• Show: “What Will Move the Market” with host Prem on Friday, December twenty sixth, twenty twenty five, ahead of market open.

• Wall Street: US markets closed for Christmas after a record-setting session.

  • S&P 500 up 0.3% to a record close around six thousand nine hundred thirty two.

  • Dow Jones up 0.6% to about forty eight thousand seven hundred thirty one, also a record.

  • Nasdaq up 0.2% for a fifth straight day of gains in a classic Santa rally, though on very light holiday volume.

  • Strong US Q3 GDP growth of 4.3% boosted sentiment but led markets to scale back expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts.

• Indian ADRs overnight:

  • Infosys up 0.54%, HDFC Bank up 0.33%.

  • ICICI Bank down 0.40%, Reliance down 1.14%.

  • Signals profit-taking in energy and IT, while banking, especially HDFC Bank, remains relatively firm.

• Asia and Gift Nifty:

  • Nikkei up 0.84% and Hang Seng up 0.17% in holiday-thinned but positive trade.

  • Gift Nifty down about 0.23% near twenty six thousand one hundred eighteen, hinting at a slightly soft Indian open despite supportive regional sentiment.

  • Expect Nifty to consolidate between twenty six thousand and twenty six thousand two hundred as profit booking clashes with year-end buying.

• Global backdrop:

  • Ongoing uncertainty around US tariffs under Trump into twenty twenty six; markets hope for negotiated deals rather than full trade wars.

  • Dollar has weakened nearly 10% since January, modestly helping rupee-linked exporters.

  • Crude oil steady around sixty two dollars per barrel, with Venezuelan tensions but still manageable for India’s import bill.

• India domestic cues:

  • Parliament passes Insurance Bill allowing 100% FDI in insurance, a structural positive for insurers and distributors.

  • FIIs net sellers around one thousand seven hundred twenty one crore, while DIIs bought about two thousand three hundred eighty one crore, cushioning the market.

  • RBI injecting roughly two point nine trillion rupees of liquidity through bonds and OMOs, supportive for banks and NBFCs.

  • India VIX near nine point one nine, signalling very low volatility and some complacency.

• Technical setup:

  • Nifty immediate resistance at twenty six thousand two hundred to twenty six thousand two hundred fifty; a break above could target around twenty six thousand four hundred.

  • Key support at twenty six thousand and then around twenty five thousand nine hundred fifty; a break below would hint at weakness.

  • Bank Nifty consolidating near fifty nine thousand, with support around fifty eight thousand eight hundred and potential upside toward fifty nine thousand five hundred to sixty thousand if support holds.

• Commodities:

  • Crude stable near sixty two dollars per barrel.

  • Gold near four thousand four hundred eighty dollars and silver around seventy one point nine three dollars per ounce, both in uptrends on safe-haven demand; calls for caution for rupee investors on any sharp corrections.

• Day plan:

  • Final week of the year with thin liquidity and many institutions squared off; expect range-bound trade in Nifty.

  • Insurance theme is a medium-term positive, but sharp immediate moves may be limited.

  • Watch FII flows, IT stabilization in names like Infosys and TCS, and strength in metals and select cyclicals.

  • Maintain a mildly bullish bias above Nifty twenty six thousand, but trade with tight stop-losses and avoid chasing spikes.

Welcome to today’s “What will move the Market” show. I'm your host Prem. It’s Wednesday, December twenty-fourth, two thousand twenty-five, and here is everything you need to know as the markets open for today.

Starting with the Wall Street Overnight Recap, US markets delivered a strong performance yesterday, driven by a better-than-expected GDP report and optimism surrounding the Santa Claus rally. The S&P Five Hundred climbed to a fresh record high, adding thirty-one points to close at six thousand nine hundred ten. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced roughly eighty points to finish at forty-eight thousand four hundred forty-two, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained one hundred thirty-three points to end at twenty-three thousand five hundred sixty-two. The rally was broad-based, with major tech and AI stocks leading the charge, although trading volumes were lighter ahead of the holiday. Remember, US markets will close early today at one PM Eastern time for Christmas Eve.

Moving to Indian ADR Performance, INFY is down 3%, HDFC Bank is flat, ICICI 0.53% up and Reliance GDR -0.42%, suggesting a tepid market for India.

