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Gold Breaks $4,000: What’s Driving the Rally and What Comes Next

Gold Breaks $4,000: What’s Driving the Rally and What Comes Next

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In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks gold’s explosive surge through US $4,000/oz — a milestone that’s reshaping market sentiment and investor positioning around the world.

Recorded on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, this special short-form episode explores the macro and technical forces behind gold’s breakout and what traders should watch for next.

📈 Frappell also examines:

  • Why the US$4,000 mark is a psychological and technical milestone for gold investors
  • The macro drivers behind the rally — from fiscal dominance and rising debt pressures to shifting Fed policy
  • The impact of the US government shutdown on positioning data and market sentimentWhat to expect when Chinese markets reopen after the holidays
  • Point & Figure targets pointing toward near-term resistance at US$4,073–4,172
  • Ichimoku Cloud analysis and distant support levels near US$3,671 and US$3,576
  • How round-number psychology and short-term volatility could shape the next phase of gold’s run

🕒 Timestamps:

  • (00:00) – Introduction
  • (00:33) – Gold marches through US$4,000
  • (01:22) – The macro backdrop
  • (03:38) – Positioning & ETF inflows amid the US government shutdown
  • (05:38) – Technical outlook: Short-term risks and what to watch as China reopens
  • (06:42) – Point & Figure analysis
  • (07:32) – Ichimoku Cloud weekly big picture
  • (08:27) – Summary and what’s ahead at IMARC 2025


🔗 More Resources:

  • Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
  • Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
  • Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell
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