UK Economic Stagnation Analysis

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4 talks to Simon Nixon @Simon_Nixon discussed the UK's economic stagnation since 2008, highlighting the impact of financial sector reliance, austerity policies, and Brexit. They analysed Keir Starmer's recent EU trade deal, noting modest improvements but emphasising its limited impact on addressing broader economic challenges. Simon suggested that deeper EU integration could yield greater economic benefits, while Andrew questioned whether rejoining the EU would be politically feasible.

Businesses Navigate Political Party Challenges

Nick Cohen & Simon Nixon discuss the challenges businesses face in aligning with political parties, particularly the Conservative Party, due to its current opposition to policies beneficial for business, such as the Brexit deal and trade agreements with India. They noted that businesses may seek alternatives to advance their agendas, given the presence of multiple parties in the political landscape. Simon highlighted the economic impact of the recent National Insurance rise, which was implemented to fund social care but has been met with skepticism and uncertainty about its long-term effects on employment and inflation.

Economic Policy Challenges and Solutions

Simon and Nick discussed the challenges of economic policy, particularly the reliance on low tax rates and central banks to stimulate growth. They agreed that raising taxes is necessary to reduce debt and ease pressure on central banks, as seen in both the UK and US.

Economic Challenges in UK and US

The discussion focused on the economic challenges facing both the UK and the US, with Simon Nixon highlighting how Liz Truss's fiscal policies have left limited room for manoeuver before requiring tax increases or spending cuts. Nixon compared the US situation under Donald Trump, noting that while Trump's tax cuts were temporary, his administration is now pushing through a budget that would increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, primarily to prevent tax rates from rising.

Global Economic Challenges and Reforms

Simon discussed the global economic challenges facing various countries, including Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, emphasising that no country has a perfect solution. He highlighted the impact of technology, particularly AI, on employment and the need for bold administrative reforms to improve state management. Simon also touched on the Labour Party's sudden rise to power and the lack of comprehensive plans upon taking office, noting the difficulty of implementing significant reforms while in government.

Simon Nixon's Substack column Wealth of Nations is one of the best and most insightful reads on economics and finance. His latest column - Europe's Crippling Risk Aversion - is here.

Nick Cohen's regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is another must-read.

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Nick Cohen talks to Russia expert Ian Garner

Nick Cohen and Dr Ian Garner discussed the impact of Vladimir Putin on global affairs and the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Ian highlighting the strict government control, lack of free speech, and severe punishments for dissent in Russia. They also discussed the economic impact of the war, the rise of fascism in Russia, and the Russian government's propaganda tactics. The conversation ended with a discussion on the political landscape in Russia, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the cultural and historical factors that contribute to Russia's inclination towards war.

Putin's Impact on Global Affairs

Nick Cohen introduces the podcast "The Lowdown" and welcomes guest Ian Garner, an academic authority on Russia. They discuss the impact of Vladimir Putin on global affairs and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Ian explains that despite Russia suffering an estimated 900,000 casualties in the war, the country hasn't fallen apart due to strict government control, lack of free speech, and severe punishments for dissent.

Political Prisoners in Putin's Russia

Ian discussed the increasing number of political prisoners in Putin's Russia, surpassing the Soviet Union's post-Stalin era. He highlighted the return of old techniques like psychiatric institutions and show trials, and the lack of a fair legal system in Russia. Ian also touched on the militarization of Russian culture, both historically and under the Putin regime, and the government's strategy of bribing people to join the military.

Rise of Fascism in Russia

Ian and Nick discussed the rise of fascism in Russia, tracing its roots to the late Soviet era when dissident groups emerged, including neo-Nazi and nationalist movements. They noted the disappointment of many Russians with the experience of democracy in the 1990s, which led to the rise of a nationalist, irredentist, and revanchist bloc.

Russian Propaganda Tactics and Control

Ian discussed the Russian government's propaganda tactics, including creating multiple narratives to shape public opinion and reality. He noted that these tactics are effective, despite being crude, and that they allow the government to maintain control and manipulate public perception. Ian also compared the current situation to the aftermath of the Soviet-Afghan war, where similar tactics were used to control public opinion.

Dr Ian Garner @irgarner is professor of Russia, war, propaganda @ Pilecki Institute & author of Z Generation: Russia's Fascist Youth. His next book -co-authored - Russia and Modern Fascism is out August 5th.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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The Tories face extinction as a political force

In the meeting, Nick Cohen and Nick Tyrone, author, activist and political commentator, discussed the potential demise of the Conservative party in the UK. They highlighted the party's ideological confusion and complacency as major factors contributing to their decline. Nick suggested that the Conservative party might be losing its way intellectually and ideologically, and that they are complacent about their situation. They also discussed the rise of the radical right in the form of Nigel Farage's Reform party and the potential impact on the Conservative party. The conversation ended with a discussion on the need for the Conservative party to offer an alternative to the Reform party and the importance of having a strong leader to lead the party forward.

Tories' Leadership and Strategy Critique

The two Nicks discuss Kemi Badenoch's leadership and strategy for the Tories. Nick Tyrone criticised Kemi's performance, stating she was not good at politics and had a fatal flaw in her strategy. He argued that her focus on culture issues was the wrong approach, as the Tories needed to rebuild their image as competent and pro-business. Nick Tyreone also suggested that Kemi's strategy was the opposite of what the Tories needed to succeed.

Conservative Party's Potential Dissolution Discussed

Both Nicks discuss the potential for the Conservative party to dissolve into the Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, due to their shared right-wing ideologies. They argued that the Conservative party's failure to articulate a unique reason for its existence in the current political climate could lead to its demise.

Farage's Departure and Reform Party's Future

They then discuss the potential impact of Nigel Farage's departure on the Reform Party's momentum. They agreed that Farage's personality cult is crucial to the party's success, and his absence could lead to its collapse.

The Tories' grisly dilemma

Nick Tyrone says the Tory Party face a grisly dilemma if it decides it has blown its ill-deserved credentials for being the party of business and economic competence thanks to Brexit and Liz Truss. He explains, "If that's the case, just make, just do whatever you need to do with Farage. Make Farage the leader of the conservative party. Melt the conservative party into Reform all the conservative party and just become. Just make Reform the one like right wing vehicle in the country, because that's gonna be more electorally efficient if there's no reason to exist. And what's happening is they are being crushed on one end by the Lib Dems and crushed on the other end by Reform, and they don't appeal to either group. "

Nick Tyrone is an author, activist, policy advisor and commentator and keen observer of the Tory party whose Substack column as Neoliberal Centrist Dad - nick.tyrone.substack.com - is a must read for those of us desperate for the return of sanity to our national political discourse.

Nick Cohen's @NickCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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