In this final episode of The Pod of Gold for 2025, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks one of the most extraordinary years in precious metals history.

Gold has delivered its second-best annual performance since free trading began in 1979, with silver close behind. This podcast explores what drove this year’s rally and whether the bull market still has room to run into 2026. Frappell outlines his medium- and long-term price targets for both metals, breaks down positioning data across futures, ETFs and managed money, and explains why neither market appears overstretched despite the sharp gains.

The discussion then turns to the global macro backdrop shaping precious metals markets: the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward lower rates, ongoing divergence in central bank policy, rising bond yields, and the implications for the US dollar. Nicholas also examines developments in Japan, China’s prolonged property downturn, and the growing geopolitical risks tied to the Russia–Ukraine war and energy markets.

With politics, geopolitics and monetary policy increasingly intertwined, this episode provides a comprehensive wrap-up of 2025 and a clear framework for understanding the forces likely to influence gold and silver in the year ahead.

Listen now to close out the year and prepare for what lies ahead in 2026.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Gold and silver’s historic performance in 2025

• Price targets and technical outlook for 2026

• Futures, ETF and managed money positioning

• Fed rate cuts, US dollar weakness and bond market risks

• Japan, China and global demand dynamics

• Geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metals

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:37) – Gold’s Best Year Since 1979

• (01:46) – Gold Price Targets for 2026

• (02:39) – Can Gold Hit $5,000? Technical Analysis

• (03:08) – Gold Futures Positioning: Is the Market Overcrowded?

• (04:10) – Gold ETFs, Open Interest and Investor Flows

• (04:58) – Silver’s Breakout Year: The Forgotten Outperformer

• (07:40) – Silver Price Targets: How High Can It Go?

• (08:14) – Why Central Banks Still Matter for Gold

• (10:03) – Bank of Japan Rate Hikes and the Yen

• (11:44) – China’s Property Crisis and Economic Slowdown

• (15:06) – Geopolitics, Global Tensions and Gold

• (18:21) – Gold and Silver Outlook for 2026

• (18:51) – Final Thoughts and Year-End Wrap

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this week’s episode of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Global Head of Institutional Markets, Nicholas Frappell, dives deep into October’s extraordinary volatility across the precious metals space.

Recorded on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, Frappell unpacks the extreme tightness in the silver market, the drivers behind gold’s sharp drop and powerful rebound, and why China’s deteriorating economic indicators matter enormously for Australia. From negative gamma flows to fixed asset investment, this episode is loaded with actionable insights for traders, investors, and precious-metals followers.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Why silver lease rates briefly exploded to ~200%

• How metal flows to COMEX, New York ETFs, and India helped drain London's lending pool

• The return of metal to London vaults—53 million oz, the biggest inflow since 2016

• Whether December Fed rate cuts are still likely

• Gold’s medium- and short-term upside and downside price targets

• ETF flows and what limited data we have on positioning

• China’s rare –12.2% drop in fixed-asset investment, persistent deflation risks, and slow-motion property crisis

• Why China’s troubles matter directly for Australia’s economy

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction

• (00:32) – Recap of a busy conference schedule

• (01:14) – Gold goes parabolic… then drops ~US$420: what happened?

• (02:24) – Listener question: What caused October’s extreme tightness in silver?

• (04:56) – Turning back to gold: analysing the late-October rally

• (05:53) – Key support levels: Ichimoku, Fibonacci & volatility drivers

• (06:24) – Gold & silver targets: medium- and short-term outlook

• (07:54) – Positioning: what we can infer without COT data

• (09:15) – ETF flows in gold & silver

• (09:48) – China update: investment collapse, deflation & property sector slump

• (12:34) – Why China’s malaise matters for Australia

• (13:08) – Final thoughts: volatility, US dollar direction & Fed uncertainty

• (14:00) – When Frappell will (hopefully!) return to the mic

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks gold’s explosive surge through US $4,000/oz — a milestone that’s reshaping market sentiment and investor positioning around the world.