Shifting to Asian Markets and the Gift Nifty, the region is trading with a positive bias this morning. The Nikkei in Japan is trading firm around forty-three thousand two hundred fifty, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong is hovering near twenty-five thousand seven hundred seventy. The Shanghai Composite is holding steady above three thousand nine hundred twenty. Most importantly for us, the Gift Nifty is currently trading at twenty-six thousand two hundred thirty-nine, up by about thirty-six points, indicating a flat to positive start for the Indian market this morning.

In Key Global News and Geopolitics, sentiment is being aided by the robust US GDP data released yesterday, which has eased fears of an economic slowdown. However, keep an eye on crude oil volatility as tensions involving Venezuela and potential supply disruptions are back in the headlines.

Coming to Indian Market Headlines and Pre-Open Cues, domestic sentiment remains buoyant after Nifty closed above twenty-six thousand one hundred seventy yesterday. We are seeing sustained buying in the financial services sector, which is likely to continue today given the HDFC Bank ADR cue. The RBI has maintained a watchful stance on liquidity, but the overall credit growth numbers remain supportive.

Looking at Technical Levels and Trading Setups, the Nifty Fifty has immediate support at twenty-six thousand one hundred, with strong buying interest likely emerging around twenty-six thousand. On the upside, resistance is placed at twenty-six thousand three hundred; a sustain above this could trigger a fresh breakout toward twenty-six thousand five hundred. For Bank Nifty, the key support level to watch is fifty-seven thousand two hundred, with resistance near fifty-seven thousand eight hundred.

In the Commodity Market Summary, we are seeing some interesting moves. Brent crude oil is trading soft around sixty-two dollars per barrel, which is a net positive for the Indian economy. However, the big story is precious metals. Gold has hit a new record high, trading around three thousand forty-five dollars an ounce, while Silver is firm at thirty-four point three three dollars. These moves in bullion reflect some underlying safe-haven demand despite the equity rally.

Finally, for your Actionable Idea or Day Plan, the trend remains buy-on-dips, especially with the Gift Nifty indicating a steady start. The "Santa Claus Rally" theme is playing out globally, so staying with established leaders in banking and consumption seems prudent. Be cautious with IT stocks early on due to the ADR drag, but look for stability before entering. As always, manage your risk strictly as volumes may be lower due to the holiday season.

Day’s market performance summary​

• Sensex slipped marginally, while Nifty fifty and BankNifty ended nearly flat after a choppy, rangebound session.

• Overall mood was cautious, with traders booking profits in heavyweights ahead of key US GDP and PCE inflation data.

• Broader undertone stayed constructive as indices held above important support zones, keeping the medium-term uptrend intact.

• Rupee hovered near the eighty-nine and a half per dollar mark, with no major fresh shock, so currency moves had limited equity impact today.

Top gainers & losers​

• Coal India, Shriram Finance and select metal names led the upside, helped by continued strength in commodities and improving earnings visibility.

• Small and midcap counters like railway and infra-linked stocks saw strong buying interest, reflecting ongoing appetite for domestic growth stories.

• IT heavyweights such as Infosys and Tech Mahindra, along with a few private banks, slipped on profit-taking after recent gains.

• A midcap IT services name corrected sharply on fundraising-related news flow, highlighting stock-specific event risk in the segment.

Support & resistance recap​

• Nifty fifty respected key support around the twenty-six thousand zone, keeping the breakout structure intact.

• Upside hurdles remained in the twenty-six thousand two hundred plus band, which capped intraday rallies.

• BankNifty held above nearby support but struggled to convincingly clear resistance just below the sixty thousand mark.

Sector performance & leadership​

• Metals outperformed again, extending their multi-day rally on firm global prices and strong demand expectations.

• IT was the clear laggard as traders locked in profits and turned selective ahead of the upcoming earnings season.

• Banks and financials showed mixed action, with resilience in some leaders offset by selling in others.

Regulatory, policy & macro updates

• Recent RBI policy stance, with a supportive liquidity framework and growth-friendly signals, continued to underpin risk appetite.

• Earlier SEBI tightening of derivatives risk controls and position limits kept expiry-linked strategies more disciplined.

• Markets stayed alert to incoming global macro data that could shift expectations on foreign flows and rate trajectories.

Commodity market summary

• Gold and silver in the domestic market held near record or multi-year highs, supported by safe-haven demand and a softer dollar backdrop.

• MCX gold and silver prices in rupees remained elevated, reinforcing wealth-protection trades for investors.

• Crude oil stayed in a moderate range, with geopolitical risk premium partly offset by demand concerns.

