Sickening scenarios have now come within reach. That's Michael Burry — the Big Short guy who predicted 2008 — warning that Bitcoin could trigger a collapse where there's "no buyer." Meanwhile, Michael Saylor just said he'll keep buying Bitcoin "every quarter forever." Someone's about to be catastrophically wrong. $54 billion is on the line.

Today's Show:

• Burry's Death Spiral Thesis: The Big Short investor says Strategy faces an "existential crisis" if Bitcoin hits $60K. He warns tokenized metal futures could "collapse into a black hole with no buyers."
• Strategy's Position: 715,000 BTC at $76K average cost. Currently $9K underwater per coin. $12.4B net loss in Q4 2025. MNAV dipping below 1 — the "last resort" trigger.
• Saylor's Response: "If Bitcoin falls 90% for four years, we'll refinance. We'll roll it forward." He expects to buy "every quarter forever."
• Burry's Track Record: Predicted 2008 brilliantly — but since then? Wrong on Tesla (up 700%), wrong on AI (shorted NVDA), wrong on Bitcoin (called it "worse than tulips"). Underperformed S&P by 5-7% annually for a decade.
• What Market Makers Say: Wintermute says we're in a bear market but "not a structural blowup like FTX, Luna, or Three Arrows." Macro-driven, not fraud-driven.
• Whale Activity: 152,000 BTC accumulated by whales in 30 days while 580,000 retail traders got liquidated. Cathie Wood bought $72M during the crash.
• Saylor's 2026 Timeline: Base case $120-140K (60% probability). March: 20 millionth BTC mined. Q4: momentum builds.

Key Numbers:

• $54 billion — Strategy's Bitcoin position value
• 715,000 — Total BTC held by Strategy (3% of all Bitcoin)
• $76,000 — Strategy's average cost per BTC
• $12.4 billion — Strategy's Q4 2025 net loss
• 47% — Bitcoin's crash from October high of $126K
• 70% — Strategy stock decline from all-time high
• 152,000 — BTC accumulated by whales in 30 days

Sources:

• CNBC: Michael Saylor on Strategy's Bitcoin Position
• CNBC: Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000
• CoinDesk: Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings Are Unencumbered
• CryptoQuant: Whale Accumulation Data
• Strategy Investor Relations: Q4 2025 Earnings
• Coin Bureau: Strategy MNAV Analysis
• What Bitcoin Did Podcast: Michael Saylor Interview
• Wintermute Research: Crypto Bear Market Analysis
• ARK Invest: Cathie Wood's $72M Crypto Purchase

Practical Takeaways:

• Don't panic sell — every major BTC crash has been followed by new ATHs
• Don't over-leverage — margin calls are destroying traders right now
• Burry being famous doesn't make him right (terrible track record since 2008)
• Saylor being bullish doesn't make him right (massive personal exposure = bias)

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• (00:00) - Intro - Saylor vs Burry: $54B on the Line
• (01:21) - Burry's Death Spiral Thesis
• (04:34) - Strategy's Numbers: $715K BTC, $12B Loss
• (05:58) - MNAV Explained - The Danger Line
• (07:10) - Saylor's Response
• (09:10) - Burry's Track Record Since 2008
• (11:41) - Why Burry's Framework Fails
• (12:55) - What Market Makers Say (Wintermute)
• (14:07) - What Whales Are Doing
• (14:48) - Saylor's 2026 Timeline
• (16:38) - Who's Right?
• (18:41) - Practical Takeaways