost a full percentage point over the next two years. Some sectors, like pharma and smartphones, are still exempt due to ongoing Section 232 investigations, representing about 30 percent of Indian exports to the US.
India isn’t taking the hit quietly. The Hindustan Times and Moneycontrol both report that New Delhi is weighing its first formal tariff retaliation on selected US goods, especially after the parallel dispute over steel and aluminum duties. India’s government has begun preparing legal grounds at the World Trade Organization and is considering proportional tariff measures to respond in kind. The US, meanwhile, has so far signaled no willingness to return to the negotiating table.
The diplomatic fallout is already visible. According to Jacobin, India has suspended a planned purchase of US weapons and cancelled its defense minister’s visit to Washington. Instead, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, marking a potential thaw with Beijing even as US-India relations hit a low point.
This is not just a trade dispute—it’s a pivotal moment for India's role in global supply chains and international alliances. As FT notes, Trump's tariffs could reshape sourcing strategies, and India’s growing exports in electronics and smartphones might still find opportunities elsewhere. Indian policymakers are eyeing closer ties with BRICS partners and expanded trade negotiations with the EU, UK, and ASEAN.
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