In less than 1 hour... the most important number of 2026 drops. At 8:30 AM Eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the January CPI report. Will inflation finally break below 2.5%... confirming the soft landing? Or will we get another hot surprise?

Here's what most people don't know: 10 out of the last 11 January CPI reports have surprised to the UPSIDE. JPMorgan sees a 42% chance of a hot print. Barclays says there's meaningful upside risk.

Today's Show:

• The January Curse: Why January inflation always runs hot - the annual price reset phenomenon and residual seasonality
• What JPMorgan Is Seeing: 42.5% odds of a hotter print, but limited market reaction if it happens - the fear is priced in
• Inside The Fed's Head: A structurally dovish Fed more likely to save the labor market than fight inflation
• Powell's Swan Song: April could be his last meeting - 47% chance of a final rate cut
• What To Watch: Core services, shelter costs, tariff passthrough, car insurance and healthcare
• The Three Scenarios: Cool (face ripper rally), In-Line (yawn), Hot (contained damage)

Key Numbers:

• 2.5% — Consensus CPI forecast (lowest since May 2025)
• 10 out of 11 — January CPIs that surprised hot
• 42.5% — JPMorgan's odds of a hotter print
• 3.5-3.75% — Current Fed funds rate
• 60 bps — Rate cuts priced for 2026 (2-3 cuts)
• 50% — Odds of first cut in June
• 47% — Odds of cut at Powell's final April meeting

Key Insight:

POSITIONING matters more than PREDICTION. The market is already braced for bad news. A cool print could be the bigger surprise.

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• (00:00) - Intro
• (02:00) - Setting The Stage
• (05:00) - The January Curse
• (08:00) - What JPMorgan Is Seeing
• (10:30) - Inside The Fed's Head
• (13:00) - The Rate Cut Math
• (15:30) - What To Watch
• (18:00) - The Three Scenarios
• (21:00) - The Bigger Picture
• (23:00) - Outro

Sickening scenarios have now come within reach. That's Michael Burry — the Big Short guy who predicted 2008 — warning that Bitcoin could trigger a collapse where there's "no buyer." Meanwhile, Michael Saylor just said he'll keep buying Bitcoin "every quarter forever." Someone's about to be catastrophically wrong. $54 billion is on the line.

Today's Show:

• Burry's Death Spiral Thesis: The Big Short investor says Strategy faces an "existential crisis" if Bitcoin hits $60K. He warns tokenized metal futures could "collapse into a black hole with no buyers."
• Strategy's Position: 715,000 BTC at $76K average cost. Currently $9K underwater per coin. $12.4B net loss in Q4 2025. MNAV dipping below 1 — the "last resort" trigger.
• Saylor's Response: "If Bitcoin falls 90% for four years, we'll refinance. We'll roll it forward." He expects to buy "every quarter forever."
• Burry's Track Record: Predicted 2008 brilliantly — but since then? Wrong on Tesla (up 700%), wrong on AI (shorted NVDA), wrong on Bitcoin (called it "worse than tulips"). Underperformed S&P by 5-7% annually for a decade.
• What Market Makers Say: Wintermute says we're in a bear market but "not a structural blowup like FTX, Luna, or Three Arrows." Macro-driven, not fraud-driven.
• Whale Activity: 152,000 BTC accumulated by whales in 30 days while 580,000 retail traders got liquidated. Cathie Wood bought $72M during the crash.
• Saylor's 2026 Timeline: Base case $120-140K (60% probability). March: 20 millionth BTC mined. Q4: momentum builds.

Key Numbers:

• $54 billion — Strategy's Bitcoin position value
• 715,000 — Total BTC held by Strategy (3% of all Bitcoin)
• $76,000 — Strategy's average cost per BTC
• $12.4 billion — Strategy's Q4 2025 net loss
• 47% — Bitcoin's crash from October high of $126K
• 70% — Strategy stock decline from all-time high
• 152,000 — BTC accumulated by whales in 30 days

Sources:

• CNBC: Michael Saylor on Strategy's Bitcoin Position
• CNBC: Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000
• CoinDesk: Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings Are Unencumbered
• CryptoQuant: Whale Accumulation Data
• Strategy Investor Relations: Q4 2025 Earnings
• Coin Bureau: Strategy MNAV Analysis
• What Bitcoin Did Podcast: Michael Saylor Interview
• Wintermute Research: Crypto Bear Market Analysis
• ARK Invest: Cathie Wood's $72M Crypto Purchase

