Donald Trump went to Capitol Hill this week to push House Republicans across the finish line on his big domestic policy bill. Behind closed doors, he told conservatives not to “F— around with Medicaid,” and told blue-state Republicans to take the SALT deal on the table: $40,000 for four years, then snapping back to $30,000. That would cover about 90% of blue-state filers, but not the ones making the most noise. Even with Trump applying pressure, guys like Andy Harris and Mike Lawler are still holding out. Some members are softening, but others like Thomas Massie are dug in. So, for now, Speaker Mike Johnson’s goal of getting a vote within 48 hours is shaky at best.

The bill itself is massive — over 1,100 pages, with tax cuts, defense spending increases, and border policy changes. It would still remove Medicaid coverage for more than seven million people, depending on which estimate you believe. And of course, any version that passes the House is going to get shredded in the Senate. Whatever they vote on now, they’ll end up voting on something worse later. So a lot of this feels like performance. The fight is real if you’re in the trenches, but from the outside, it looks like an inevitable mess.

The bottom line is that they have to pass this. Everyone’s worried about the attack ads, about the carveouts, about what they’ll be blamed for, but if they don’t pass this, they’ve got nothing. No achievements. No wins. And that’s a death sentence for 2026. Trump knows it, and that’s why he’s pushing so hard. The longer this drags out, the more nervous the business community gets. Right now, things are relatively stable — tariffs are high but consistent, regulations are locked in, and the tax code hasn’t changed yet. That kind of stability is gold to investors. It gives them permission to move. If you pass this bill now, businesses start planning in Q3, making decisions in Q4, and consumers start to feel it by next summer — right as the midterms heat up.

And that’s the ballgame. Republicans don’t want to be running in 2026 on the ghost of Joe Biden’s presidency. They want to run on Trump’s second-term economy. They want to say, “This is what we did. Do you want to go back?” That’s the message — and it only works if the economy is good. So from a strategic perspective, if you’re a Democrat, you want this thing to grind. Drag it out. Make the House Freedom Caucus fight harder. Blow it all up and pray the delay ruins the timeline. Because that’s the only way this thing doesn’t end in a campaign-ready boom for Republicans.

My guess? The bill passes the House in the next five days. I don’t see what changes between now and the two-week delay the Freedom Caucus wants. Someone’s going to have to eat it, and most likely, that someone is going to realize there’s no better option coming. As for the SALT caucus — I’m still not sure what they’re waiting for. Whatever it is, it’s not making them look particularly sympathetic to the rest of the country.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:37 - Original Sin Book Thoughts (with Chris Cillizza)

00:35:17 - Update

00:39:13 - Big Beautiful Bull

00:48:41 - Russia Talks

00:53:17 - Kristi Noem

00:57:42 - Original Sin and the State of Cable News (with Chris Cillizza)

01:37:56 - Wrap-up