Santa's Rally Hits Asia—Can India Catch Up?
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Wall Street ended the week on a strong note Friday, led by a tech rally; the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, Nasdaq jumped 1.3%, and the Dow added 0.4%, with AI and semiconductor stocks like Nvidia, Palantir, and Micron driving gains.
The week closed with positive momentum for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the Dow recorded a small weekly loss; the rally was supported by easing inflation concerns and a dovish Fed tone, boosting the “Santa Claus rally” hopes.
Top gainers included travel and cruise stocks like Carnival (up nearly 10%) and healthcare names like Moderna, while some defensive sectors like utilities and telecoms, along with Nike, faced selling pressure.
Indian ADRs showed modest overnight moves: ICICI Bank ADR around 29.92 (+0.77%), HDFC Bank ADR at 35.89, and Reliance ADR tracking broader sentiment, with no major fresh news.
Infosys ADR was in the spotlight after an unusual 50% price surge triggered a trading halt on Friday; the company clarified there were no material events, pointing to a technical glitch rather than fundamental news.
Asian markets are trading higher this morning: Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 0.77%, and China’s Shanghai Composite is up 0.5%, reflecting broad risk-on sentiment.
The Gift Nifty futures are signaling a gap-up open for Indian markets, pointing to a positive start for Nifty 50 around the 26,170 level, indicating decent overnight buying interest.
Geopolitically, the Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods have created headwinds for exports, especially in textiles and gems & jewellery, but November trade data shows a surprising 20% year-on-year export rebound, suggesting resilience.
There is still uncertainty around a formal India–US trade deal, but the export recovery indicates Indian exporters are adapting by finding alternate markets, limiting the worst-case tariff impact.
Domestically, the RBI recently cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% with a dovish stance, opening the door for more easing if growth or inflation data weakens further.
FII flows have been cautiously positive, with net buying of around ₹600 crore on December 18, while DIIs remain strong buyers, showing domestic confidence in the market.
Key domestic watchpoints include RBI commentary, FII positioning ahead of year-end, and any impact from new petroleum rules that could benefit infrastructure and energy stocks.
There are no major IPOs launching today, but traders should keep an eye on any SEBI or exchange-level developments, especially around FnO and derivatives trading norms.
Technically, Nifty 50 is in a consolidation phase between 26,200 (resistance) and 25,700 (support), with immediate resistance near 26,050–26,100 and first support at 25,800–25,850.
A confirmed breakout above 26,100 could open the path toward 26,300–26,325, while a breakdown below 25,800 may test the key 25,700 level.
Bank Nifty is at 59,069 with resistance at 59,700–60,000 and support at 58,700 and the 50-day moving average near 58,470, making it a key gauge for banking sector strength.
Crude oil is trading around 60 dollars per barrel, with global supply relatively ample and prices holding in a 55–58 dollar range, keeping inflation and input cost pressures in check.
Gold is consolidating after a strong month, while silver has been the standout, surging past 67 dollars per ounce and hitting record highs near 67.45 dollars, driven by tight supply and strong investment demand.
The day plan for traders: the positive Asian and futures cues suggest a gap-up open, but Nifty is still in consolidation, so avoid aggressive fresh longs until a clear breakout above 26,050.
Focus on tactical intraday trades in financials and IT, using the 25,800–25,850 zone as a stop-loss area; if global markets hold strength, watch for a move toward 26,300.
If Asian markets reverse or US data disappoints, Nifty could test 25,800–25,700, so position sizing and risk management are crucial, especially in the lighter December volumes.