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Migration: The needle in the data haystack

Migration: The needle in the data haystack

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 With migration continuing to make headlines in the media, we unpack what actually defines a “migrant”, and how the UK’s largest producer of official statistics goes about counting them. We also shed light on the misuse of migration figures. Transcript MILES FLETCHER Hello and a very warm welcome to a new series of Statistically Speaking - the official podcast of the UK Office for National Statistics. This is where we hear from the people producing the nation's most important numbers, about how they do it and what the statistics are saying. Now it's hard to think of one statistic that could be said to have been more influential these past few years than net international migration. Suffice to say it's the one ONS statistic that probably draws more media attention than any other. But to fully understand the migration figures, and the swirling debate around them, we'd say it pays to know a little about how they are put together. And the first thing you need to know about that is what, or who, is a migrant in the first place. As usual, to unpack and explain the migration statistics we have the top experts from the ONS and beyond. Mary Gregory is director of population statistics here at the ONS. Madeleine Sumption is director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, and new chair of the National Statistician’s Advisory Panel on Migration. And to help us understand how the numbers are used and abused in public debate, we're also delighted to welcome Hannah Smith, senior political journalist at fact checking charity Full Fact. Welcome to you all. Madeleine, to start with you if I may, with that fundamental question, quite simply, what is a migrant? MADELEINE SUMPTION Well, there are actually lots of different definitions of a migrant and we use different definitions at different points in time. The standard definition of migration that we use in this country is long term migration, so people moving for at least 12 months, and so the Office for National Statistics figures on immigration, emigration and net migration are all using that definition. And people in that data, they're migrants regardless of whether they are British or not British. So you could have a British person who's gone to live overseas for a few years and coming back they would be counted, in theory, at least in the data, as a migrant. There are other definitions though that are very useful for policy. So sometimes people talk about migrants, meaning people who don't have British citizenship, and the value of that is that these are people who are subject to immigration control, effectively that the Home Office is regulating their status. But it's also sometimes quite useful not to look at whether someone's a citizen now, because of course people can change their citizenship, and many migrants to the UK do become British citizens. So it can be useful to look at whether someone has migrated in the past. The standard definition for that is whether someone is born abroad. But now we've got all these exciting new data sets from administrative data, and so there's a new definition that's creeping in and being used a lot, which is someone who was a non-citizen at the time they registered for their National Insurance Number, regardless of whether they've subsequently become a British citizen. So it's a bit confusing sometimes for the external user, because for various reasons, we have to have all of these different definitions. You just have to know which one you're looking at at any point in time. MILES FLETCHER But the basic headline definition, as far as the ONS is concerned -and I guess internationally too because it's important that these figures are comparable- is that it is a person traveling from one country to another for a period of 12 months. MADELEINE SUMPTION That's right MILES FLETCHER And I guess that is something that is perhaps not widely understood. People understand that migration has a degree of permanence, so they move from one country to another, and yet you can be a migrant in quite a sort of transient way. MADELEINE SUMPTION That’s right, we have short term migrants as well. So we have a lot of people who come to this country to do seasonal work. For example, they spend up to six months in the country. Then you have people who are long term migrants by the ONS definition and they may spend two to three years here, for example, if they're a worker or an international student. So you're right. I think in people's minds, often when they think about who is a migrant and who comes to mind, they will typically think of someone who is moving permanently. But actually a lot of migrants to the UK only stay for a couple of years. MILES FLETCHER And none of these people, when it comes to measuring them, none of these people arrive Paddington Bear style with labels around their necks saying “I am a migrant”. The ...
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