The beauty sector historically thrived during economic downturns, earning a recession-proof reputation encapsulated in the “lipstick index.” However, recent earnings from major beauty conglomerates like Estée Lauder, L'Oréal, Coty and Shiseido indicate that beauty’s resilience is being tested. Sales are declining, layoffs are coming and consumer habits appear to be shifting dramatically.

BoF Senior Beauty Correspondent Daniela Morosini joins Brian Baskin and Sheena Butler-Young on The Debrief to examine what's driving this slowdown and how the industry is adapting.

Key Insights:

• Traditionally, small luxury purchases like beauty products thrived during economic pressure. But the landscape has changed. “Prices have really, really grown, and there's just so much more to choose from,” says Morosini. The combination of escalating prices, excessive market saturation, and a shift to online platforms like Amazon and TikTok has diluted the impact of small luxury indulgences. "It's really hard to get seen. So even if you have a more affordable product that more people can afford, you still have to get people to come and look at you and come and interact with you," she adds.

• Brands once benefited from consistent replenishment and customer loyalty. Today, consumers are more transient, constantly seeking newness. “Customers seem to have this insatiable appetite for more products and more newness,” Morosini notes. But after years of heavy consumption, shoppers are starting to tire of new for the sake of new. “Something that’s really starting to come into focus is that, specifically, American middle-class shoppers are starting to buy fewer beauty products – and that’s having a big knock-on effect.”

• As consumers become more price-sensitive, brands need to redefine value beyond just pricing. Morosini suggests brands return to basics, emphasising their core strengths and fostering loyalty through consistent, quality products rather than frequent launches. "People are really, really attuned to perceptions of value," says Morosini.

Additional Resources:

• The Beauty Slowdown, Explained | BoF
• The End of the Lipstick Index | BoF

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As inflation bites and politics polarise, the fashion industry in 2025 is facing unprecedented pressure to hold onto its customers. Brands are looking to community as a deeper and more emotional form of engagement. But building true community takes more than buzzwords.

In this episode, BoF correspondent Lei Takanashi joins hosts Sheena Butler-Young and Brian Baskin to unpack his case study on what it really means to cultivate community in fashion and how brands are navigating the pitfalls.

Key Insights:

• In a time when consumers are thinking hard about every purchase, community offers a sense of connection and meaning that goes beyond the product itself. "When I'm shopping today, I'm thinking more about what eggs I'm going to buy this week than the latest release from a brand," says Takanashi. "What really now drives me to make a purchase is like, what does this brand represent? What are its values? How has it improved my life beyond just something I wear?"

• Different communities serve different purposes, each demanding a unique approach. Takanashi outlines three community types: activity-based, personality-driven and values-driven. Activity-based communities are rooted in shared interests or habits, such as running, where engagement happens naturally through events or clubs. Personality-driven communities hinge on a founder’s charisma and relatability: "People have to see that founder story and kind of see themselves in their shoes." Values-driven communities connect through shared beliefs and causes, but those values must be dynamic. “Your definition of a value can’t be rigid,” says Takanashi. “You have to adapt to how consumers perceive these things.”

• As brands grow, scaling community takes local focus to remain authentic. "As long as you stay committed to a localized approach and understand that it’s not one size fits all," Takanashi says, pointing to Arc'teryx and Supreme as examples of brands that scale through local relevance and hiring. In addition to staying local, real-world interaction matters and brands shouldn’t rely solely on digital engagement. “You should really be there in person at pop-ups, shake hands with people, talk to the customer... Every brand I spoke about in this case study made some effort to show up in real life."

Additional Resources:

• Case Study | How Brands Build Genuine Communities | BoF
• What Makes a True Community Brand? | BoF
• How Brands Make Community More Than a Buzzword | BoF

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On May 12, the US and China reached a deal to temporarily reduce tariffs for 90 days, offering a breather from an escalating trade war. Stocks surged on the news, but experts warn this relief might not fully resolve deeper industry uncertainties or consumer anxieties.

BoF retail editor Cathleen Chen and technology correspondent Marc Bain join hosts Brian Baskin and Sheena Butler-Young to unpack the ramifications of the tariff pause and what the fashion industry can expect moving forward.

Key Insights:

• Tariffs have reduced, but costs still remain high. The Trump administration’s initial 145 percent tariff effectively banned imports from China, a situation now alleviated but not fully resolved. "Lowering that to 30% is a different situation," Bain explains. "It's saying, go ahead, import your stuff, but it's gonna still be expensive."

• The tariff pause offers temporary clarity, but major production hubs like Vietnam and Cambodia face continuing uncertainty. "Depending on what happens with those negotiations, the whole landscape could shift," Bain notes, as retailers remain cautious about long-term production decisions.

• Tariffs are not the industry's only concern as consumer sentiment will significantly shape demand. "Beyond what's going to happen with tariffs with dozens of countries, there's also the issue of consumer confidence and sentiment and whether there will be demand to drive sales for the products that do end up in the U.S.," Chen highlights, questioning the robustness of future sales.

• Despite an easing in the tariff rate for small shipments from platforms like Shein and Temu, the overall uncertainty around the future of the “de minimis” loophole might dampen consumer enthusiasm. "All the news about Shein and Temu has been enough to just keep that customer away," Chen suggests. "I feel like there might be this attitude of, we had a good run of really cheap stuff for a couple of years and maybe you've had enough of it now."

• Brands should focus on diversifying their supply chains and strengthening industry partnerships. Bain advises brands to "have some redundancy built in. So if one location becomes untenable, you can shift to another spot." Meanwhile, Chen emphasises the importance of collaboration: "Now is a really great time to forge stronger ties to your suppliers, your vendors, even your retail partners," ensuring shared responsibility and minimised impact on consumers.

Additional Resources:

• With the Trade War on Pause, Here’s What’s Next for Fashion | BoF

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