In this back-to-school update, Sam McGee covers the current state of the U.S. economy and financial markets as of August 2025. He discusses the relationship between the economy and markets, recent trends in unemployment, inflation, real estate, and interest rates, and provides insights into what may be ahead for investors. The episode also touches on the Federal Reserve’s actions, market volatility, and the importance of diversification in financial planning. If you’re looking to catch up on economic news and market trends as the school year begins, this episode is for you!

00:00 – Introduction & Disclaimer

00:34 – Back to School: Timing and Parental Routines

01:02 – Economy vs. Financial Markets: Key Differences

01:29 – What is the Economy? (Lagging Indicator)

02:03 – Financial Markets as Leading Indicators

02:28 – Market Volatility and Irrationality in 2025

03:00 – S&P 500 Performance: Downturn and Rebound

03:28 – State of the Economy: Key Bullet Points

03:49 – U.S. Unemployment Data (July 2025)

04:09 – Comparing Unemployment: 2020 vs. 2025

04:36 – Government Stimulus and Unemployment Trends

05:07 – Current Unemployment Rate and Historical Context

05:28 – U.S. Consumer Price Index & Inflation Trends

05:50 – Fed Rate Hikes and Impact on Inflation

06:30 – CPI Drop and Current Inflation Rate

06:51 – Real Estate Market Overview

07:13 – Case Shiller Home Price Index Trends

07:25 – Home Prices, Interest Rates, and Inventory

07:44 – Effects of High Prices and Low Inventory

08:17 – Seller Behavior and Market Adjustments

08:37 – Mortgage Rates and Buyer/Seller Dynamics

08:51 – U.S. Company Earnings and Economic Resilience

09:27 – Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation

09:55 – Inflation Uptick and Fed’s Dilemma

10:53 – The Fed’s Balancing Act: Inflation vs. Economy

11:12 – Rate Cut Predictions and Market Expectations

11:34 – Financial Markets: Year-to-Date Performance

12:01 – S&P 500 and ETF Performance

12:36 – Growth vs. Value: Russell 1000 Indices

13:03 – Market Resilience Amid Geopolitical Risks

13:29 – Recap: Economic and Market Update

13:54 – Crestmont Private Wealth’s Approach & Contact Info

14:22 – Outro and Closing Remarks

• Original Air Date: August 9, 2025 at 8:30am as heard on Boerne Radio 103.9FM

  Contact: www.crestmontpw.com

  Alec Walker in Houston: 831-280-5288

  Sam McGee in Boerne: 830-368-2898

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