Is non-consensus investing overrated—or the secret to venture returns?

a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg is joined by Martín Casado (General Partner, a16z) and Leo Polovets (General Partner, Humba Ventures) to unpack the debate that lit up venture Twitter/X: should founders and VCs chase consensus, or run from it?

They explore what “consensus” really means in practice, how market efficiency shapes venture outcomes, why most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation, and the risks founders face when they’re too far outside consensus.

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

01:04 Defining Consensus and Market Efficiency

06:30 The Role of Hot Rounds and Market Signals

10:25 Founder Perspective: Risks of Non-Consensus

13:19 Investor Perspective: Indigestion vs. Starvation

18:28 Market Cycles & Sector Hype

23:55 The Evolution of Venture Market Efficiency

26:29 Case Studies & Personal Anecdotes

33:02 Fund Size, Ownership, and the Impact on Strategy

51:40 The Future of Venture: Multi-Stage vs. Seed Funds

Resources:

Find Leo on X: https://x.com/lpolovets

Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Jack Altman sits down with Martin Casado, General Partner at a16z, to unpack the shifting dynamics of venture capital and why media matters more than ever. They cover a16z’s evolution from generalists to specialized platforms, the rise of AI infrastructure, and why today’s fiercest battles are often for talent, not market share.

Timecodes:

0:00 Introduction

0:27 Importance of Media for VC

3:50 Evolution of a16z

7:00 Specialization

10:32 Value of Distribution

13:16 Staying Power in Infrastructure

19:49 The Conflicts Dynamic

26:32 State of Play in AI

30:48 The Future of Coding

34:58 Significance of Open Source

39:48 Marc Andreessen’s Leadership

44:02 The Only Sin in VC

48:37 Scaling a Lot of Board Seats

Resources:

Listen to more from Uncapped: https://linktr.ee/uncappedpod

Find Jack on X: https://x.com/jaltma

Find Uncapped on X: https://x.com/uncapped_pod

Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

What if the future of media isn’t controlled by algorithms or legacy institutions—but by independent voices building directly with their audiences?

In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined by Chris Best, cofounder and CEO of Substack, along with a16z general partners Katherine Boyle and Andrew Chen.

We trace the origin story of Substack and its cultural impact, including how it reinvented the business model for independent media. We also explore the evolution of blogging, the rebundling of media, and what the future holds as attention becomes the scarcest resource.

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction
03:50 Origins of Substack
06:29 The Evolution of Blogging & Media Models
09:15 Direct Audience Connection & Platform Independence
10:57 Vision for Substack & The Role of Algorithms
21:06 Business Models: Ads, Subscriptions, and AI
26:10 The Scarcity of Attention & Value of Good Content
27:45 Unbundling, Rebundling, and the Future of Media Companies
37:12 Academia, Books, and Changing Content Formats
44:31 Substack’s Next Phase & Closing Thoughts

Resources:

Find Chris on Substack: https://cb.substack.com/

Find Chris on X: https://x.com/cjgbest

Find Andrew Chen on Substack: https://andrewchen.substack.com/

Find Andrew on X: https://x.com/andrewchen

Find Katherine on X: https://x.com/KTmBoyle

Find Katherine on Substack: https://boyle.substack.com/

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Venture capital has powered companies like Facebook and TikTok—but what if that same urgency fueled America’s defense and industrial base? Katherine Boyle, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz and cofounder of the firm’s American Dynamism practice, argues this is the biggest business opportunity of our time.

In this conversation from The Shawn Ryan Show, Boyle discusses the rise of defense tech startups, why optimism drives her work, and how a new generation of engineers and founders is rethinking innovation and patriotism in America.

Timecodes:

0:00 Introduction

0:41 Patriotism, Optimism, and American Innovation

4:27 Startups vs. Legacy Primes in Defense

10:08 Venture Capital’s Unique Incentives

17:21 Katherine’s Backstory: Family & Upbringing

21:07 The Decline of Community & Family Pillars

23:23 Polarization, Religion, and Social Fabric

26:16 America’s Birth Rate Crisis

29:46 Cultural Shifts and the Family Structure

42:01 Katherine’s Path: Journalism to Venture Capital

1:06:06 Breaking into Silicon Valley

1:18:06 Investing in Defense: The Anduril Story

1:37:37 The American Dynamism Movement

2:04:27 Manufacturing, Space, and the Future of Defense

2:14:06 Espionage, China, and National Security

2:37:38 The Attack on the American Family

2:48:29 Cultural Change, Suffering, and Purpose

2:55:30 Closing Thoughts

Resources:

Find Katherine on X: https://x.com/KTmBoyle

Shawn Ryan Show Links

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCkoujZQZatbqy4KGcgjpVxQ/join

Listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/shawn-ryan-show/id1492492083

Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5eodRZd3qR9VT1ip1wI7xQ?si=7abec4d61c324b24

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

In this interview from the 20VC podcast, Martin Casado (a16z General Partner) joins Harry Stebbings to unpack the state of AI, the rise of coding models, the future of open vs. closed source, and how value is shifting across the stack.