Recorded on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, this special short-form episode explores the macro and technical forces behind gold’s breakout and what traders should watch for next.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Why the US$4,000 mark is a psychological and technical milestone for gold investors
• The macro drivers behind the rally — from fiscal dominance and rising debt pressures to shifting Fed policy
• The impact of the US government shutdown on positioning data and market sentimentWhat to expect when Chinese markets reopen after the holidays
• Point & Figure targets pointing toward near-term resistance at US$4,073–4,172
• Ichimoku Cloud analysis and distant support levels near US$3,671 and US$3,576
• How round-number psychology and short-term volatility could shape the next phase of gold’s run

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction
• (00:33) – Gold marches through US$4,000
• (01:22) – The macro backdrop
• (03:38) – Positioning & ETF inflows amid the US government shutdown
• (05:38) – Technical outlook: Short-term risks and what to watch as China reopens
• (06:42) – Point & Figure analysis
• (07:32) – Ichimoku Cloud weekly big picture
• (08:27) – Summary and what’s ahead at IMARC 2025

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this episode, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery explains why Gold has surged to a historic US $3,759, and the momentum shows no sign of slowing.

📆 Recorded on Tuesday 23rd September 2025, this episode explores:

• Why weakness in the US dollar and shifting Federal Reserve policy are fuelling the rally

• Key price targets—including short-term resistance around US $3,800 and medium-term potential near US $4,000

• The surge in ETF inflows and investor rotation out of equities

• Geopolitical flashpoints and economic signals from China that could keep gold in demand

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Dollar Index (DXY) weakness and what past declines suggest for a possible rebound.

• September’s 25-bp cut and why the market’s hopes for deeper, faster easing may be misplaced.

• Inflation break-even rates and why the Fed’s own projections challenge the “rapid cuts” narrative.

• Rotation out of US equities and into gold as a hedge.

• Technical targets: short-term and medium-term

• Key support zones

• Escalating tensions—Russian jets, uncertain US leadership—and their impact on safe-haven demand.

• China’s slowing fixed-asset investment and soft consumption shaping global trade flows.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction

• (00:55) – Moves behind the gold rally

• (04:55) – Managed money positioning

• (08:38) – Gold price targets

• (11:20) – Is the US dollar losing its grip?

• (13:07) – Geopolitics & macro drivers

• (14:08) – Key takeaways

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

—---------------

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks gold’s historic rally and what could lie ahead.

📆 Recorded on Tuesday 9th September 2025, this episode explores:

• The drivers pushing gold to fresh record highs.

• The role of weak US labour data and Fed policy expectations.

• Why ETF and Managed Money positioning matter right now.

• The potential scenarios that could actually stop this rally.

• Price targets including the much-discussed 3860 level.

• How the US dollar is influencing precious metals markets.

Whether you’re a trader, investor, or simply fascinated by gold, this episode provides deep insights into positioning, sentiment, and what the next 14 days may bring.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• US labour market weakness and Fed rate cut expectations.

• ETF inflows vs Managed Money longs.

• Central bank gold buying and its impact on demand.

• Scenarios that could trigger a gold pullback.

• Near- and medium-term price targets.

• The broader macro backdrop: dollar, tariffs, and risk assets.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction

• (00:44) – What’s driving gold higher right now

• (04:12) – Question from listener: “Could anything stop this rally?”

• (08:19) – ETF flows vs Managed Money positioning

• (10:16) – Price targets: short-term, medium-term, and $3860

• (11:34) – Medium-term price target explained

• (12:22) – The role of the US dollar and Fed policy

• (15:15) – Key takeaways and closing thoughts

• (17:00) – Outro

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

—---------------

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, discusses the key drivers for gold prices over the past few weeks, including geopolitical uncertainty and the impact of tariffs on the US economy.