Geopolitics & market impact

• Ongoing tensions in key shipping and energy routes kept a floor under crude prices and added a layer of caution for global risk assets.

• Markets also tracked US data and Fed expectations, as any surprise on growth or inflation could sway global equity sentiment.

Technical outlook & forward view​

• As long as Nifty fifty holds above the twenty-six thousand support band, dips are likely to be bought with eyes on prior highs.

• BankNifty needs a sustained move above nearby resistance to unlock a further leg higher toward the psychological sixty thousand zone.

• Traders are watching for a possible breakout if global cues remain supportive, but also bracing for higher volatility around data releases.

Actionable takeaway​

• Focus remains on metals and select infrastructure names where trend strength and institutional interest are visible.

• Use intraday dips toward support levels in fundamentally strong leaders for staggered entries, while keeping tight stops.

• Stay cautious in IT and event-heavy midcaps, where profit-taking and news flow can trigger sharp, short-term swings.

• Wall Street extended its Santa Claus rally with a third straight day of gains, keeping major US indices close to record highs.

• The S&P five hundred rose about zero point six percent, the Nasdaq gained roughly zero point five percent, and the Dow added close to zero point five percent in the latest session.

• US tech led the move, with Tesla up one point five six percent, Nvidia up one point four nine percent, Micron jumping four percent, and Oracle gaining three point three four percent.

• Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela boosted haven demand, driving gold to a record above four thousand four hundred twenty dollars an ounce and lifting silver to fresh highs near sixty-nine dollars.

• Crude oil stayed well supported on the back of these tensions, helping energy stocks join the risk-on move.

• Indian ADRs gave mixed cues: Infosys ADR fell about five percent, while HDFC Bank ADR rose one point one one percent, ICICI Bank ADR edged up zero point two three percent, and Reliance GDR climbed one point one five percent.

• This points to some profit-taking in IT even as Indian banking and energy names continue to attract global interest.

• Asian markets are broadly positive this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei up one point nine three percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng higher by zero point four three percent, and Shanghai’s Composite up zero point six nine percent in early trade.

• Gift Nifty is around twenty-six thousand two hundred thirty, signaling a modestly positive start versus the last Nifty fifty close near twenty-six thousand one hundred seventy-two.

• US–Venezuela tensions over oil and sanctions are supporting crude and precious metals, adding a geopolitical risk premium to global markets.

• For India, higher energy prices can help domestic oil and gas players but may eventually pressure inflation and margins if elevated levels persist.

• At home, mild foreign institutional selling has been offset by strong domestic institutional buying, helping Nifty consolidate above the key twenty-six thousand mark.

• Infosys has raised full-year revenue growth guidance to the two to three percent range in constant currency, which could stabilize IT sentiment over time despite current ADR weakness.

• The rupee is relatively steady in the high eighty-nine range against the US dollar, supported by flows and an active central bank.

• Technically, Nifty fifty has support near twenty-six thousand eighty-three with a broader floor around twenty-six thousand, while resistance stands near twenty-six thousand one hundred eighty-four, twenty-six thousand two hundred sixteen, and twenty-six thousand two hundred sixty-seven.

• Bank Nifty faces resistance around fifty-nine thousand three hundred fifty-nine to fifty-nine thousand four hundred ten, with key support at fifty-eight thousand seven hundred, suggesting quality financials may still see buying on dips.

• Crude oil near the high fifty-dollar range per barrel is up roughly two and a half percent, reflecting supply concerns tied to Venezuela.

• Gold and silver hover around record territory, driven more by geopolitical risk than by fresh inflation fears, an important nuance for equity positioning.

• Overall, the tone for today’s session is cautious optimism: year-end technical strength, firm global risk sentiment, and resilient domestic flows are supportive, but elevated commodities and IT volatility argue for prudence.

• Nifty looks capable of testing the upper resistance zone near twenty-six thousand two hundred sixty-seven if global cues stay constructive, though profit-taking around those levels is likely.

• Bank Nifty’s constructive setup and ongoing interest in financials and energy favor focusing on high-quality names in these sectors, while avoiding excessive leverage into thin year-end liquidity and geopolitical uncertainty.

