In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $65K fair value and whether last week’s capitulation was the long-awaited fat pitch. They compare this cycle to 2018 and 2022, explain why the selloff has accelerated faster than past bears, and unpack what Mike means when he says spot markets are “tangled.” With 40% of supply held above $78K and heavy dip buying at $84K, they explore the risk of a relief rally into resistance and the potential for one more leg down toward the 200-week moving average. They close with details on TDR’s first deployment of the bear market, deep value targets, and how they’re scaling into positions while keeping dry powder ready.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

1:09 Market Sentiment Shifts

3:28 Comparing Past Cycles

6:13 First Purchase of the Bear Market

7:49 Forced Selling & Market Reactions

12:50 Analyzing Market Structure

17:29 Understanding New Market Psychology

21:52 TDR's Strategic Allocation

27:47 Updates on the Watch List

31:28 Triggers for Altcoin Deployments

32:49 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down what Trump’s pick for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, could mean for crypto, and why a real regime shift might be back on the table. They unpack Warsh’s record as a Fed governor, his critique of QE and the swollen balance sheet, and the big question markets are not pricing: is the Fed Put still alive? Mike explains why he still views crypto as in a bear market, the onchain and cycle metrics he needs to see before going risk-on, and how a Nasdaq rollover tied to an AI unwind could drive the next leg lower. They close with fair value targets, downside scenarios, and what would finally flip Mike into buy mode.

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📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE

https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:15 The Bloodbath in Crypto Prices

2:52 Analyzing the New Fed Chair

7:21 Warsh's Views on Inflation

10:19 Trump & Warsh's Alignment

12:55 The Fed Put: A New Perspective

18:05 Constraints on Warsh's Policies

20:59 The Uncertainty of the Fed's Influence

21:50 Crypto's Bear Market Outlook

23:32 Metrics for Bitcoin's Recovery

25:27 Long-Term Holders' Market Behavior

27:13 The State of Bitcoin Miners

29:35 NASDAQ & Tech Sector Trends

32:54 The AI Bubble and Its Implications

35:35 The Potential for Market Unwind

39:39 ISM Data and Economic Signals

40:45 Mike's Risk-On Strategy Insights

42:41 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

In this episode of The DeFi Report, Mike and Ryan break down why Bitcoin is underperforming gold, what the BTC/Gold ratio is signaling about the next bottom, and why this setup may be more bullish than it looks. They unpack China’s role in driving the gold trade, why Bitcoin still behaves like a risk-on asset, and how investor “envy” distorts cycle perception. Mike lays out realistic downside scenarios, key support levels to watch, and the onchain signals he needs to see before deploying capital.

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📣THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
https://www.youtube.com/@thedefireport

https://thedefireport.io/

https://x.com/the_defi_report

https://x.com/JustDeauIt

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro

2:08 Bitcoin vs. Gold Ratio Analysis

8:19 Understanding Gold's Outperformance

13:12 China's Impact on Gold Demand

14:27 Bitcoin's Future as a Reserve Asset

16:27 Potential Bottom for Bitcoin Ratio

20:25 Market Sentiment & Investor Behavior

26:35 Onchain Metrics and Market Conditions

33:41 The Future of Real World Assets in Crypto

34:59 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.