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The Truth About Investment Assumptions: Average vs. Actual Returns

The Truth About Investment Assumptions: Average vs. Actual Returns

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In this episode of the Make It Personal Podcast, host Mark Zagurski tackles one of the most overlooked yet critical components of financial planning: assumptions. Every solid financial plan relies on a mix of facts, like your age and income, and assumptions, such as how long you’ll live, what inflation will look like, and most importantly, your expected rate of return. But what happens when those assumptions don’t align with reality?

Mark dives into the crucial distinction between average and actual rates of return, showing how misleading averages can distort your financial picture. Using simple, relatable examples, including a breakdown of the S&P 500’s performance over 30 years, Mark explains how sequence of returns and real-world market behavior can significantly impact your savings and retirement outcomes.

Whether you're accumulating wealth or planning retirement withdrawals, understanding the true nature of investment returns is vital. This episode underscores the importance of keeping your plan updated and partnering with a trusted advisor who can adjust your strategy as life and the market evolve.

Key takeaways:

  • Every financial plan is built on facts and assumptions, both need regular review.

  • Average rate of return and actual return are not the same and can lead to very different outcomes.

  • The S&P 500’s long-term average of 10.59% translated to a real return closer to 8.97% over 30 years.

  • Overestimating returns during retirement can cause you to outlive your money.

  • Ongoing plan reviews and realistic assumptions improve your chances of meeting long-term goals.

Want to ensure your financial assumptions are on track? Visit www.makeitpersonalpodcast.com to download our free eBook or connect with one of our expert advisors for a no-obligation consultation. Make your financial plan personal, and powerful!

“The average return might sound impressive, but it’s the actual return that tells the real story.” - Mark Zagurski

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Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

This podcast is for educational purposes only and may include references to concepts that have legal and/or tax implications. Mutual of Omaha Investor Services, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice. Please consult with the appropriate professional regarding your personal situation prior to making any financial decisions. Strategies discussed may not be suitable for everyone. Securities and advisory services offered through Mutual of Omaha Investor Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Mutual of Omaha Advisors is a division of Mutual of Omaha Insurance Company.

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