John Diamond breaks down three major developments. First, a federal appeals court has ruled that President Donald Trump unlawfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose his sweeping tariffs. Second, a new executive order from Trump eliminates the de minimis exemption, which had allowed imports worth $800 or less to enter the country tax-free. Third, new jobs numbers show an increasingly fragile labor market.

This conversation was recorded on Sept. 3, 2025.

Clips used in this episode:

1. “BREAKING: U.S. appeals court rules Trump's global tariffs are illegal,” NBC News, August 29, 2025.
2. “‘US will be destroyed if…’” The Economic Times, September 1, 2025.
3. “Trump ends tariff exemption for low-value packages,” CNN, August 29, 2025.
4. “US July Jolts Report: Job openings fall by 176,000,” Bloomberg Television, September 3, 2025.

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The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate — keeping prices stable and achieving maximum employment — is being tested.

At its Sept. 17 meeting, the central bank must decide whether or not to cut interest rates, a decision complicated by persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, and an escalating pressure campaign waged by the Donald Trump administration. Trump has pushed for steep rate cuts, repeatedly called for Fed chair Jerome Powell to step down, and more recently moved to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook in a broader effort to gain leverage over the independent agency.

John Diamond lays out the political and monetary challenges facing the Fed and explains what really matters for the country’s long-term economic health.

This conversation was recorded on Aug. 27, 2025.

Clips used in this episode:

1. “Trump calls Fed chair Powell ‘stupid person,’” Reuters, June 18, 2025.
2. “New Fed statement about Trump plan to fire Lisa Cook,” CBS News, August 26, 2025.
3. “Fed Chair Powell: Labor market is in a ‘curious kind of balance,’” CNBC, August 22, 2025.

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You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Last month, President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed the Republican-led House in a 215-214 vote. The White House has said the bill won’t add to the federal deficit, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill would add to the debt by approximately $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034. Who’s right?

John Diamond reviews the numbers and explains why the tax bill, as written, can’t increase growth enough to offset its trillions in revenue declines, plus why ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff policy will only further reduce economic growth.

Mentioned in this episode:

Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61461

White House Council of Economic Advisers, Preserving and Expanding Low Tax Rates to Create American Economic Prosperity, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Preserving-and-Expanding-Low-Tax-Rates-to-Create-American-Economic-Prosperity.pdf

Tax Foundation, “Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis, https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-house-gop-tax-plan/

This conversation was recorded on June 3, 2025.

A transcript is available here: https://bit.ly/4kq8QnD

Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.