Bank of Japan January 2025 rate hike commentary and analysis summary.

• The Critical “BOJ 50bps Ceiling”
• Bank of Japan Jan’25 Meeting Markets Breakdown
• Governor Ueda’s Press Conference
• 12:42 Background Context of BOJ Rate Hikes Under Gov Ueda
• 17:05 Governor Ueda's “One More Notch” Needed
• The BOJ “Rice Price” Rate Hike
• “If The Outlook Is Realized, Bank of Japan Will Continue To Raise Rates” - What This Really Means

Further Insights & Commentary on Jan’25 Bank of Japan:

•Bank of Japan Jan’25 Rate Hike (Video)

BOJ policy rate at 0.5% is now on a knife’s edge - until the next hike, or next rate move being a cut, reinforcing the 0.5% cap.

https://westonnakamura.substack.com/p/bank-of-japan-jan25-rate-hike-video

•It’s “Official” - Nikkei: BOJ Rate Hike to 0.5% Friday

https://westonnakamura.substack.com/p/its-official-nikkei-boj-rate-hike?r=8c43a

•Nikkei Leak: “BOJ Rate Hike Likely Next Week”

https://westonnakamura.substack.com/p/nikkei-leak-boj-rate-hike-likely?r=8c43a

——

Support Across The Spread directly by subscribing on Substack for full access to differentiated, markets-first commentary and analysis of key developments out of Japan, China and the Asia Pacific region of overlooked consequence and impact to green and red blinking tickers across global markets.

Across The Spread Substack subscribers get access to earlier and full videos, written articles, notes and chats.

https://westonnakamura.substack.com

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Streamed live on Sep 30, 2024

Michael Gayed interviews Weston Nakamura once again during live market hours in Asia, as Japan implodes upon the LDP leadership election results, as Shigeru Ishiba stuns markets in a victorious runoff round against Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. Weston discusses why NKY and USDJPY are getting idiosyncratically hammered.

Meanwhile, China unleashes multifaceted stimulus measures as the biggest market development out of Asia (if not globally) in the past week - Weston and Michael discuss if this is the real-deal, or just another movie replay.

For more in depth detail, charts and more, read the corresponding article for this discussion on Across The Spread Substack below:

“Did Japan Market Just Fire Another Warning Shot Upon LDP Elections?”

👇

https://bit.ly/3BsDyew

——

Support Across The Spread directly by subscribing on Substack for full access to differentiated, markets-first commentary and analysis of key developments out of Japan, China and the Asia Pacific region of overlooked consequence and impact to green and red blinking tickers across global markets.

Across The Spread Substack subscribers get access to earlier and full videos, written articles, notes and chats.

https://westonnakamura...

Follow Weston on X: @acrossthespread

acrossthespread.com

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Filmed live on Monday August 5, 2024 during the Japan AM trading session of Black Monday 2024, the day that Japan had blown up global markets.

Michael A. Gayed of The Lead-Lag Report and Weston Nakamura from Across The Spread are live, just as the NKY225 and TOPIX Indices see a stunning -12% single-day drop, with global indices across Europe and the US following suit, all thanks to a massive (continuing) surge in JPY.

Michael and Weston discuss the JPY carry trade unwind, the Japan equity market meltdown, and the broader global market spillover effects underway, as well as touching on concepts like NISA flows into US equities.

They also dig in to the Bank of Japan's shock rate hike at the July 2024 policy meeting that had just occurred 2 days prior to Black Monday.

Read from Across The Spread:

Warning For US & Europe - Japan Is Seriously Crashing Right Now

For further insights and commentary on JPY and its correlation vs NDX, including a deeper look into CTAs, systematic flow behavior and more, see the corresponding article on Across The Spread Substack

USDJPY: 152 - The CrowdStrike of Global Markets

——

Follow Michael A. Gayed @leadlagreport

leadlagreport.substack.com

——

Support Across The Spread directly by subscribing on Substack for full access to differentiated, markets-first commentary and analysis of key developments out of Japan, China and the Asia Pacific region of overlooked consequence and impact to green and red blinking tickers across global markets.

Across The Spread Substack subscribers get access to earlier and full videos, written articles, notes and chats.

https://westonnakamura.substack.com

Follow Weston on X: @acrossthespread

acrossthespread.com

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Originally aired August 8, 2024 on YouTube: Watch the episode with charts and full context at Across The Spread Official Youtube here.

Weston Nakamura once again calls for "top-tick" on NKY and NDX futures, using his newly identified trading range on USDJPY, and explains how markets are severely misreading the latest out of Bank of Japan policy intent, dispelling Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida's "dovish remarks" as the explanation for the global equity rally and yen sell-off during the Japan trading day, and suggests a unique angle on accelerated expectations for Fed rate cuts due to the Japan market-originated global turmoil.

For further insights on the JPY carry trade, USDJPY 152, warning of Black Monday 2024 and more, visit Across The Spread Substack:

Calm During The Storm: Yen Driven Global Markets Are Misreading Bank Of Japan

Must Reads:

Weston's urgent note sent to subscribers from Friday August 2nd warning global market participants (US, Europe) of markets crashing to come, which then occurred the following Black Monday 2024, where the NKY saw a -12% intraday plunge, and hammering global equity markets alongside.

Warning For US & Europe - Japan Is Seriously Crashing Right Now

Black Monday 2024

USDJPY: 152 - The CrowdStrike of Global Markets

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Support Across The Spread on Substack by becoming a paid subscriber, and get access to the full suite of exclusive written and video content to stay on top of major market themes and globally impacting developments stemming from Asia, along with original market insights and commentary.

