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A surprise 0.2% rise in national property values meets a shifting global landscape. Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse how geopolitical tensions could force the Reserve Bank's hand.

In this episode, the research desk tackles the unexpected 0.2% rise in the February Home Value Index. While an upturn always starts somewhere, the significance of this month is its broad-based nature - with every main centre, including Auckland, seeing growth simultaneously for the first time in nearly a year.

However, a new global uncertainty has arrived. We break down the domestic fallout from the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, including the immediate petrol price shock and how it acts as a direct tax on Kiwi households. We also discuss the flight to safety in financial markets and what a falling NZ dollar means for our inflation outlook.

This week, we discuss:

• The February Index Surprise: Why growth in Auckland, Christchurch, and Dunedin suggests a new market phase.
• The Geopolitical Inflation Risk: How shipping costs and oil prices could impact the next OCR decision.
• The Exchange Rate Factor: Understanding the flight to safety and its impact on importing costs.
• Market Resilience: Analysing the 15% year-on-year rise in dwelling consents and the labour market trough.
• Affordability Preview: Key themes ahead of this Wednesday’s full Q4 report release.

Links mentioned in the show:

• February HVI
• Housing Affordability Report (Available Wednesday 11 March 2026)
• Kelly Eckhold on Middle Eastern conflict

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.