In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $65K fair value and whether last week’s capitulation was the long-awaited fat pitch. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022, explain why the selloff has accelerated faster than past bears, and unpack what Mike means when he says spot markets are “tangled.” With 40% of supply held above $78K and heavy dip buying at $84K, they explore the risk of a relief rally into resistance and the potential for one more leg down toward the 200-week moving average. They close with details on TDR’s first deployment of the bear market, deep value targets, and how they’re scaling into positions while keeping dry powder ready.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:09 Market Sentiment Shifts

3:28 Comparing Past Cycles

6:13 First Purchase of the Bear Market

7:49 Forced Selling & Market Reactions

12:50 Analyzing Market Structure

17:29 Understanding New Market Psychology

21:52 TDR's Strategic Allocation

27:47 Updates on the Watch List

31:28 Triggers for Altcoin Deployments

32:49 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down what Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, could mean for crypto, and why a real regime shift might be back on the table. They unpack Warsh’s record as a Fed governor, his critique of QE and the swollen balance sheet, and the big question markets are not pricing: is the Fed Put still alive? Mike explains why he still views crypto as in a bear market, the onchain and cycle metrics he needs to see before going risk-on, and how a Nasdaq rollover tied to an AI unwind could drive the next leg lower. They close with fair value targets, downside scenarios, and what would finally flip Mike into buy mode.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:15 The Bloodbath in Crypto Prices

2:52 Analyzing the New Fed Chair

7:21 Warsh's Views on Inflation

10:19 Trump & Warsh's Alignment

12:55 The Fed Put: A New Perspective

18:05 Constraints on Warsh's Policies

20:59 The Uncertainty of the Fed's Influence

21:50 Crypto's Bear Market Outlook

23:32 Metrics for Bitcoin's Recovery

25:27 Long-Term Holders' Market Behavior

27:13 The State of Bitcoin Miners

29:35 NASDAQ & Tech Sector Trends

32:54 The AI Bubble and Its Implications

35:35 The Potential for Market Unwind

39:39 ISM Data and Economic Signals

40:45 Mike's Risk-On Strategy Insights

42:41 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin is underperforming gold, what the BTC/Gold ratio is signaling about the next bottom, and why this setup may be more bullish than it looks. They unpack China’s role in driving the gold trade, why Bitcoin still behaves like a risk-on asset, and how investor “envy” distorts cycle perception. Mike lays out realistic downside scenarios, key support levels to watch, and the onchain signals he needs to see before deploying capital.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:08 Bitcoin vs. Gold Ratio Analysis

8:19 Understanding Gold's Outperformance

13:12 China's Impact on Gold Demand

14:27 Bitcoin's Future as a Reserve Asset

16:27 Potential Bottom for Bitcoin Ratio

20:25 Market Sentiment & Investor Behavior

26:35 Onchain Metrics and Market Conditions

33:41 The Future of Real World Assets in Crypto

34:59 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan lay out Mike’s full portfolio construction framework for a crypto bear market. We walk through how he sizes Bitcoin as the anchor, how core and high-beta assets fit into the cycle, and why price matters more than narratives right now. Mike also shares fair value targets across nearly 30 assets, explains why most investors rush entries too early, and what signals he’s waiting for before going risk-on again.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:50 Market Overview & Conditions

4:03 Constructing a Portfolio

7:00 Importance of Bitcoin

10:41 Core Assets Explained

13:26 Long-Term Holds Strategy

14:06 Risk-On Assets Discussion

17:36 Price Targets for Each Sleeve

20:54 Core Asset Candidates

29:13 Long-Term Holds & Watchlist

33:13 Meme Coins and Market Cycles

36:41 Analyzing the Watchlist

40:30 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is pushing toward $100K, but is the move real or just a positioning unwind? Mike and Ryan break down the CPI surprise, real rates and breakevens, why global liquidity still looks like it’s rolling over, and what the onchain data says about true demand, from ETF flows to long term holder selling, open interest, and funding. Mike explains what would convince him this rally can reclaim $100K as support, and why he’s still staying patient and largely in cash.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

0:14 Next Stop: $100K Bitcoin?

1:10 Positive Price Action

4:54 Powell's Prosecution & Market Impact

6:08 Bitcoin's Moment?

9:14 Understanding Real Rates & CPI

12:19 Global Liquidity & Bitcoin

17:57 Onchain Data Insights

21:47 Market Demand Signals

26:14 Anticipating Market Reactions

32:15 Upcoming Assets on the Watchlist

35:44 Closing

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

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Today on The DeFi Report, we’re mapping the 2026 setup: shifting fiscal flows, tighter liquidity, and why rate cuts are not automatically bullish for crypto. Mike stays risk off (80 percent cash) while he watches for the signals that would force a pivot, falling real yields, a dovish Fed, and Bitcoin reclaiming key levels. We also break down where we are in the market cycle, why a counter rally could be a trap, and what Mike’s $65K fair value target implies for positioning this year.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:10 Setup for 2026

5:54 Macro & Liquidity Setup

8:46 2022 Comparison

11:40 U.S. Liquidity Cycle Insights

13:20 Bitcoin & Interest Rates

16:34 Labor Market Insights

18:49 Real Estate Trends

21:04 Midterm Year Implications

23:30 Asset Allocation Cycle

26:18 Crypto Cycle Analysis

29:38 Transition Phase in Crypto

34:23 Geopolitical X Factor

37:12 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

The Fed cut rates and announced $40B/month in T bill purchases. Is that the signal to buy back into crypto? Mike says no. In this episode, we explain why “QE light” is not real easing, the key indicators Mike needs before flipping risk on, and what Bitcoin’s onchain market structure suggests about where this cycle could go next.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Introduction to the DeFi Report

2:28 Current Market Positioning

9:25 Federal Reserve's Actions Explained

13:13 Economic Conditions & Predictions

18:35 Big Picture of Economic Strategy

23:17 Analyzing Bitcoin's Market Structure

29:57 Closing & Future Outlook

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.