• Indian equities staged a Santa rally, with Nifty fifty closing near twenty-six thousand one hundred seventy-two, Sensex around eighty-five thousand five hundred sixty-seven, and Bank Nifty near fifty-nine thousand three hundred four, while the rupee stayed broadly steady around eighty-nine point six versus the dollar.​

• Market breadth was strong as BSE Midcap rose about zero point eight percent and Smallcap gained around one point one percent, indicating broad participation from both retail and institutional investors ahead of year-end.​

• Trent, Shriram Finance, Wipro, Infosys, and Bharti Airtel led the gainers on stock-specific triggers such as consumer demand, a strategic MUFG partnership, and supportive global tech sentiment, while HDFC Life and select financial and consumer names saw mild profit-taking.

• Mid- and small-cap names like Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers, Devyani International, and Poonawalla Fincorp rallied sharply, and National Aluminium hit a fresh fifty-two week high alongside record aluminium futures on MCX, underscoring strength in industrial metals and railway-related themes.​

• Technically, Nifty fifty stayed above key moving averages and trendline supports with bullish RSI, stochastic RSI, and MACD signals, while Bank Nifty consolidated in a tight range above support, forming a Doji-type pattern that hints at indecision but with a positive bias.​

• Metals, IT, and capital goods sectors outperformed on strong global commodity trends and positive earnings expectations, whereas consumer durables lagged as traders booked profits after prior gains.

• The macro backdrop remained supportive, with the RBI signaling an extended pause on rate cuts, upgrading GDP growth to about seven point three percent, and cutting its CPI forecast to roughly two percent, alongside progress on an India–New Zealand free trade agreement aimed at diversifying trade and cushioning tariff risks.​

• Commodities saw fireworks as MCX gold hit a new record near one lakh thirty-five thousand six hundred ninety-eight rupees per ten grams and MCX silver a lifetime high around two lakh thirteen thousand four hundred twelve rupees per kilogram, even as crude oil held near sixty dollars a barrel amid mixed signals from Russia-Ukraine talks and evolving sanctions on Venezuelan oil.​

• For the near term, traders are watching Nifty support around twenty-five thousand nine hundred to twenty-five thousand eight hundred and resistance near twenty-six thousand one hundred to twenty-six thousand two hundred fifty, with Bank Nifty support around fifty-eight thousand nine hundred to fifty-eight thousand seven hundred and resistance toward fifty-nine thousand eight hundred to sixty thousand two hundred.​

• The key takeaway is to treat any near-term dips, especially around identified support zones, as potential buying opportunities in structurally strong themes like metals and quality mid caps, while maintaining strict risk management and avoiding chasing extended moves in thin year-end volumes.

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• Wall Street ended the week on a strong note Friday, led by a tech rally; the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, Nasdaq jumped 1.3%, and the Dow added 0.4%, with AI and semiconductor stocks like Nvidia, Palantir, and Micron driving gains.

• The week closed with positive momentum for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the Dow recorded a small weekly loss; the rally was supported by easing inflation concerns and a dovish Fed tone, boosting the “Santa Claus rally” hopes.

• Top gainers included travel and cruise stocks like Carnival (up nearly 10%) and healthcare names like Moderna, while some defensive sectors like utilities and telecoms, along with Nike, faced selling pressure.

• Indian ADRs showed modest overnight moves: ICICI Bank ADR around 29.92 (+0.77%), HDFC Bank ADR at 35.89, and Reliance ADR tracking broader sentiment, with no major fresh news.

• Infosys ADR was in the spotlight after an unusual 50% price surge triggered a trading halt on Friday; the company clarified there were no material events, pointing to a technical glitch rather than fundamental news.

• Asian markets are trading higher this morning: Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 0.77%, and China’s Shanghai Composite is up 0.5%, reflecting broad risk-on sentiment.

• The Gift Nifty futures are signaling a gap-up open for Indian markets, pointing to a positive start for Nifty 50 around the 26,170 level, indicating decent overnight buying interest.

• Geopolitically, the Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods have created headwinds for exports, especially in textiles and gems & jewellery, but November trade data shows a surprising 20% year-on-year export rebound, suggesting resilience.

• There is still uncertainty around a formal India–US trade deal, but the export recovery indicates Indian exporters are adapting by finding alternate markets, limiting the worst-case tariff impact.

• Domestically, the RBI recently cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% with a dovish stance, opening the door for more easing if growth or inflation data weakens further.

• FII flows have been cautiously positive, with net buying of around ₹600 crore on December 18, while DIIs remain strong buyers, showing domestic confidence in the market.

• Key domestic watchpoints include RBI commentary, FII positioning ahead of year-end, and any impact from new petroleum rules that could benefit infrastructure and energy stocks.