Practical Takeaways:

• Don't panic sell — every major BTC crash has been followed by new ATHs
• Don't over-leverage — margin calls are destroying traders right now
• Burry being famous doesn't make him right (terrible track record since 2008)
• Saylor being bullish doesn't make him right (massive personal exposure = bias)

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• (00:00) - Intro - Saylor vs Burry: $54B on the Line
• (01:21) - Burry's Death Spiral Thesis
• (04:34) - Strategy's Numbers: $715K BTC, $12B Loss
• (05:58) - MNAV Explained - The Danger Line
• (07:10) - Saylor's Response
• (09:10) - Burry's Track Record Since 2008
• (11:41) - Why Burry's Framework Fails
• (12:55) - What Market Makers Say (Wintermute)
• (14:07) - What Whales Are Doing
• (14:48) - Saylor's 2026 Timeline
• (16:38) - Who's Right?
• (18:41) - Practical Takeaways

Ray Dalio just issued one of the most chilling warnings about money I've ever heard: "There will be no privacy." He's not talking about social media or government surveillance—he's talking about your bank account, every transaction you make, and why central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are coming whether we like it or not.

Today's Show:

• Ray Dalio's CBDC Warning: Why the government will be able to see everything you buy and freeze your accounts with one click
• What Are CBDCs?: Central bank digital currencies explained in plain English
• The Privacy Problem: Why every transaction becomes traceable and controllable
• Stage 5 of Collapse: Where America sits in Dalio's model of civilizations rising and falling
• Civil War Risks: Why Dalio sees real signs of internal conflict today
• How to Protect Yourself: What Dalio says you should do with your money right now

Key Warnings from Dalio:

• CBDCs will eliminate financial privacy
• Government can freeze accounts instantly
• America heading toward "financial heart attack"
• Real signs of civil war today
• Stage 5 of collapse indicators visible now

Sources:

• Tucker Carlson: Ray Dalio Interview (Full Episode)
• Bridgewater Associates
• Ray Dalio's Principles
• Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio
• Bank for International Settlements: Central Bank Digital Currencies
• Federal Reserve: Digital Currency

Follow the Show:

Website: moneymen.fm

X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

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• (00:00) - Intro: Ray Dalio's Warning
• (01:29) - Who is Ray Dalio?
• (04:39) - What Are CBDCs?
• (08:19) - The Privacy Problem
• (12:09) - Government Control
• (15:49) - Stage 5 of Collapse
• (19:39) - Civil War Risks
• (22:29) - How to Protect Yourself

One AI announcement just crashed $1 trillion in software stocks. Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Cowork, and Wall Street is calling it "The Anthropic Effect." Today I break down what happened, why SaaS stocks are panicking, and what this means for your portfolio.

Today's Show:

• The Crash: Thomson Reuters -18%, Salesforce -25%, Intuit -31% - all triggered by one announcement
• Claude Opus 4.6: New AI benchmark king, beating GPT-5.2 by 144 Elo points
• Claude Cowork: The $20/month "SaaS killer" that's terrifying traditional software
• The Valuation: Anthropic's 350 billion dollar value (up from 18B in 2023)
• Super Bowl: Anthropic vs OpenAI ad war and who won

Key Numbers:

• $1 trillion wiped from software stocks in one week
• 144 Elo points ahead of GPT-5.2 on key benchmarks
• $350 billion Anthropic valuation (20x increase in 2 years)
• $20/month Claude Cowork vs $75-300/month traditional SaaS
• 95% win rate (38/40 tasks) in blind testing

Sources:

• Anthropic Blog: "Introducing Claude Opus 4.6" (Feb 5, 2026)
• CNBC: "Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.6 as AI moves toward a 'vibe working' era"
• The New Stack: "Anthropic's Opus 4.6 Is a Step Change for the Enterprise"
• DataCamp: "Claude Opus 4.6: Features, Benchmarks, Tests, and More"
• Trending Topics EU: "The Anthropic Effect: Fear of AI Agents Trigger Major SaaS Stock Sell-Off"
• Bloomberg: "Anthropic Plans Employee Tender Offer at $350 Billion Valuation"
• Business Insider: "Anthropic's ad skewering OpenAI was the big winner of the AI Super Bowl"

Follow the Show:

Website: moneymen.fm

X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

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• (00:00) - The Trillion Dollar Crash
• (02:42) - What Is Anthropic?
• (04:19) - Claude Opus 4.6: The New Benchmark King
• (08:05) - Claude Cowork: The SaaS Killer
• (10:48) - The Market Meltdown
• (12:57) - Why This Time Is Different
• (15:07) - The $350 Billion Valuation
• (16:45) - Super Bowl Ad War
• (18:23) - Winners and Losers

$50 BILLION DOLLARS. Gone. In a single trading session.

