In this special location episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets from ABC Refinery, records on the final day of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle. Following his keynote address, Nick unpacks the "uncertainty bingo card," explaining why traditional indicators like gold and the US dollar are defying historical correlations.

This episode dives deep into the technical and macroeconomic cross-currents defining 2026, including the shift from "de-dollarisation" to "de-fiatisation", the unprecedented retail silver frenzy in China, and why Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Fed might actually mean more expensive money. Nick also provides exclusive technical updates using Ichimoku Cloud analysis and provides the probabilities for gold and silver’s next major moves.

📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th February 2026 at the RIU Explorers conference, this episode explores:

• Market dynamics, price targets, and the role of managed money in these movements

• The implications of Fed policy and inflation on precious metals.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction: From the floor of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle.

• (01:17) – The Uncertainty Proxy: Why measles outbreaks and the Fed narrative track with gold.

• (03:00) – The Warsh Factor: Quantitative tightening and the "belly of the curve."

• (05:51) – Breaking Correlations: Analysing gold’s rally alongside high real rates and a strong dollar.

• (08:16) – De-fiatisation vs. De-dollarisation: Why China is still accumulating greenbacks.

• (12:38) – Silver’s Forgotten Story: Comex inventory shifts and Chinese retail premiums.

• (16:55) – Managed Money Data: Identifying "Fast Money" trends in gold and silver.

• (21:17) – Technical Analysis: Ichimoku Cloud support levels and Point & Figure upside targets.

• (24:00) – Option Market Probabilities: Is a $140 silver price actually on the cards?

• (28:09) – The "Big Macro" Indicator: Monitoring the US Net International Investment Position.

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, discusses gold recently shattering the USD$5,000 barrier before experiencing an "eye-watering" $400 correction in mere minutes, the team explores the technical and macroeconomic forces behind the chaos.

The discussion provides deep technical insight into negative gamma on dealer option books, the impact of President Trump’s new Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, and why silver recently behaved like an "enraged rattlesnake".

📆 Recorded on Monday 2nd February 2026, this episode explores:

• Market dynamics, price targets, and the role of managed money in these movements

• The implications of Fed policy and inflation on precious metals.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction and Market Overview

• (00:34) – Gold Market Dynamics

• (03:44) – Managed Money Positioning

• (06:31) – Price Targets and Predictions

• (09:03) – Silver Market Insights

• (11:31) – Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

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In this final episode of The Pod of Gold for 2025, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks one of the most extraordinary years in precious metals history.

Gold has delivered its second-best annual performance since free trading began in 1979, with silver close behind. This podcast explores what drove this year’s rally and whether the bull market still has room to run into 2026. Frappell outlines his medium- and long-term price targets for both metals, breaks down positioning data across futures, ETFs and managed money, and explains why neither market appears overstretched despite the sharp gains.

The discussion then turns to the global macro backdrop shaping precious metals markets: the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward lower rates, ongoing divergence in central bank policy, rising bond yields, and the implications for the US dollar. Nicholas also examines developments in Japan, China’s prolonged property downturn, and the growing geopolitical risks tied to the Russia–Ukraine war and energy markets.

With politics, geopolitics and monetary policy increasingly intertwined, this episode provides a comprehensive wrap-up of 2025 and a clear framework for understanding the forces likely to influence gold and silver in the year ahead.

Listen now to close out the year and prepare for what lies ahead in 2026.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Gold and silver’s historic performance in 2025

• Price targets and technical outlook for 2026

• Futures, ETF and managed money positioning

• Fed rate cuts, US dollar weakness and bond market risks

• Japan, China and global demand dynamics

• Geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metals

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:37) – Gold’s Best Year Since 1979

• (01:46) – Gold Price Targets for 2026

• (02:39) – Can Gold Hit $5,000? Technical Analysis

• (03:08) – Gold Futures Positioning: Is the Market Overcrowded?

• (04:10) – Gold ETFs, Open Interest and Investor Flows

• (04:58) – Silver’s Breakout Year: The Forgotten Outperformer

• (07:40) – Silver Price Targets: How High Can It Go?

• (08:14) – Why Central Banks Still Matter for Gold

• (10:03) – Bank of Japan Rate Hikes and the Yen

• (11:44) – China’s Property Crisis and Economic Slowdown

• (15:06) – Geopolitics, Global Tensions and Gold

• (18:21) – Gold and Silver Outlook for 2026

• (18:51) – Final Thoughts and Year-End Wrap

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell