Wait, why did Sam Altman say AI was in a bubble? Or did he? Is it? 8 points for you to consider, before we all get distracted by Nano Banana.

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:14 - Sam Altman Clarification
02:30 - Media Calls a Bubble (for the tenth time)
03:40 - MIT and McKinsey Analysed
08:21 - Incremental Progress Deceptive
12:07 - Reasoning Breakthroughs
15:31 - CEOs might not know their products
17:25 - But did stocks go down?
17:31 - Media is Contradictory of course


https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/gaza-crisis-appeal


Bubble about to burst: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/20/ai-report-triggering-panic-and-fear-on-wall-street/

Nano Banana: https://blog.google/products/gemini/updated-image-editing-model/
https://ai.studio/banana

McKinsey Report: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/seizing-the-agentic-ai-advantage#/
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai#/
Revenue: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mckinsey-consulting-firms-ai-strategy-89fbf1be

MIT Report: https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf

Safe Superintelligence: https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/12/openai-co-founder-ilya-sutskevers-safe-superintelligence-reportedly-valued-at-32b/

Thinking Machines Lab: https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/15/mira-muratis-thinking-machines-lab-is-worth-12b-in-seed-round/

WSJ Prediction 2024: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-ai-revolution-is-already-losing-steam-a93478b1
WP Prediction 2023: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/08/05/ai-hype-bubble-chatgpt/

Companies are Pouring Billions into AI: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/business/ai-business-payoff-lags.html

Consumer Surplus: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ais-overlooked-97-billion-contribution-to-the-economy-users-service-da6e8f55
Figure AI robot: https://x.com/adcock_brett/status/1958193476639826383

GDP Bet: https://x.com/adamdangelo/status/1627726566259318784?lang=en

Genie 3 Immersion: https://x.com/holynski_/status/1953879983535141043

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953861448431718662
htttps://simple-bench.com
MMMU: https://mmmu-benchmark.github.io/#leaderboard
Prophet Arena: https://www.prophetarena.co/leaderboard

NYT Jobs: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/opinion/ai-job-loss-deindustrialization.html

Dawn of Reasoning?: https://openreview.net/pdf?id=FkKBxp0FhR
vs :https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.04121

ARC-AGI: https://arcprize.org/arc-agi/1/
https://x.com/fchollet/status/1870169764762710376?lang=en-GB

Turing Test: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2503.23674

Mathematics of Starvation: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/31/the-mathematics-of-starvation-how-israel-caused-a-famine-in-gaza
https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/gaza-crisis-appeal

https://metr.org/blog/2025-07-10-early-2025-ai-experienced-os-dev-study/

METR Interview: https://www.patreon.com/c/aiexplained/posts

AlphaEvolve: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/
Paper: https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/Blog/alphaevolve-a-gemini-powered-coding-agent-for-designing-advanced-algorithms/AlphaEvolve.pdf

Amodei: https://kantrowitz.medium.com/the-making-of-anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-449777529dd6
https://www.theloganbartlettshow.com/archive/ep-82-dario-amodeis-ai-predictions-through-2030#:~:text=DARIO%3A%20I%20think%20our%20concern,being%20responsible%20to%20accelerate%20things
Unreleased OpenAI: https://x.com/alexwei_/status/1954966393419599962

VLMs Tricked: https://x.com/an_vo12/status/1943715159559545186



AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

GPT-5 will change how hundreds of millions of people use AI. Yes, you might have to forgive the chart crimes, the underwhelming livestream and Altman hype… But it’s a good model. I have read the 50 page system card in full, have the benchmark scores, coding tests, and things you might have missed.

https://app.grayswan.ai/ai-explained

Announcement: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5/

System Card: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/8124a3ce-ab78-4f06-96eb-49ea29ffb52f/gpt5-system-card-aug7.pdf

Extra Paper: https://cdn.openai.com/pdf/be60c07b-6bc2-4f54-bcee-4141e1d6c69a/gpt-5-safe_completions.pdf

Altman tweet: https://x.com/sama/status/1953551377873117369

Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Uu_VJeVVfo

METR Report: https://metr.github.io/autonomy-evals-guide/gpt-5-report/

ARC-AGI-2: https://x.com/fchollet/status/1953511631054680085

Claude Opus 4.1: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-opus-4-1

MMMU: https://mmmu-benchmark.github.io/

Cursor Praise: https://x.com/ryolu_/status/1953531724895596669

Soon, anything will be playable. A photo becomes an interactive world, a selfie becomes a new game. Genie 3 from Google, debuting just 2 hours ago, is what I mean, and I have the full analysis, plus the pushback I gave the authors (will it really lead to reliable AI agents? Is that even the point?). You make your own mind up, but it’s certainly fascinating, and not to be overlooked in the week that will bring us GPT-5.

https://80000hours.org/aiexplained

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:27 - Background and Access
04:58 - Caveats
07:24 - Demo
10:12 - Conclusion

Announcement: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/genie-3-a-new-frontier-for-world-models/

Isaac Labs: https://developer.nvidia.com/isaac/lab

Genie 2 Coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIm2T7h_a0M

TED Talk Roblox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OAP0ho5AUg

DeepThink Post: https://www.patreon.com/posts/deep-ish-on-new-135688441

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained


Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/