Wait, why did Sam Altman say AI was in a bubble? Or did he? Is it? 8 points for you to consider, before we all get distracted by Nano Banana.

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:14 - Sam Altman Clarification
02:30 - Media Calls a Bubble (for the tenth time)
03:40 - MIT and McKinsey Analysed
08:21 - Incremental Progress Deceptive
12:07 - Reasoning Breakthroughs
15:31 - CEOs might not know their products
17:25 - But did stocks go down?
17:31 - Media is Contradictory of course


https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/gaza-crisis-appeal


Bubble about to burst: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/20/ai-report-triggering-panic-and-fear-on-wall-street/

Nano Banana: https://blog.google/products/gemini/updated-image-editing-model/
https://ai.studio/banana

McKinsey Report: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/seizing-the-agentic-ai-advantage#/
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai#/
Revenue: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mckinsey-consulting-firms-ai-strategy-89fbf1be

MIT Report: https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf

Safe Superintelligence: https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/12/openai-co-founder-ilya-sutskevers-safe-superintelligence-reportedly-valued-at-32b/

Thinking Machines Lab: https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/15/mira-muratis-thinking-machines-lab-is-worth-12b-in-seed-round/

WSJ Prediction 2024: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-ai-revolution-is-already-losing-steam-a93478b1
WP Prediction 2023: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/08/05/ai-hype-bubble-chatgpt/

Companies are Pouring Billions into AI: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/business/ai-business-payoff-lags.html

Consumer Surplus: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ais-overlooked-97-billion-contribution-to-the-economy-users-service-da6e8f55
Figure AI robot: https://x.com/adcock_brett/status/1958193476639826383

GDP Bet: https://x.com/adamdangelo/status/1627726566259318784?lang=en

Genie 3 Immersion: https://x.com/holynski_/status/1953879983535141043

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953861448431718662
htttps://simple-bench.com
MMMU: https://mmmu-benchmark.github.io/#leaderboard
Prophet Arena: https://www.prophetarena.co/leaderboard

NYT Jobs: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/opinion/ai-job-loss-deindustrialization.html

Dawn of Reasoning?: https://openreview.net/pdf?id=FkKBxp0FhR
vs :https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.04121

ARC-AGI: https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/1/
https://x.com/fchollet/status/1870169764762710376?lang=en-GB

Turing Test: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.23674

Mathematics of Starvation: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/31/the-mathematics-of-starvation-how-israel-caused-a-famine-in-gaza
https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/gaza-crisis-appeal

https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

METR Interview: https://www.patreon.com/c/aiexplained/posts

AlphaEvolve: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/
Paper: https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/Blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/AlphaEvolve.pdf

Amodei: https://kantrowitz.medium.com/the-making-of-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-449777529dd6
https://www.theloganbartlettshow.com/archive/ep-82-dario-amodeis-ai-predictions-through-2030#:~:text=DARIO%3A%20I%20think%20our%20concern,being%20responsible%20to%20accelerate%20things
Unreleased OpenAI: https://x.com/alexwei_/status/1954966393419599962

VLMs Tricked: https://x.com/an_vo12/status/1943715159559545186



AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

GPT-5 will change how hundreds of millions of people use AI. Yes, you might have to forgive the chart crimes, the underwhelming livestream and Altman hype… But it’s a good model. I have read the 50 page system card in full, have the benchmark scores, coding tests, and things you might have missed.

https://app.grayswan.ai/ai-explained

Announcement: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5/

System Card: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/8124a3ce-ab78-4f06-96eb-49ea29ffb52f/gpt5-system-card-aug7.pdf

Extra Paper: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/be60c07b-6bc2-4f54-bcee-4141e1d6c69a/gpt-5-safe_completions.pdf

Altman tweet: https://x.com/sama/status/1953551377873117369

Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uu_VJeVVfo

METR Report: https://metr.github.io/autonomy-evals-guide/gpt-5-report/

ARC-AGI-2: https://x.com/fchollet/status/1953511631054680085

Claude Opus 4.1: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-1

MMMU: https://mmmu-benchmark.github.io/

Cursor Praise: https://x.com/ryolu_/status/1953531724895596669

Soon, anything will be playable. A photo becomes an interactive world, a selfie becomes a new game. Genie 3 from Google, debuting just 2 hours ago, is what I mean, and I have the full analysis, plus the pushback I gave the authors (will it really lead to reliable AI agents? Is that even the point?). You make your own mind up, but it’s certainly fascinating, and not to be overlooked in the week that will bring us GPT-5.

https://80000hours.org/aiexplained

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:27 - Background and Access
04:58 - Caveats
07:24 - Demo
10:12 - Conclusion

Announcement: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/genie-3-a-new-frontier-for-world-models/

Isaac Labs: https://developer.nvidia.com/isaac/lab

Genie 2 Coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIm2T7h_a0M

TED Talk Roblox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OAP0ho5AUg

DeepThink Post: https://www.patreon.com/posts/deep-ish-on-new-135688441

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained


Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/

GPT-5 did what? OpenAI ahead of Google? There are 9 ways to misread the headlines of the last 48 hours, so this video is here to tell you what happened, sans sizzle. It’s been a fairly momentous last few days, so let’s dive in to the International Math Olympiad Gold, GPT-5 alpha release, whether mathematicians are out of jobs, and the white collar impact by year’s end.