📆 Recorded on Tuesday 26th August 2025, this episode explores:

• Insights into current managed money and ETF positioning in the gold market.
• Frappell's technical analysis of gold, including short-term and longer-term price targets using the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
• A deep dive into the current state of the US Dollar and how recent events regarding the Federal Reserve's independence are impacting it and gold.
• A look at the Chinese market, including the struggling property sector and the disconnect between economic performance and stock market rallies.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• How Chinese property prices continue their downward glide.
• What the Taylor rule suggests about interest rates.
• How the Fed's independence is being challenged and why that's potentially positive for gold.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction
• (02:29) – Driving factors for gold prices
• (04:40) – Tariffs and gold
• (5:26) – How Powell’s Jackson Hole speech impacts gold
• (10:00) – Managed money and ETF positioning
• (11:04) – Gold price targets
• (14:13) – What's happening with the US Dollar?
• (16:19) – Where the Fed fund's rate 'should' be
• (18:28) – A look at the Chinese market
• (21:33) – Where should you be watching when it comes to gold?

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

• —---------------

In the 70th episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, analyses the factors driving gold's performance, including the impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill" on US debt and inflationary pressures.

Frappell also examines how re-emergent tariffs are affecting the physical gold market, and what current managed money and ETF positioning reveals about investor sentiment.

📆 Recorded on Tuesday 15th July 2025, this episode explores:

• The effect of US debt and news flow on gold prices.
• The impact of tariffs on global trade, growth, and the physical gold market.
• An in-depth look at gold inventory holdings in London and COMEX depositories.
• Analysis of current managed money and ETF positioning in the gold market.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (0:00) – Introduction
• (0:56) – Driving factors for gold prices
• (3:58) – The physical gold market and re-emergent tariffs
• (9:27) – Managed money and ETF positioning
• (11:34) – Gold price targets
• (14:58) – Is the US Dollar weak or strong?
• (16:55) – How weak Chinese demand will impact us
• (19:28) – Key takeaways

🎧Special Offer for Pod of Gold Listeners

ABC Bullion Precious Metals Forum 2025 presents, Gold and The New World Order.

Bringing together global leaders in the precious metals industry to share insights on the current landscape and future opportunities.

With ABC Bullion's General Manager, Jordan Eliseo, as the Master of Ceremonies for the evening, there's also a great line-up of speakers set to include:

• Jim Rickards: Investment banker, lawyer, economist, New York Times best-selling author and globally renowned precious metal expert
• Nicholas Frappell: Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery
• Wayne Bramwell: CEO at Westgold Resources (ASX:WGC)

Pod of Gold listeners can get a 20% discount on tickets by using the code PODOFGOLD at checkout.

Click here for details.

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, analyses the recent geopolitical events in the Middle East, their impact on gold and crude oil markets, and the current state of physical gold demand in Asia-Pacific.

Frappell also examines current gold positioning, short and medium-term price targets, and key factors influencing the US dollar and debt landscape.

📆 Recorded on Monday 30th June 2025, this episode explores:

• Global dynamics shaping the gold market

• Gold and oil price rally after Iran strike

• Current managed money gold positioning

• Short and medium-term gold price targets

• Key factors influencing the US dollar and debt landscape.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction

• (00:33) – Special offer for Pod of Gold listeners

• (01:16) – Recent market activity

• (02:05) – Discussion on Iran-centric events and gold/crude rally

• (05:04) – Impact on physical gold demand in Asia-Pacific

• (06:02) – Managed money positioning in gold

• (07:58) – Short and medium-term gold price targets

• (10:12) – Analysis of the US Dollar and debt landscape

• (11:44) – Gold and The New World Order

• (12:02) – Summary and key takeaways

🎧Special Offer for Pod of Gold Listeners

ABC Bullion Precious Metals Forum 2025 presents, Gold and The New World Order.

Bringing together global leaders in the precious metals industry to share insights on the current landscape and future opportunities.

With ABC Bullion's General Manager, Jordan Eliseo, as the Master of Ceremonies for the evening, there's also a great line-up of speakers set to include:

• Jim Rickards: Investment banker, lawyer, economist, New York Times best-selling author and globally renowned precious metal expert

• Nicholas Frappell: Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery

• Wayne Bramwell: CEO at Westgold Resources (ASX:WGC)

Pod of Gold listeners can get a 20% discount on tickets by using the code PODOFGOLD at checkout.

Click here for details.

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit:⁠ https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast⁠

• Follow Nick Frappell:⁠ https://twitter.com/nick_frappell⁠

• Follow Shae Russell:⁠ https://twitter.com/shaearussell⁠