• Show: “What Will Move the Market” with host Prem on Friday, December twenty sixth, twenty twenty five, ahead of market open.

• Wall Street: US markets closed for Christmas after a record-setting session.

  • S&P 500 up 0.3% to a record close around six thousand nine hundred thirty two.

  • Dow Jones up 0.6% to about forty eight thousand seven hundred thirty one, also a record.

  • Nasdaq up 0.2% for a fifth straight day of gains in a classic Santa rally, though on very light holiday volume.

  • Strong US Q3 GDP growth of 4.3% boosted sentiment but led markets to scale back expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts.

• Indian ADRs overnight:

  • Infosys up 0.54%, HDFC Bank up 0.33%.

  • ICICI Bank down 0.40%, Reliance down 1.14%.

  • Signals profit-taking in energy and IT, while banking, especially HDFC Bank, remains relatively firm.

• Asia and Gift Nifty:

  • Nikkei up 0.84% and Hang Seng up 0.17% in holiday-thinned but positive trade.

  • Gift Nifty down about 0.23% near twenty six thousand one hundred eighteen, hinting at a slightly soft Indian open despite supportive regional sentiment.

  • Expect Nifty to consolidate between twenty six thousand and twenty six thousand two hundred as profit booking clashes with year-end buying.

• Global backdrop:

  • Ongoing uncertainty around US tariffs under Trump into twenty twenty six; markets hope for negotiated deals rather than full trade wars.

  • Dollar has weakened nearly 10% since January, modestly helping rupee-linked exporters.

  • Crude oil steady around sixty two dollars per barrel, with Venezuelan tensions but still manageable for India’s import bill.

• India domestic cues:

  • Parliament passes Insurance Bill allowing 100% FDI in insurance, a structural positive for insurers and distributors.

  • FIIs net sellers around one thousand seven hundred twenty one crore, while DIIs bought about two thousand three hundred eighty one crore, cushioning the market.

  • RBI injecting roughly two point nine trillion rupees of liquidity through bonds and OMOs, supportive for banks and NBFCs.

  • India VIX near nine point one nine, signalling very low volatility and some complacency.

• Technical setup:

  • Nifty immediate resistance at twenty six thousand two hundred to twenty six thousand two hundred fifty; a break above could target around twenty six thousand four hundred.

  • Key support at twenty six thousand and then around twenty five thousand nine hundred fifty; a break below would hint at weakness.

  • Bank Nifty consolidating near fifty nine thousand, with support around fifty eight thousand eight hundred and potential upside toward fifty nine thousand five hundred to sixty thousand if support holds.

• Commodities:

  • Crude stable near sixty two dollars per barrel.

  • Gold near four thousand four hundred eighty dollars and silver around seventy one point nine three dollars per ounce, both in uptrends on safe-haven demand; calls for caution for rupee investors on any sharp corrections.

• Day plan:

  • Final week of the year with thin liquidity and many institutions squared off; expect range-bound trade in Nifty.

  • Insurance theme is a medium-term positive, but sharp immediate moves may be limited.

  • Watch FII flows, IT stabilization in names like Infosys and TCS, and strength in metals and select cyclicals.

  • Maintain a mildly bullish bias above Nifty twenty six thousand, but trade with tight stop-losses and avoid chasing spikes.

Welcome to today’s “What will move the Market” show. I'm your host Prem. It’s Wednesday, December twenty-fourth, two thousand twenty-five, and here is everything you need to know as the markets open for today.

Starting with the Wall Street Overnight Recap, US markets delivered a strong performance yesterday, driven by a better-than-expected GDP report and optimism surrounding the Santa Claus rally. The S&P Five Hundred climbed to a fresh record high, adding thirty-one points to close at six thousand nine hundred ten. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced roughly eighty points to finish at forty-eight thousand four hundred forty-two, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained one hundred thirty-three points to end at twenty-three thousand five hundred sixty-two. The rally was broad-based, with major tech and AI stocks leading the charge, although trading volumes were lighter ahead of the holiday. Remember, US markets will close early today at one PM Eastern time for Christmas Eve.

Moving to Indian ADR Performance, INFY is down 3%, HDFC Bank is flat, ICICI 0.53% up and Reliance GDR -0.42%, suggesting a tepid market for India.

Shifting to Asian Markets and the Gift Nifty, the region is trading with a positive bias this morning. The Nikkei in Japan is trading firm around forty-three thousand two hundred fifty, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong is hovering near twenty-five thousand seven hundred seventy. The Shanghai Composite is holding steady above three thousand nine hundred twenty. Most importantly for us, the Gift Nifty is currently trading at twenty-six thousand two hundred thirty-nine, up by about thirty-six points, indicating a flat to positive start for the Indian market this morning.

In Key Global News and Geopolitics, sentiment is being aided by the robust US GDP data released yesterday, which has eased fears of an economic slowdown. However, keep an eye on crude oil volatility as tensions involving Venezuela and potential supply disruptions are back in the headlines.