Job Board: https://80000hours.org/aiexplained

New Documentary on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/posts/our-new-age-of-133960279

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
00:18 - AI > Mathematicians?

01:23 - OPENAI vs GOOGLE

02:42 - Irrelevant to Jobs or …

06:45 - White-collar jobs gone?

10:26 - AI is Plateauing?

12:00 - We Don’t Know the Details…

14:33 - GPT-5 alpha

14:54 - Nothing but Exponentials?

15:53 - No Impact?

Announcement: https://x.com/alexwei_/status/1946477742855532918

UCLA Math Prof: https://x.com/ErnestRyu/status/1946699302308635130

ChatGPT Agent: https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-agent/

Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jn_RpbPbEc&t=796s
System Card: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/839e66fc-602c-48bf-81d3-b21eacc3459d/chatgpt_agent_system_card.pdf

Jerry Tworek (OpenAI): https://x.com/MillionInt/status/1946556255490982022

https://x.com/MillionInt/status/1946558130906968330

Noam Brown Details: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1946478249187377206

Trieu Tranh Retweet: https://x.com/Mihonarium/status/1946880931723194389

Neel Nanda: https://x.com/NeelNanda5/status/1946602953370173647

Terence Tao: https://mathstodon.xyz/@tao

Sam Altman: https://x.com/sama/status/1946569252296929727

METR Dev Study: https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

Ravid Schwatz: https://x.com/ziv_ravid/status/1946378712716562605

AlphaEvolve: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/

https://simple-bench.com/

Meta Salary: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/abel-founder-claims-meta-offered-usd1-25-billion-over-four-years-to-ai-hire-person-still-said-no-despite-equivalent-of-usd312-million-yearly-salary

$2k per month: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-considers-higher-priced-subscriptions-to-its-chatbot-ai-preview-of-the-informations-ai-summit?rc=sy0ihq

Grok 4 is here, but did you know these 10 things about the new model? From benchmark caveats to soloing science, $300 a month secrets to Grok 5 promises, here's 10 new things to know in just under 12 minutes.

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
00:22 - Benchmark Results
02:11 - Benchmark Caveats
02:59 - ARC-AGI 2
03:35 - SimpleBench
04:49 - ‘Humanity’s Last Exam’
07:20 - SuperGrok Heavy Price
07:58 - API Price
08:12 - Grok 5, Gemini 3.0 Beta, GPT-5
09:12 - System Prompt Change + $1B a month, pollution
10:20 - Not soloing science, helping you solo code

Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tQ_KrlHgfg&t=1s

Price: https://grok.com/#subscribe
https://x.com/ArtificialAnlys/status/1943166841150644622

Gemini DeepThink: https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/google-gemini-updates-io-2025/#deep-think

https://simple-bench.com/

ARC-AGI 2: https://x.com/arcprize/status/1943168950763950555

Humanity’s Last Exam: https://agi.safe.ai/

SmartGPT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVade_8H8mE

New Power Plant, 1m GPUs: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/elon-musk-xai-power-plant-overseas-to-power-1-million-gpus

Gemini 3.0 beta: https://web.archive.org/web/20250709174548/https://github.com/google-gemini/gemini-cli/blob/b0cce952860b9ff51a0f731fbb8a7649ead23530/packages/cli/src/ui/utils/errorParsing.test.ts

Pollution: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/24/elon-musk-xai-memphis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8rU4dv2w8Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VJT2JeDCyw

System Prompt: https://github.com/xai-org/grok-prompts/blob/535aa67a6221ce4928761335a38dea8e678d8501/ask_grok_system_prompt.j2

Burn Rate: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/musk-s-xai-burning-through-1-billion-a-month-as-costs-pile-up

Ron Johnson: https://x.com/jdcmedlock/status/1939814516503847259



Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/

Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/

In the last few days Anthropic have released an impressive honest account of how all models blackmail, no matter what goal they have, and despite prompt warnings, and other preventions. But do these models *want* this?