Yesterday, Novo Nordisk—the company behind Ozempic and Wegovy, the company that basically invented the weight loss drug revolution—watched 18% of its market value disappear in hours.

But here's what makes this story wild. After the crash, their new CEO got in front of investors and said: "People should expect that it goes down before it comes back up."

He told them it gets worse from here.

Today's Show:

• The Crash: $50B wiped out, 18% drop, guidance 10x worse than expected
• The Trump Factor: TrumpRx forced an 85% price cut on Wegovy
• The Competition: Eli Lilly's next-gen drug showing 28.7% weight loss
• The Knockoffs: Compounding pharmacies selling semaglutide for $200 vs $1,000
• The Leadership Shakeup: New CEO, US chief leaving, former CEO back as chairman
• The Denmark Problem: One company = 40% of the Copenhagen Stock Exchange
• Bull vs Bear Case: Volume play or falling knife?

Key Numbers:

• Stock drop: 18% in one day
• 2025 performance: Down 50%
• Guidance: Sales DOWN 5-13% (analysts expected -1.4%)
• Wegovy pill signups: 170,000 in first 4 weeks
• Price cut: $1,000/month → $149/month (85% reduction)
• Eli Lilly next-gen results: 28.7% average weight loss

Sources Referenced:

• CNBC: Novo Nordisk Stock Crashes on 2026 Guidance
• Reuters: Novo Nordisk Issues Bleak 2026 Forecast
• Reuters: Trump Obesity Drug Deal with Novo and Lilly
• Reuters: Lilly's Next-Gen Drug Tops Zepbound in Trials
• Yahoo Finance: Novo Nordisk Shares Tumble 18%
• Euronews: Novo Nordisk Stock Sinks After Bleak Forecast

CEO Quotes (Mike Doustdar):

• "People should expect that it goes down before it comes back up"
• "No matter how well the pill does, the price hit on the existing business trumps the great pill launch"
• "We are creating affordability for millions of patients who simply could not afford it"

Chapters:

• 00:00 - The $50 Billion Crash
• 01:15 - What Is Novo Nordisk?
• 02:30 - The Catastrophic 2026 Guidance
• 03:45 - CEO Says "It Gets Worse"
• 05:00 - The Trump Factor: 85% Price Cut
• 06:30 - Eli Lilly Is Winning
• 08:00 - Compounding Pharmacies
• 09:00 - Leadership Shakeup
• 10:00 - The Denmark Problem
• 11:00 - What Analysts Are Saying
• 12:00 - Bull Case vs Bear Case
• 14:30 - What To Watch
• 15:45 - Final Thoughts

Follow the Show:

Website: moneymen.fm

Tools We Use:

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• (00:00) - The $50 Billion Crash
• (01:15) - What Is Novo Nordisk?
• (02:30) - The Catastrophic 2026 Guidance
• (03:45) - CEO Says It Gets Worse
• (05:00) - The Trump Factor: 85% Price Cut
• (06:30) - Eli Lilly Is Winning
• (08:00) - Compounding Pharmacies
• (09:00) - Leadership Shakeup
• (10:00) - The Denmark Problem
• (11:00) - What Analysts Are Saying
• (12:00) - Bull Case vs Bear Case
• (14:30) - What To Watch
• (15:45) - Final Thoughts

Palantir just dropped Q4 2025 earnings that made Wall Street jaw drop. 70% revenue growth. 57% operating margins. A billion dollars in US revenue in a single quarter. And CEO Alex Karp went on the earnings call and said: We are N of one.

Translation: No competition.

Is that arrogance? Or is Palantir actually the only AI company that figured out how to make real money from artificial intelligence?

In this episode, we break down everything: the numbers, the eccentric sword-carrying philosopher CEO, why their ontology is a secret weapon, the controversial ICE contracts, and whether the stock is worth buying at 39x forward revenue.

