LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

By: LessWrong
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  • Summary

  • Audio narrations of LessWrong posts. Includes all curated posts and all posts with 125+ karma.

    If you'd like more, subscribe to the “Lesswrong (30+ karma)” feed.
    © 2025 LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
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Episodes
  • “Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertainty, MoE Data Wall” by Vladimir_Nesov

    “Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertainty, MoE Data Wall” by Vladimir_Nesov
    May 3 2025
    It'll take until ~2050 to repeat the level of scaling that pretraining compute is experiencing this decade, as increasing funding can't sustain the current pace beyond ~2029 if AI doesn't deliver a transformative commercial success by then. Natural text data will also run out around that time, and there are signs that current methods of reasoning training might be mostly eliciting capabilities from the base model.

    If scaling of reasoning training doesn't bear out actual creation of new capabilities that are sufficiently general, and pretraining at ~2030 levels of compute together with the low hanging fruit of scaffolding doesn't bring AI to crucial capability thresholds, then it might take a while. Possibly decades, since training compute will be growing 3x-4x slower after 2027-2029 than it does now, and the ~6 years of scaling since the ChatGPT moment stretch to 20-25 subsequent years, not even having access to any [...]

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    Outline:

    (01:14) Training Compute Slowdown

    (04:43) Bounded Potential of Thinking Training

    (07:43) Data Inefficiency of MoE

    The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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    First published:
    May 1st, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XiMRyQcEyKCryST8T/slowdown-after-2028-compute-rlvr-uncertainty-moe-data-wall

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    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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    12 mins
  • “Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee

    “Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee
    May 1 2025
    In this blog post, we analyse how the recent AI 2027 forecast by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean has been discussed across Chinese language platforms. We present:

    1. Our research methodology and synthesis of key findings across media artefacts
    2. A proposal for how censorship patterns may provide signal for the Chinese government's thinking about AGI and the race to superintelligence
    3. A more detailed analysis of each of the nine artefacts, organised by type: Mainstream Media, Forum Discussion, Bilibili (Chinese Youtube) Videos, Personal Blogs.
    Methodology We conducted a comprehensive search across major Chinese-language platforms–including news outlets, video platforms, forums, microblogging sites, and personal blogs–to collect the media featured in this report. We supplemented this with Deep Research to identify additional sites mentioning AI 2027. Our analysis focuses primarily on content published in the first few days (4-7 April) following the report's release. More media [...]

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    Outline:

    (00:58) Methodology

    (01:36) Summary

    (02:48) Censorship as Signal

    (07:29) Analysis

    (07:53) Mainstream Media

    (07:57) English Title: Doomsday Timeline is Here! Former OpenAI Researcher's 76-page Hardcore Simulation: ASI Takes Over the World in 2027, Humans Become NPCs

    (10:27) Forum Discussion

    (10:31) English Title: What do you think of former OpenAI researcher's AI 2027 predictions?

    (13:34) Bilibili Videos

    (13:38) English Title: \[AI 2027\] A mind-expanding wargame simulation of artificial intelligence competition by a former OpenAI researcher

    (15:24) English Title: Predicting AI Development in 2027

    (17:13) Personal Blogs

    (17:16) English Title: Doomsday Timeline: AI 2027 Depicts the Arrival of Superintelligence and the Fate of Humanity Within the Decade

    (18:30) English Title: AI 2027: Expert Predictions on the Artificial Intelligence Explosion

    (21:57) English Title: AI 2027: A Science Fiction Article

    (23:16) English Title: Will AGI Take Over the World in 2027?

    (25:46) English Title: AI 2027 Prediction Report: AI May Fully Surpass Humans by 2027

    (27:05) Acknowledgements

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    First published:
    April 30th, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JW7nttjTYmgWMqBaF/early-chinese-language-media-coverage-of-the-ai-2027-report

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    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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    28 mins
  • [Linkpost] “Jaan Tallinn’s 2024 Philanthropy Overview” by jaan

    [Linkpost] “Jaan Tallinn’s 2024 Philanthropy Overview” by jaan
    Apr 25 2025
    This is a link post. to follow up my philantropic pledge from 2020, i've updated my philanthropy page with the 2024 results.

    in 2024 my donations funded $51M worth of endpoint grants (plus $2.0M in admin overhead and philanthropic software development). this comfortably exceeded my 2024 commitment of $42M (20k times $2100.00 — the minimum price of ETH in 2024).

    this also concludes my 5-year donation pledge, but of course my philanthropy continues: eg, i’ve already made over $4M in endpoint grants in the first quarter of 2025 (not including 2024 grants that were slow to disburse), as well as pledged at least $10M to the 2025 SFF grant round.

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    First published:
    April 23rd, 2025

    Source:
    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ojWtREJjKmyvWdDb/jaan-tallinn-s-2024-philanthropy-overview

    Linkpost URL:
    https://jaan.info/philanthropy/#2024-results

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    Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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    1 min

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