(0:00) Bestie intros: Happy Fourth of July!

(0:21) Palantir-Nvidia open source deal, Alex Karp's CNBC "Crashout"

(33:52) Update on the AI jobs debate

(50:24) Anthropic's Fable 5 available after export restrictions lifted

(59:06) SCOTUS upholds birthright citizenship, striking Trump's EO

(1:21:30) Newsom's "balanced budget" and how California's dire fiscal situation could break apart the Union

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/palantir-secure-ai-us-agencies-nemotron-open-models

https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2072326189079757277

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-blindsides-business-partners?rc=f8fu8f

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FIG:NYSE

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2072673187666813226

https://x.com/chamath/status/2072665199786561713

https://x.com/quxiaoyin/status/2072428278976074115

https://x.com/chamath/status/2072390507628540213

https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/chinese-national-pleads-guilty-running-birth-tourism-scheme-helped-aliens-give-birth-us

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democratic-socialist-melat-kiros-defeats-longtime-house-incumbent-in-colorado-primary

https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/2070496029280276571

https://www.ocregister.com/2026/02/27/these-charts-show-how-californias-budget-has-skyrocketed

https://x.com/JeanneIves/status/2072165726526308719

https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!

(10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India

(25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base

(34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems

(45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed

(50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard

(55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC

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Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

(0:00) Gavin Baker and Travis Kalanick join the show!

(1:05) Mamdani-endorsed socialists sweep congressional primaries in NYC

(22:51) Future of the Democratic Party, the Israel issue, social media bans

(45:12) China's open-source AI catch up, distillation, OpenAI's new chip

(1:01:46) Micron smashes earnings, AI's memory crunch hitting Apple and consumer hardware

(1:10:17) The math behind distributed compute and datacenters in space

(1:27:22) IPO update: Anthropic at $3T, SpaceX float, Cerebras drops after breaking deal price

Follow Gavin:

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Apply for Summit 2026:

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Follow the besties:

https://x.com/chamath

https://x.com/Jason

https://x.com/DavidSacks

https://x.com/friedberg

Follow on X:

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Follow on Instagram:

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Follow on TikTok:

https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod

Follow on LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod

Intro Music Credit:

https://rb.gy/tppkzl

https://x.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:

https://x.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:

https://abcnews.com/Politics/clean-sweep-3-candidates-endorsed-mamdani-win-primaries/story?id=134152579

https://polymarket.com/event/mamdani-team-sweeps-primaries-20260618232357710

https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2067356255916536120

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/espaillat-ny-house-primary-loss-district-13-avila-chevalier-rcna351127

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069645066252034288

https://x.com/america/status/2069622732279402804

https://x.com/realmaalouf/status/2069433391162798337

https://x.com/JoshBlockDC/status/2070108811851882691

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069776474429624684

https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2068829255786803368

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/07/negative-views-of-israel-netanyahu-continue-to-rise-among-americans-especially-young-people

https://x.com/PirateWires/status/2069146641266094417

https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-data-center-boom-is-sparking-a-third-wave-of-inflation-926adc6e

https://x.com/jietang/status/2067580270078030088