Today's Show:

• The Earnings: $1.41B revenue, 70% YoY growth, 137% US commercial growth
• Who Is Alex Karp: Philosophy PhD, practices Qi Gong, carries a sword, built a $150B company
• Why Palantir Wins: The ontology - their proprietary data model that makes AI actually do things
• Government Contracts: $448M Navy deal, AI drones on battlefields, Pentagon trust
• The Dark Side: ICE surveillance, immigration raids, Rise of the Surveillance State
• The Bear Case: 39x revenue, slowing customer growth, 50% downside risk
• Investment Takeaways: What Palantir tells us about where AI value actually lives

Key Numbers:

• Revenue: $1.41B (+70% YoY)
• US Commercial Growth: 137%
• Operating Margin: 57%
• Free Cash Flow: $791M
• Rule of 40 Score: 127 (anything above 40 is excellent)
• 2026 Guidance: $7.2B (beat expectations by $1B)

Sources Referenced:

• Book: The Philosopher in the Valley by Michael Steinberger
• CNBC: Palantir Q4 2025 Earnings Report
• CNBC: What Analysts Are Saying About Palantir
• Business Insider: Wall Street Reactions to Palantir Earnings
• Palantir IR: US Navy $448M Partnership
• Military.com: Navy Palantir AI Shipbuilding Deal
• Palantir Investor Relations

Alex Karp Quotes:

• We are N of one, and these numbers prove it
• AI will destroy humanity jobs
• The US government demand for our product is greater than we can satisfy

Chapters:

• 00:00 - Intro: The Only AI Company Actually Making Money
• 01:27 - Palantir Blockbuster Q4 2025 Earnings
• 03:17 - Who Is Alex Karp? The Sword-Carrying Philosopher CEO
• 04:55 - Why Palantir Is Winning: The Ontology Secret
• 08:27 - Government Contracts: Navy, AI Drones and Pentagon
• 09:49 - The Dark Side: ICE, Surveillance and Controversy
• 11:21 - The Bear Case: Why PLTR Could Drop 50%
• 12:34 - What It Means for Investors
• 13:46 - Final Thoughts: Arrogance or Truth?

Follow the Show:

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• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:30) - The Earnings Bombshell
• (03:00) - Who Is Alex Karp?
• (05:00) - Why Is Palantir Winning?
• (07:00) - The Boot Camp Model
• (09:00) - The Government Backbone
• (11:00) - The Bear Case
• (13:00) - What This Means For You

Cathie Wood just predicted a "Goldilocks" economy—5% GDP growth with FALLING inflation. Bitcoin to $1.2 million. Tesla to $2,600.

This is the same investor whose fund crashed 75%. The same person who said Zoom would hit $1,500—it's at $74. So why should anyone listen?

Because she also called Tesla before anyone. Called Bitcoin when banks said it was a scam. Built a $60 billion fund from nothing. We go source-by-source through her January 2026 interviews and ARK's Big Ideas report to break down exactly what she's predicting—and whether any of it makes sense.

What to expect in this episode:

• The Goldilocks Thesis: Why Cathie thinks we're getting 5% GDP growth AND falling inflation at the same time
• Bitcoin to $1.2 Million: The math behind ARK's most controversial prediction and why she calls it "digital gold"
• Tesla's Robotaxi Bet: Why 90% of her $2,600 target comes from self-driving taxis, not cars
• The AI Productivity Boom: Her prediction of 4-6% annual productivity growth (3x the historical average)
• Three Deflationary Forces: Energy, shelter, and China—the factors she says will push prices DOWN
• The Track Record Problem: Zoom, Teladoc, Roku—why her predictions have been disasters
• Cathie vs. The Legends: What Buffett, Dalio, and Druckenmiller are saying that contradicts her view

Key Insights:

• Technology is deflationary; money printing is inflationary—which force wins in 2026?
• Being directionally right is NOT enough—valuation and timing matter
• A 75% drawdown is still a 75% drawdown, no matter how "right" your thesis is
• When Buffett holds $381B in cash, that tells you something about valuations

Sources Referenced:

• CNBC Squawk Box Interview (Jan 16, 2026)
• ARK "In The Know" (Jan 9, 2026)
• ARK Big Ideas 2026 Report
• ARK Daily Trade Disclosures

Follow the Show:

→ Website: moneymen.fm

Tools We Use:

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• (00:00) - Introduction
• (02:00) - What Cathie Is Saying Right Now
• (07:00) - Her Actual Track Record
• (12:00) - Her Investing Philosophy
• (17:00) - Cathie vs. The Legends
• (21:00) - Should You Listen to Her?