Episodes

  • Yesterday’s Winners, Tomorrow’s Losers

    Yesterday’s Winners, Tomorrow’s Losers
    May 6 2025
    Chapter Nine Yesterday’s Winners, Tomorrow’s Losers - Fooled by Randomness* IN SELECTING MUTUAL FUNDS, most fund investors seem to rely, not on sustained performance over the long term, but on exciting performance over the short term. (Exhibits 5.2 and 5.3 in Chapter 5 reinforce this point.)
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    10 mins
  • Selecting Long-Term Winners

    Selecting Long-Term Winners
    May 6 2025
    Chapter Eight Selecting Long-Term Winners - Don’t Look for the Needle— Buy the Haystack. SELECTING WINNING FUNDS in advance is more diffi- cult than it looks. Sure, there are always some winners that survive over the years. And if we pore over records of past performance, it is easy to find them.
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    14 mins
  • When the Good Times No Longer Roll

    When the Good Times No Longer Roll
    May 6 2025
    Chapter Seven When the Good Times No Longer Roll - What Happens If Future Returns Are Lower? REMEMBER THE UNFAILING principle described in Chapter 2: in the long run it is the reality of business—the dividend yields and earnings growth of corporations—that drives the returns generated by the stock market. How- ever, I must warn you that during the past 25 years—the period examined in the three preceding chapters—the 12.5 percent nominal annual return provided by the U.S. stock market included a speculative return of nearly 3 percent per year, far above the business reality
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    15 mins
  • Taxes Are Costs, Too

    Taxes Are Costs, Too
    May 6 2025
    Chapter Six Taxes Are Costs, Too - Don’t Pay Uncle Sam Any More Than You Should. WE STILL AREN’T THROUGH with these relentless rules of humble arithmetic—the logical, inevitable, and unyield- ing long-term penalties assessed against stock market par- ticipants by investment expenses and the powerful impact of inflation—that have slashed the capital accumulated by mutual fund investors.
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    12 mins
  • The Grand Illusion

    The Grand Illusion
    May 2 2025
    Chapter Five The Grand Illusion - Surprise! The Returns Reported by Mutual Funds Aren’t Actually Earned by Mutual Fund Investors. IT IS GRATIFYING THAT industry insiders such as the In- vestment Company Institute’s (ICI’s) chairman Jon Fossel, Fidelity’s Peter Lynch, Mad Money’s James Cramer, and AQR’s Clifford Asness agree with me about the inevitable inadequacy of returns earned by the typical equity mutual fund relative to the returns available simply by owning the stock market through an index fund based on the S&P 500.
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    14 mins
  • How Most Investors Turn a Winner’s Game Into a Loser’s Game

    How Most Investors Turn a Winner’s Game Into a Loser’s Game
    May 2 2025
    Chapter Four How Most Investors Turn a Winner’s Game Into a Loser’s Game - “The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic” BEFORE WE TURN TO the success of indexing as an invest- ment strategy, let’s explore in a bit more depth just why it is that investors as a group fail to earn the returns that our corporations generate through their dividends and earnings growth, ultimately reflected in the prices of their stocks.
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    16 mins
  • Cast Your Lot With Business

    Cast Your Lot With Business
    May 2 2025
    Chapter Three Cast Your Lot With Business - Rely on Occam’s Razor to Win by Keeping It Simple. SO HOW DO YOU cast your lot with business? Simply by buying a portfolio that owns the shares of every business in the United States and then holding it forever.
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    14 mins
  • Rational Exuberance

    Rational Exuberance
    May 2 2025
    Chapter Two Rational Exuberance - Business Reality Trumps Market Expectations. THAT WONDERFUL PARABLE ABOUT the Gotrocks family in Chapter 1 brings home the central reality of investing: “The most that owners in the aggregate can earn between now and Judgment Day is what their business in the aggre- gate earns,” in the words of Warren Buffett.
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    11 mins