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This week’s episode explores the sluggish start to 2026, where a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP result meets a growing sense of sales fatigue. Nick and Kelvin break down why the movers are the key to the next price cycle and how the Reserve Bank might navigate the worst-case scenario of stagflation.

Is the New Zealand property market hitting a crescendo of sluggishness? Following a strong end to 2025, the first two months of 2026 have seen sales volumes dip by 7-8% year-on-year. In this episode, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on whether this is a temporary timing issue or the start of a more sustained slowdown.

We also dive into the Q4 GDP undershoot (0.2% vs. the RBNZ's 0.5% forecast) and what it means for interest rate stability. Plus, we address direct listener feedback on the trap of using averages and why the movers in the market are currently paying a 2% premium over first-home buyers.

This week, Nick and Kelvin discuss:

• The sales slump: Why January and February were softer than expected and why our 100k annual sales forecast might be dialed back.
• The mover premium: New research showing that second-and-third-home buyers are paying 2% more relative to CV than first-home buyers.
• GDP reality check: Why the Q4 undershoot provides a silver lining for those hoping for lower-for-longer interest rates.
• The Iran ripple effect: Exploring second-round inflation and why the Reserve Bank is in its absolute worst-case position.
• Rental market weakness: Why the stock measure of rents is at its lowest annual change in nearly 20 years.
• Averages vs. case studies: A response to listener Carl Horne on the limitations of median data.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Q4 Affordability Report is out, and the data shows a significant shift in the New Zealand housing market. After four years of adjustments, key measures of affordability are returning to long-term averages—but as geopolitical tensions rise, will this recovery be cut short?

This week, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on how to interpret these "normalising" figures and what the latest migration turnaround means for rental demand. They also tackle the uncomfortable economic ripple effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict and what it might mean for the Reserve Bank’s next move.

In this episode, Nick and Kelvin discuss:

• The Affordability Reset: Why mortgage payments as a proportion of income have finally hit the 20-year average.
  
  
• Regional Winners: Auckland and Wellington’s surprising status as "below average" for debt servicing costs.
  
  
• The Rental Challenge: Why renters are still facing a "28% burden" and how new migration arrivals could add pressure.
  
  
• Migration Momentum: Analysing the net gain of 23,000 and the easing of departures.
  
  
• Geopolitical Inflation vs. Growth: The "petrol tax" on households and the risk of a medium-term recessionary impact.
  
  
• RBNZ Watch: Is a November OCR hike now a "lock," and could it move even sooner?

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

A surprise 0.2% rise in national property values meets a shifting global landscape. Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse how geopolitical tensions could force the Reserve Bank's hand.

In this episode, the research desk tackles the unexpected 0.2% rise in the February Home Value Index. While an upturn always starts somewhere, the significance of this month is its broad-based nature - with every main centre, including Auckland, seeing growth simultaneously for the first time in nearly a year.

However, a new global uncertainty has arrived. We break down the domestic fallout from the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, including the immediate petrol price shock and how it acts as a direct tax on Kiwi households. We also discuss the flight to safety in financial markets and what a falling NZ dollar means for our inflation outlook.

This week, we discuss:

• The February Index Surprise: Why growth in Auckland, Christchurch, and Dunedin suggests a new market phase.
• The Geopolitical Inflation Risk: How shipping costs and oil prices could impact the next OCR decision.
• The Exchange Rate Factor: Understanding the flight to safety and its impact on importing costs.
• Market Resilience: Analysing the 15% year-on-year rise in dwelling consents and the labour market trough.
• Affordability Preview: Key themes ahead of this Wednesday’s full Q4 report release.

Links mentioned in the show:

• February HVI
• Housing Affordability Report (Available Wednesday 11 March 2026)
• Kelly Eckhold on Middle Eastern conflict

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.