1. UAE GDP is forecasted at 4.7% in 2025, up from 3.8% in 2024. However, the global macro landscape has become increasingly uncertain in recent times, with the IMF cutting their global growth outlook, lowering GDP growth from 3.3% to 2.8% amidst the ongoing tariff wars.

   Given the current environment of lower oil prices and ongoing trade tensions, there appears to be more downside risk to current economic forecasts than upside, both regional and globally.

   That said, growth in hydrocarbon GDP is expected to increase year-on-year due to the positive impact of the Emirate’s higher production quotas. However, with pricing for Brent Crude now around US$65/barrel, and with a slowdown in global demand expected, quotas may again come under scrutiny as markets look for a better balance.

   Headline inflation remains comparatively low despite continued growth in housing costs, forecasted at 2.5% in 2025 up from 2.1% in 2024, but still broadly within historical norms.

   The non-oil private sector will remain the key driver of the country’s economic growth despite the potentially negative effects on global trade this year due to the application of higher trade tariffs from the US.

Credit: CBRE (UAE)

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