Thanks to Storyblocks for sponsoring this video! Download unlimited stock media at one set price with Storyblocks: storyblocks.com/AIExplained


AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:20 - What prompts blackmail?
02:44 - Blackmail walkthrough
06:04 - ‘American interests’
08:00 - Inherent desire?
10:45 - Switching Goals
11:35 - Murder
12:22 - Realizing it’s a scenario?
15:02 - Prompt engineering fix?
16:27 - Any fixes?
17:45 - Chekov’s Gun
19:25 - Job implications
21:19 - Bonus Details

Report: https://www.anthropic.com/research/agentic-misalignment
30 Page Appendices: https://assets.anthropic.com/m/6d46dac66e1a132a/original/Agentic_Misalignment_Appendix.pdf
Announcement: https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/1936144602446082431?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
OpenAI Files: https://www.openaifiles.org/
Grok 4 News: https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1936372579607912473
Claude 4 Report Card: https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/6be99a52cb68eb70eb9572b4cafad13df32ed995.pdf
New Apollo Research: https://www.apolloresearch.ai/blog/more-capable-models-are-better-at-in-context-scheming
Interesting Reflections: https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/785766737747574784/the-void


Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/

What to make of those headlines that AI can’t reason, seen by tens of millions? I cover the paper in layman’s terms, what it means and doesn’t mean, and what’s next.

Thanks to Storyblocks for sponsoring this video! Download unlimited stock media at one set price with Storyblocks: https://storyblocks.com/AIExplained

Plus o3-pro and whether it is my current most-recommended model.

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
00:57 - Viral Post + Headlines
01:42 - Apple Paper Analysis
08:34 - But they do Hallucinate
10:43 - Not Supercomputers
11:18 - o3 Pro and Recommendations


13.7M Tweet: https://x.com/RubenHssd/status/1931389580105925115

Apple Paper: https://ml-site.cdn-apple.com/papers/the-illusion-of-thinking.pdf

Guardian Article: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jun/09/apple-artificial-intelligence-ai-study-collapse

Lisan al Gaib post: https://x.com/scaling01/status/1931854370716426246

Multiplication: https://x.com/yuntiandeng/status/1836114401213989366

The Illusion of the Illusion of Thinking: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Zx9ikRj0Enc3SB4wA9HlYIlpmO_8QiUO/view

Marcus: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/10/billion-dollar-ai-puzzle-break-down

Prof Rao: https://x.com/rao2z/status/1927707640223719631

AI Job Headlines: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/technology/ai-mechanize-jobs.html
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic

Sky News Story: https://news.sky.com/story/can-we-trust-chatgpt-despite-it-hallucinating-answers-13380975

Veo 3 Ad: https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1932891608388681791

Altman Essay: https://blog.samaltman.com/

o3 Original benchmarks: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b8b6c44-acd6-43b3-b5c6-1a1d5c6c25e4_2486x1388.png

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GfQ0bfcXQAAQt13.jpg

Alpha Evolve Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RH4hAgvYSzg

https://simple-bench.com/


Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/

There’s a new best language model, so let’s go through the up and downs of Gemini 2.5 Pro 06-05. Record-breaking common-sense, but dumb mistakes remain. And it’s not even their best model, which remains behind the scenes - Gemini 2.5 Ultra. Plus Sundar Pichai’s AGI date and an analysis of whether the current AI unemployment headlines are justified, and Elevenlabs v3.


https://emergentmind.com


AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
02:04 - Gemini 2.5 Ultra
03:34 - Benchmarks
07:41 - AGI Date and Meaning Pichai
09:13 - Jobs and AI Unemployment Fears
15:28 - Elevenlabs v3

Sundar Pichai Fridman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V6tWC4CdFQ

Pichai More Jobs (until 2026 at least): https://www.techradar.com/pro/alphabet-ceo-sundar-pichai-says-ai-wont-lead-to-job-cuts-will-be-an-accelerator

Gemini Comparison: https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-2-5-pro-latest-preview/
https://x.com/viathebrink/status/1930733154203292121

https://simple-bench.com/

White Collar Bloodbath: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic
https://fortune.com/2025/05/25/ai-entry-level-jobs-gen-z-careers-young-workers-linkedin/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/opinion/linkedin-ai-entry-level-jobs.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/business/economy/white-collar-layoffs.html

College Unemployment: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market/#--:explore:unemployment

New Scientist AI Hallucinaitons: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2479545-ai-hallucinations-are-getting-worse-and-theyre-here-to-stay/

Duolingo: https://fortune.com/2025/05/24/duolingo-ai-first-employees-ceo-luis-von-ahn/
Klarna: https://www.forbes.com/sites/quickerbettertech/2025/05/18/business-tech-news-klarna-reverses-on-ai-says-customers-like-talking-to-people/

Sholto Douglas: https://www.reddit.com/r/ClaudeAI/comments/1ktt1rb/anthropics_sholto_douglas_says_by_202728_its/

Figure 02: https://x.com/adcock_brett/status/1930693311771332853

Elevenlabs v3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv_IoWIO5Ek

Gemini Speech Generation: https://aistudio.google.com/generate-speech


Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/