• There are no major IPOs launching today, but traders should keep an eye on any SEBI or exchange-level developments, especially around FnO and derivatives trading norms.

• Technically, Nifty 50 is in a consolidation phase between 26,200 (resistance) and 25,700 (support), with immediate resistance near 26,050–26,100 and first support at 25,800–25,850.

• A confirmed breakout above 26,100 could open the path toward 26,300–26,325, while a breakdown below 25,800 may test the key 25,700 level.

• Bank Nifty is at 59,069 with resistance at 59,700–60,000 and support at 58,700 and the 50-day moving average near 58,470, making it a key gauge for banking sector strength.

• Crude oil is trading around 60 dollars per barrel, with global supply relatively ample and prices holding in a 55–58 dollar range, keeping inflation and input cost pressures in check.

• Gold is consolidating after a strong month, while silver has been the standout, surging past 67 dollars per ounce and hitting record highs near 67.45 dollars, driven by tight supply and strong investment demand.

• The day plan for traders: the positive Asian and futures cues suggest a gap-up open, but Nifty is still in consolidation, so avoid aggressive fresh longs until a clear breakout above 26,050.

• Focus on tactical intraday trades in financials and IT, using the 25,800–25,850 zone as a stop-loss area; if global markets hold strength, watch for a move toward 26,300.

• If Asian markets reverse or US data disappoints, Nifty could test 25,800–25,700, so position sizing and risk management are crucial, especially in the lighter December volumes.

In late 2025, the Indian financial markets are navigating a complex landscape defined by shifting monetary policies and significant regulatory reforms. While the Reserve Bank of India has implemented a repo rate cut to 5.25%, the SEBI has introduced new rules to simplify IPO documentation and lower mutual fund expenses. Specific companies like IndiGo and Eternal are facing operational and market challenges, leading to notable share price volatility. Despite these local pressures and the impact of US tariffs, India's trade deficit has narrowed, aided by resilient export demand. Overall, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic as investors react to cooling global inflation and evolving corporate fundamentals.

Here is the summary of today's market wrap-up:

📅 Market Snapshot: Friday, December 19, 2025

• Trend Reversal: Indian markets snapped a four-day losing streak, ending the week on a strong positive note.

• Benchmark Indices:

  • Nifty50: Closed at 25,966 (+0.58%), successfully defending the 25,900 support zone.

  • Sensex: Gained over 400 points to settle at 84,929.

  • Bank Nifty: Ended at 59,069 (+0.27%), showing mild bullishness but lacking a decisive breakout.

• Currency Check: The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthened against the US Dollar, closing at 89.88, pulling back from the psychological 90-mark.

🚀 Top Movers & Stock Specific Action

• Star Performer: Shriram Finance surged 4%+ following board approval for a massive ₹40,000 crore investment from MUFG Bank.

• Mid-Cap Buzz: Ola Electric hit the 10% Upper Circuit after news confirmed the founder monetized a stake to fully repay promoter-level loans, removing a key stock overhang.

• Laggards: HCL Tech (-1.2%) and Hindalco saw minor profit booking.

📊 Sectoral & Broad Market Trends

• Outperformance: Broader markets stole the show; Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices rallied over 1% each.

• Leaders: Financial Services and Auto sectors drove the day's gains.

• Laggards: The IT sector remained weak, underperforming despite positive global cues.

🏛️ Regulatory & Policy Updates

• Historic Bill: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman introduced the Securities Market Code Bill, 2025 in Parliament.

  • Impact: Proposes merging the SEBI Act, SCRA, and Depositories Act into a single unified framework to simplify compliance and boost ease of doing business.

🪙 Commodities & Global Cues

• Gold (MCX): Cooled off to trade around ₹1,33,850 per 10g as risk appetite returned to equities.

• Silver (MCX): Held firm at ₹2,03,750 per kg.

• Global Sentiment: Softening US inflation data has reignited hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts, fueling risk-on sentiment in emerging markets.

📈 Technical Outlook & Strategy

• Nifty Setup: Formed a bullish candle on daily charts.

  • Resistance: 26,020 (Key breakout level for all-time highs).

  • Support: 25,800.

• Bank Nifty Setup: Needs to cross 59,200 to regain momentum; currently range-bound.

• Actionable Insight: Momentum has shifted to bulls. Watch for a Nifty breakout above 26,000 early next week; Realty and NBFCs offer promising risk-reward setups.