Martin offers a candid view of the opportunities and dangers shaping AI and venture capital today.

Resources:

Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado

Find Harry on X: https://x.com/harrystebbings

More about 20VC:

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@20VC

Subscribe on Spotify:

https://open.spotify.com/show/3j2KMcZTtgTNBKwtZBMHvl?si=85bc9196860e4466&nd=1&dlsi=d1dbbc6a0d7c4408

Subscribe on Apple Podcasts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twenty-minute-vc-20vc-venture-capital-startup/id958230465

Visit their Website: https://www.20vc.com

Subscribe to their Newsletter: https://www.thetwentyminutevc.com/

Follow 20VC on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/20vchq/#

Follow 20VC on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@20vc_tok

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

What are real consumers actually doing with AI today?

In this episode, a16z consumer investors Olivia Moore and Justine Moore break down the fifth edition of our Consumer AI 100, a biannual ranking of the most used AI-native web and mobile products across the globe.

Timecodes:

0:00 Introduction

1:45 New Companies & Trends

3:32 Companionship & Creative Tools

4:20 Big Tech on the List: Google’s Impact

6:24 Chinese AI Companies & Global Trends

10:19 Vibecoding: A New Trend

13:40 AI All-Stars: Consistent Top Performers

15:30 Network Effects & Product Experience

17:20 Enterprise Adoption & Prosumer Growth

19:40 Biggest Takeaways

21:09 Grok's debut

22:56 Future predictions

25:14 Closing & Audience Engagement

Resources:

Read more about the Top Gen 100: http://a16z.com/100-gen-ai-apps-5/

Find Olivia on X: https://x.com/omooretweets

Find Justine on X: https://x.com/venturetwins

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

What exactly is an AI agent, and how will agents change the way we work?

In this episode, a16z general partners Erik Torenberg and Martin Casado sit down with Aaron Levie (CEO, Box) and Steven Sinofsky (a16z board partner; former Microsoft exec) to unpack one of the hottest debates in AI right now.

They cover:

• Competing definitions of an “agent,” from background tasks to autonomous interns
• Why today’s agents look less like a single AGI and more like networks of specialized sub-agents
• The technical challenges of long-running, self-improving systems
• How agent-driven workflows could reshape coding, productivity, and enterprise software
• What history — from the early PC era to the rise of the internet — tells us about platform shifts like this one

The conversation moves from deep technical questions to big-picture implications for founders, enterprises, and the future of work.

Timecodes:

0:00 Introduction: The Evolution of AI Agents

0:36 Defining Agency and Autonomy

1:54 Long-Running Agents and Feedback Loops

4:49 Specialization and Task Division in AI

6:20 Human-AI Collaboration and Productivity

6:59 Anthropomorphizing AI and Economic Impact

9:10 Predictions, Progress, and Platform Shifts

11:31 Recursive Self-Improvement and Technical Challenges

13:20 Hallucinations, Verification, and Expert Productivity

16:20 The Role of Experts and Tool Adoption

22:14 Changing Workflows: Agents Reshaping Work Patterns

45:55 Division of Labor, Specialization, and New Roles

48:47 Verticalization, Applied AI, and the Future of Agents

54:44 Platform Competition and the Application Layer

55:29 Closing Thoughts and Takeaways

Resources:

Find Aaron on X: https://x.com/levie

Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado

Find Steven on X: https://x.com/stevesi

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Erik Torenberg sits down with Ben Horowitz, Cofounder of a16z, for a candid conversation on venture capital, leadership, and the future of innovation. Recorded live at a16z’s Menlo Park offices in 2023, Ben shares practical wisdom and hard-earned lessons on navigating market cycles, building resilient companies, and why culture is a lasting competitive edge.

Timecodes:

0:00 Introduction

0:49 Building a Lasting Venture Firm

1:57 Product vs. Investor-Driven Firms

5:17 Evolution of Andreessen Horowitz

8:43 Fund Sizing & Market Opportunity

11:38 Recruiting & Culture at a16z

13:58 Supporting Founders & Firm Mission

14:39 Governance & Firm Structure

17:15 The Future of Venture Capital

20:26 Riding Trends: AI, Web3, and Beyond

27:06 Regulation, Open Source, and Innovation

29:22 LPs, Macro, and Long-Term Strategy

33:25 Advice for the Next Generation

37:15 Tech Optimism & Societal Impact

42:33 Closing Thoughts & Outro

Resources:

Find Ben on X: https://x.com/bhorowitz

Subscribe to Turpentine VC: link.chtbl.com/TurpentineVC

Stay Updated:

Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z

Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.