Coming to Indian Market Headlines and Pre-Open Cues, domestic sentiment remains buoyant after Nifty closed above twenty-six thousand one hundred seventy yesterday. We are seeing sustained buying in the financial services sector, which is likely to continue today given the HDFC Bank ADR cue. The RBI has maintained a watchful stance on liquidity, but the overall credit growth numbers remain supportive.

Looking at Technical Levels and Trading Setups, the Nifty Fifty has immediate support at twenty-six thousand one hundred, with strong buying interest likely emerging around twenty-six thousand. On the upside, resistance is placed at twenty-six thousand three hundred; a sustain above this could trigger a fresh breakout toward twenty-six thousand five hundred. For Bank Nifty, the key support level to watch is fifty-seven thousand two hundred, with resistance near fifty-seven thousand eight hundred.

In the Commodity Market Summary, we are seeing some interesting moves. Brent crude oil is trading soft around sixty-two dollars per barrel, which is a net positive for the Indian economy. However, the big story is precious metals. Gold has hit a new record high, trading around three thousand forty-five dollars an ounce, while Silver is firm at thirty-four point three three dollars. These moves in bullion reflect some underlying safe-haven demand despite the equity rally.

Finally, for your Actionable Idea or Day Plan, the trend remains buy-on-dips, especially with the Gift Nifty indicating a steady start. The "Santa Claus Rally" theme is playing out globally, so staying with established leaders in banking and consumption seems prudent. Be cautious with IT stocks early on due to the ADR drag, but look for stability before entering. As always, manage your risk strictly as volumes may be lower due to the holiday season.

Day’s market performance summary​

• Sensex slipped marginally, while Nifty fifty and BankNifty ended nearly flat after a choppy, rangebound session.

• Overall mood was cautious, with traders booking profits in heavyweights ahead of key US GDP and PCE inflation data.

• Broader undertone stayed constructive as indices held above important support zones, keeping the medium-term uptrend intact.

• Rupee hovered near the eighty-nine and a half per dollar mark, with no major fresh shock, so currency moves had limited equity impact today.

Top gainers & losers​

• Coal India, Shriram Finance and select metal names led the upside, helped by continued strength in commodities and improving earnings visibility.

• Small and midcap counters like railway and infra-linked stocks saw strong buying interest, reflecting ongoing appetite for domestic growth stories.

• IT heavyweights such as Infosys and Tech Mahindra, along with a few private banks, slipped on profit-taking after recent gains.

• A midcap IT services name corrected sharply on fundraising-related news flow, highlighting stock-specific event risk in the segment.

Support & resistance recap​

• Nifty fifty respected key support around the twenty-six thousand zone, keeping the breakout structure intact.

• Upside hurdles remained in the twenty-six thousand two hundred plus band, which capped intraday rallies.

• BankNifty held above nearby support but struggled to convincingly clear resistance just below the sixty thousand mark.

Sector performance & leadership​

• Metals outperformed again, extending their multi-day rally on firm global prices and strong demand expectations.

• IT was the clear laggard as traders locked in profits and turned selective ahead of the upcoming earnings season.

• Banks and financials showed mixed action, with resilience in some leaders offset by selling in others.

Regulatory, policy & macro updates

• Recent RBI policy stance, with a supportive liquidity framework and growth-friendly signals, continued to underpin risk appetite.

• Earlier SEBI tightening of derivatives risk controls and position limits kept expiry-linked strategies more disciplined.

• Markets stayed alert to incoming global macro data that could shift expectations on foreign flows and rate trajectories.

Commodity market summary

• Gold and silver in the domestic market held near record or multi-year highs, supported by safe-haven demand and a softer dollar backdrop.

• MCX gold and silver prices in rupees remained elevated, reinforcing wealth-protection trades for investors.

• Crude oil stayed in a moderate range, with geopolitical risk premium partly offset by demand concerns.

Geopolitics & market impact

• Ongoing tensions in key shipping and energy routes kept a floor under crude prices and added a layer of caution for global risk assets.

• Markets also tracked US data and Fed expectations, as any surprise on growth or inflation could sway global equity sentiment.

Technical outlook & forward view​

• As long as Nifty fifty holds above the twenty-six thousand support band, dips are likely to be bought with eyes on prior highs.

• BankNifty needs a sustained move above nearby resistance to unlock a further leg higher toward the psychological sixty thousand zone.

• Traders are watching for a possible breakout if global cues remain supportive, but also bracing for higher volatility around data releases.

Actionable takeaway​

• Focus remains on metals and select infrastructure names where trend strength and institutional interest are visible.

• Use intraday dips toward support levels in fundamentally strong leaders for staggered entries, while keeping tight stops.

• Stay cautious in IT and event-heavy midcaps, where profit-taking and news flow can trigger sharp, short-term swings.