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Originally aired Jul 30, 2024 on YouTube: Watch the episode on video with charts to follow along at Across The Spread Official Youtube Channel here,

For further insights and commentary on JPY and its correlation vs NDX, including a deeper look into CTAs, systematic flow behavior and more, see the corresponding article on Across The Spread Substack - read here USDJPY: 152 - The CrowdStrike of Global Markets

As yen strength shakes up markets, USDJPY at 152 is the world’s most consequential green & red blinking ticker price level in the immediate term as it relates to major global markets across asset classes - from DM equities to EM currencies to gold and more, according to Weston Nakamura.

The most impactful “market player,” or market force, is Japan Ministry of Finance and their shift in yentervention tactic - as well as the Bank of Japan this coming week.

---

Support Across The Spread on Substack by becoming a paid subscriber, and get access to the full suite of exclusive written and video content to stay on top of major market themes and globally impacting developments stemming from Asia, along with original market insights and commentary.

Official Substack: https://westonnakamura.substack.com/

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Official Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@acrossthespreadYT

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Weston Nakamura's guest appearance on Endgame Podcast with @peruvian_bull discussing the Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance and the latest round of yenterventions.

Endgame Podcast: Welcome to the YenGame with Weston Nakamura

(Filmed on Friday May 3rd 2024)

2:10 Background of Bank of Japan's Radical Policy Experimentation

11:45 How Yield Curve Control Ultimately Failed

19:30 Limitations To Further JGB Buying, And Unwinding

22:57 The Carry Trade

27:52 🇯🇵BOJ + 🇦🇺RBA’s Dual YCC, AUD/JPY Carry Trade, and Risk Assets in 2020

32:10 Current State of JPY Carry Trade

37:15 Japan’s Playbook: “Aggressively Waiting” & The Unknown

45:25 “Too Big To Fail Countries” - Japan’s Moral Hazard

50:45 Yentervention Week and Near-Term Markets

56:30 A Failed Yentervention: Japan’s Biggest Immediate-Term Fear

58:50 MOF Is the Most Informed Market Parcipant

1:02:55 Japan Capital Controls?

1:06:38 Asia Regional Impact: Chinese yuan & Korean won

1:17:50 US Treasuries

Follow Peruvial Bull:

dollarendgame.substack.com

twitter.com/peruvian_bull

"Japan At War With Markets (I) - Anatomy of Yentervention Week"

Read full article on Across The Spread HERE ☛ https://bit.ly/44IUcks

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From my presentation to the investment club at Temple University Japan Campus on March 28, 2024.

• Contingency Planning: my “religion” for markets, trading, & careers (risk management)
• My Background: Bottom academics, no institutional experience, no markets knowledge, move to Tokyo with nothing → Goldman futures trading desk → Jefferies equity sales
• Trading Markets: Learn about YOURSELF WITHIN MARKETS (& not markets themselves). Pay market tuition & never take a market loss. BIG WINS are produced by: Luck + Prioritize focus, effort & intended mindset upon mitigating BIG LOSSES + Luck
• Career Commentary: Preparing for the Coming Crisis of Major Widespread & Permanent Job Destruction from Disruption - the risk of specialization, expertise & experience. Contingency Planning.
• Q&A: Advantage of NOT being Ivy League.
• 
  

A big thank you to the investment club at Temple University Japan!

Support Across The Spread by subscribing on Substack:

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Follow Weston on X: @acrossthespread

/ acrossthespread

acrossthespread.com

—

Video Clip:

Charlie Rose

06/10/2014

Lloyd Blankfein, chairman and C.E.O. of Goldman Sachs, on the shale revolution, Wall Street, and income inequality.

https://charlierose.com/videos/29860

—

NONE of this is trading or career advice, or education. All views are solely that of Weston Nakamura and Across The Spread.

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In the last of this three-part series from Across The Spread on Japan's impact on global markets with Grant Williams and Weston Nakamura, we dive into the front-and-center matter of exiting the world's last negative policy rate yield-anchor and what Bank of Japan “normalization” really means.

Read on Across The Spread Substack:

➣"Dark Skies at Aozora Bank" (Feb 1, 2024)

bit.ly/ats_Aozora_Bank

➣"What BOJ Thinks of Japan Wages and Negative Rates" (Mar 7, 2024)

bit.ly/ats_BOJ_Wages_Prices

➣"Quick Note on Market-Moving BOJ Negative Rates Headline" (Mar 15, 2024)

bit.ly/ats_Jiji_NegRate

Watch all 3 episodes of Grant Williams on Across The Spread Substack (video)

▷(Part 1) The Japan Bubble

bit.ly/ats_Video_G_Williams_Pt1

▷(Part 2) Navigating the Age of "Finfluencers"

bit.ly/atsVideo_G_Williams_Pt2

▷(Part 3) Bank of Japan's Policy Normalization

bit.ly/atsVideo_G_Williams_Pt3

Grant Williams is the author of THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO HMMM..., host of the Grant Williams Podcast Series, and co-founder of Real Vision. Prior to pioneering the long-form interview format with the most interesting minds in finance, Grant’s career in institutional finance spanned various roles around the world - but started out in a wild-west corner of trading warrants in Tokyo, 1989 - at the peak of the great Japan bubble.

I strongly recommend subscribing to The Grant Williams series of podcasts and his newsletter grant-williams.com - particularly as it relates to his current focus on Japan. As a subscriber myself, I have gotten enormous value out of Grant’s work. Link below for the recent episode from Grant’s podcast with Jesper Koll on Japan, as discussed.

THE GRANT WILLIAMS PODCAST: JESPER KOLL (December 29, 2023)

https://www.grant-williams.com/podcast/jesper-koll

Follow Grant on X @ttmygh

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As always, thank you all for your support.

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