In less than 1 hour... the most important number of 2026 drops. At 8:30 AM Eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the January CPI report. Will inflation finally break below 2.5%... confirming the soft landing? Or will we get another hot surprise?

Here's what most people don't know: 10 out of the last 11 January CPI reports have surprised to the UPSIDE. JPMorgan sees a 42% chance of a hot print. Barclays says there's meaningful upside risk.

Today's Show:

• The January Curse: Why January inflation always runs hot - the annual price reset phenomenon and residual seasonality
• What JPMorgan Is Seeing: 42.5% odds of a hotter print, but limited market reaction if it happens - the fear is priced in
• Inside The Fed's Head: A structurally dovish Fed more likely to save the labor market than fight inflation
• Powell's Swan Song: April could be his last meeting - 47% chance of a final rate cut
• What To Watch: Core services, shelter costs, tariff passthrough, car insurance and healthcare
• The Three Scenarios: Cool (face ripper rally), In-Line (yawn), Hot (contained damage)

Key Numbers:

• 2.5% — Consensus CPI forecast (lowest since May 2025)
• 10 out of 11 — January CPIs that surprised hot
• 42.5% — JPMorgan's odds of a hotter print
• 3.5-3.75% — Current Fed funds rate
• 60 bps — Rate cuts priced for 2026 (2-3 cuts)
• 50% — Odds of first cut in June
• 47% — Odds of cut at Powell's final April meeting

Key Insight:

POSITIONING matters more than PREDICTION. The market is already braced for bad news. A cool print could be the bigger surprise.

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• (00:00) - Intro
• (02:00) - Setting The Stage
• (05:00) - The January Curse
• (08:00) - What JPMorgan Is Seeing
• (10:30) - Inside The Fed's Head
• (13:00) - The Rate Cut Math
• (15:30) - What To Watch
• (18:00) - The Three Scenarios
• (21:00) - The Bigger Picture
• (23:00) - Outro

Sickening scenarios have now come within reach. That's Michael Burry — the Big Short guy who predicted 2008 — warning that Bitcoin could trigger a collapse where there's "no buyer." Meanwhile, Michael Saylor just said he'll keep buying Bitcoin "every quarter forever." Someone's about to be catastrophically wrong. $54 billion is on the line.

Today's Show:

• Burry's Death Spiral Thesis: The Big Short investor says Strategy faces an "existential crisis" if Bitcoin hits $60K. He warns tokenized metal futures could "collapse into a black hole with no buyers."
• Strategy's Position: 715,000 BTC at $76K average cost. Currently $9K underwater per coin. $12.4B net loss in Q4 2025. MNAV dipping below 1 — the "last resort" trigger.
• Saylor's Response: "If Bitcoin falls 90% for four years, we'll refinance. We'll roll it forward." He expects to buy "every quarter forever."
• Burry's Track Record: Predicted 2008 brilliantly — but since then? Wrong on Tesla (up 700%), wrong on AI (shorted NVDA), wrong on Bitcoin (called it "worse than tulips"). Underperformed S&P by 5-7% annually for a decade.
• What Market Makers Say: Wintermute says we're in a bear market but "not a structural blowup like FTX, Luna, or Three Arrows." Macro-driven, not fraud-driven.
• Whale Activity: 152,000 BTC accumulated by whales in 30 days while 580,000 retail traders got liquidated. Cathie Wood bought $72M during the crash.
• Saylor's 2026 Timeline: Base case $120-140K (60% probability). March: 20 millionth BTC mined. Q4: momentum builds.

Key Numbers:

• $54 billion — Strategy's Bitcoin position value
• 715,000 — Total BTC held by Strategy (3% of all Bitcoin)
• $76,000 — Strategy's average cost per BTC
• $12.4 billion — Strategy's Q4 2025 net loss
• 47% — Bitcoin's crash from October high of $126K
• 70% — Strategy stock decline from all-time high
• 152,000 — BTC accumulated by whales in 30 days

Sources:

• CNBC: Michael Saylor on Strategy's Bitcoin Position
• CNBC: Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000
• CoinDesk: Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings Are Unencumbered
• CryptoQuant: Whale Accumulation Data
• Strategy Investor Relations: Q4 2025 Earnings
• Coin Bureau: Strategy MNAV Analysis
• What Bitcoin Did Podcast: Michael Saylor Interview
• Wintermute Research: Crypto Bear Market Analysis
• ARK Invest: Cathie Wood's $72M Crypto Purchase

Practical Takeaways:

• Don't panic sell — every major BTC crash has been followed by new ATHs
• Don't over-leverage — margin calls are destroying traders right now
• Burry being famous doesn't make him right (terrible track record since 2008)
• Saylor being bullish doesn't make him right (massive personal exposure = bias)

Follow Money Men:

→ Website: moneymen.fm

→ X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

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• (00:00) - Intro - Saylor vs Burry: $54B on the Line
• (01:21) - Burry's Death Spiral Thesis
• (04:34) - Strategy's Numbers: $715K BTC, $12B Loss
• (05:58) - MNAV Explained - The Danger Line
• (07:10) - Saylor's Response
• (09:10) - Burry's Track Record Since 2008
• (11:41) - Why Burry's Framework Fails
• (12:55) - What Market Makers Say (Wintermute)
• (14:07) - What Whales Are Doing
• (14:48) - Saylor's 2026 Timeline
• (16:38) - Who's Right?
• (18:41) - Practical Takeaways

Ray Dalio just issued one of the most chilling warnings about money I've ever heard: "There will be no privacy." He's not talking about social media or government surveillance—he's talking about your bank account, every transaction you make, and why central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are coming whether we like it or not.

Today's Show:

• Ray Dalio's CBDC Warning: Why the government will be able to see everything you buy and freeze your accounts with one click
• What Are CBDCs?: Central bank digital currencies explained in plain English
• The Privacy Problem: Why every transaction becomes traceable and controllable
• Stage 5 of Collapse: Where America sits in Dalio's model of civilizations rising and falling
• Civil War Risks: Why Dalio sees real signs of internal conflict today
• How to Protect Yourself: What Dalio says you should do with your money right now

Key Warnings from Dalio:

• CBDCs will eliminate financial privacy
• Government can freeze accounts instantly
• America heading toward "financial heart attack"
• Real signs of civil war today
• Stage 5 of collapse indicators visible now

Sources:

• Tucker Carlson: Ray Dalio Interview (Full Episode)
• Bridgewater Associates
• Ray Dalio's Principles
• Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio
• Bank for International Settlements: Central Bank Digital Currencies
• Federal Reserve: Digital Currency

Follow the Show:

Website: moneymen.fm

X/Twitter: @moneymenpod

Tools We Use:

→ TradingView: Get TradingView (Charts & analysis - affiliate link)

• (00:00) - Intro: Ray Dalio's Warning
• (01:29) - Who is Ray Dalio?
• (04:39) - What Are CBDCs?
• (08:19) - The Privacy Problem
• (12:09) - Government Control
• (15:49) - Stage 5 of Collapse
• (19:39) - Civil War Risks
• (22:29) - How to Protect Yourself