In this final episode of The Pod of Gold for 2025, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks one of the most extraordinary years in precious metals history.

Gold has delivered its second-best annual performance since free trading began in 1979, with silver close behind. This podcast explores what drove this year’s rally and whether the bull market still has room to run into 2026. Frappell outlines his medium- and long-term price targets for both metals, breaks down positioning data across futures, ETFs and managed money, and explains why neither market appears overstretched despite the sharp gains.

The discussion then turns to the global macro backdrop shaping precious metals markets: the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward lower rates, ongoing divergence in central bank policy, rising bond yields, and the implications for the US dollar. Nicholas also examines developments in Japan, China’s prolonged property downturn, and the growing geopolitical risks tied to the Russia–Ukraine war and energy markets.

With politics, geopolitics and monetary policy increasingly intertwined, this episode provides a comprehensive wrap-up of 2025 and a clear framework for understanding the forces likely to influence gold and silver in the year ahead.

Listen now to close out the year and prepare for what lies ahead in 2026.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Gold and silver’s historic performance in 2025

• Price targets and technical outlook for 2026

• Futures, ETF and managed money positioning

• Fed rate cuts, US dollar weakness and bond market risks

• Japan, China and global demand dynamics

• Geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metals

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:37) – Gold’s Best Year Since 1979

• (01:46) – Gold Price Targets for 2026

• (02:39) – Can Gold Hit $5,000? Technical Analysis

• (03:08) – Gold Futures Positioning: Is the Market Overcrowded?

• (04:10) – Gold ETFs, Open Interest and Investor Flows

• (04:58) – Silver’s Breakout Year: The Forgotten Outperformer

• (07:40) – Silver Price Targets: How High Can It Go?

• (08:14) – Why Central Banks Still Matter for Gold

• (10:03) – Bank of Japan Rate Hikes and the Yen

• (11:44) – China’s Property Crisis and Economic Slowdown

• (15:06) – Geopolitics, Global Tensions and Gold

• (18:21) – Gold and Silver Outlook for 2026

• (18:51) – Final Thoughts and Year-End Wrap

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this week’s episode of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Global Head of Institutional Markets, Nicholas Frappell, dives deep into October’s extraordinary volatility across the precious metals space.

Recorded on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, Frappell unpacks the extreme tightness in the silver market, the drivers behind gold’s sharp drop and powerful rebound, and why China’s deteriorating economic indicators matter enormously for Australia. From negative gamma flows to fixed asset investment, this episode is loaded with actionable insights for traders, investors, and precious-metals followers.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Why silver lease rates briefly exploded to ~200%

• How metal flows to COMEX, New York ETFs, and India helped drain London's lending pool

• The return of metal to London vaults—53 million oz, the biggest inflow since 2016

• Whether December Fed rate cuts are still likely

• Gold’s medium- and short-term upside and downside price targets

• ETF flows and what limited data we have on positioning

• China’s rare –12.2% drop in fixed-asset investment, persistent deflation risks, and slow-motion property crisis

• Why China’s troubles matter directly for Australia’s economy

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction

• (00:32) – Recap of a busy conference schedule

• (01:14) – Gold goes parabolic… then drops ~US$420: what happened?

• (02:24) – Listener question: What caused October’s extreme tightness in silver?

• (04:56) – Turning back to gold: analysing the late-October rally

• (05:53) – Key support levels: Ichimoku, Fibonacci & volatility drivers

• (06:24) – Gold & silver targets: medium- and short-term outlook

• (07:54) – Positioning: what we can infer without COT data

• (09:15) – ETF flows in gold & silver

• (09:48) – China update: investment collapse, deflation & property sector slump

• (12:34) – Why China’s malaise matters for Australia

• (13:08) – Final thoughts: volatility, US dollar direction & Fed uncertainty

• (14:00) – When Frappell will (hopefully!) return to the mic

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks gold’s explosive surge through US $4,000/oz — a milestone that’s reshaping market sentiment and investor positioning around the world.

Recorded on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, this special short-form episode explores the macro and technical forces behind gold’s breakout and what traders should watch for next.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Why the US$4,000 mark is a psychological and technical milestone for gold investors
• The macro drivers behind the rally — from fiscal dominance and rising debt pressures to shifting Fed policy
• The impact of the US government shutdown on positioning data and market sentimentWhat to expect when Chinese markets reopen after the holidays
• Point & Figure targets pointing toward near-term resistance at US$4,073–4,172
• Ichimoku Cloud analysis and distant support levels near US$3,671 and US$3,576
• How round-number psychology and short-term volatility could shape the next phase of gold’s run

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction
• (00:33) – Gold marches through US$4,000
• (01:22) – The macro backdrop
• (03:38) – Positioning & ETF inflows amid the US government shutdown
• (05:38) – Technical outlook: Short-term risks and what to watch as China reopens
• (06:42) – Point & Figure analysis
• (07:32) – Ichimoku Cloud weekly big picture
• (08:27) – Summary and what’s ahead at IMARC 2025

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell