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The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

By: Cate Bakos David Johnston and Mike Mortlock
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 Formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor, our show rebranded in 2023 to The Property Trio.

Residential property is the only asset class we live in, it is where we raise our families, and it is our most expensive investment, yet property advice remains unregulated. Our objective is to educate time-poor professionals through deep insights from our experts who have provided thousands of Australians with personalised advice and education spanning two decades. In a climate where we are overloaded with information and one size fits all recommendations from the media, well-meaning friends and family and so-called advisers, we will distill the raw truth from the ill-informed.

So join the Property Planner, David Johnston, The Property Buyer, Cate Bakos and the Quantity Surveyor, Mike Mortlock as they take you on a journey of discovery through the maze of property, mortgage, and money decisions to empower you to create your ideal lifestyle!



Links to your hosts:
https://www.catebakos.com.au/
https://propertyplanning.com.au/
https://www.mcgqs.com.au/

Copyright The Property Trio Economics Personal Finance
Episodes
  • #316: How Long Does It Take to Double Your Property’s Value? Busting the Myth & How Rates, Supply & Market Fragmentation Changed the Game

    #316: How Long Does It Take to Double Your Property’s Value? Busting the Myth & How Rates, Supply & Market Fragmentation Changed the Game
    Jun 30 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    🎙️ In today’s episode, Mike explores a meaty question that’s been making waves across dinner tables and developer boardrooms alike: Is the Australian property cycle still a thing, or are we living in a new paradigm? The episode is broken up into three segments this week, and the Trio delve into each.

    🌀 Segment 1: The Property Cycle – Useful or Outdated?
    Dave kicks things off by exploring the traditional four-phase cycle: boom, downturn, stabilisation, and recovery. It’s a model many investors have leaned on for decades. Cate shares how this cycle once helped explain the natural ebb and flow of the market — but points out that localised dynamics are now often out of sync with national movements. Mike weighs in with the data. He notes a marked shift in consistency across the capital cities. We’ve moved from a relatively harmonious pattern of growth and contraction to fragmented, often contradictory, trends playing out at hyper-local levels. The “every 7 years your property doubles” mantra? According to Mike, that’s no longer the norm — and the numbers tell a different story.

    📉 Segment 2: What's Changed and Why It Matters
    The Trio then dig into the RBA’s aggressive rate hike cycle — 425 basis points in just 18 months — and the way the market shrugged off textbook expectations. Mike explains that, despite falling borrowing capacity and rising stress, prices bounced back in early 2023 and continued climbing even while rates were still rising. Cate highlights the on-the-ground reality: while buyers paused briefly, vendors didn’t flood the market. Even as fixed-rate cliffs approached, homeowners largely tightened their belts rather than selling. That’s kept supply tight and propped up prices, even in a high-rate environment. As Mike points out, the doubling periods across the capitals are stretching well past 13–17 years, with Hobart being the only exception.

    📆 Segment 3: Is the 18.6-Year Cycle the New Crystal Ball?
    Dave then broaches a long-debated theory — the 18.6-year property cycle. Mike breaks down the five key phases and explains how some analysts believe we’re now in the late-stage “Winner’s Curse” phase, if we take the GFC as the last correction point. Cate agrees there are recognisable patterns but cautions against relying too heavily on any singular model. With policy shifts, immigration swings, pandemics, and planning rules all in the mix, the market rarely sticks to a script.

    And our gold nuggets!....

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Cate references the rule of 72, but she also reminds listeners that 'property doubling every ten years' is not a good rule of thumb.

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: After a discussion with Pete Koulizos was memorable for Mike. "Time in the market, as opposed to timing the market" is important for investors to consider.

    David Johnston's gold nugget: Dave smiles as he references "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" and the magic number, 42. It's a parallel for those who look for guidance with a basic, generalised growth rate. "If life was that simple, everyone would be doing it."

    Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/06/30/the-property-cycle/
    Show More Show Less
    37 mins
  • #315: The Family Home Puzzle - Balancing Budget, Space, School Zones & Selling Properties to Upgrade

    #315: The Family Home Puzzle - Balancing Budget, Space, School Zones & Selling Properties to Upgrade
    Jun 23 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    🎙️ In today’s episode, the Trio dive in to a relatable listener question from Josephine, who’s navigating the next big step in her property journey with her partner. With a growing family and high school on the horizon for their son, Josephine is asking the question — should they stretch and buy a small two-bedroom unit in a coveted school zone now, or wait and hope to afford something bigger later?

    🏠🎓 Josephine and her partner already own a freestanding 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom house, but it’s not in the ideal school catchments they’re now targeting. Their borrowing capacity maxes out at around $650,000 — a budget that’s making it hard to secure the kind of property they want in either of the Secondary school zones they have earmarked in Melbourne.

    🤯 👩‍💼 Cate kicks off the discussion with an honest assessment: $650,000 is a tight stretch for a two-bedroom unit in these high-demand areas. Explaining the the pressure buyers face when chasing school zones and the compromises required, Cate covers a common dilemma.

    🧠 Dave then lays out four clear options for Josephine and her family:
    1. Compromise and buy an apartment in the school zone now.
    2. Sell their current home and upgrade to a family home in the school catchment.
    3. Wait it out, grow their incomes, and buy bigger in a few years.
    4. Ignore school zones for now, and invest where the budget stretches further.
    🎯 Dave shares which of these options he believes offers the strongest long-term strategic value — balancing lifestyle goals with financial fundamentals.

    🔍 Cate takes a deeper look at that fourth option, where lifestyle is deferred but capital growth and investment strategy take the lead. Highlighting this common dilemma when it comes to school zones, Cate unpacks the challenges associated with capital growth and cashflow.

    🏫 The Trio then open up a broader conversation around school zones — the power they wield over price, the risks of overextending, and how buying in the “right” zone doesn’t always guarantee the ideal outcome for families.

    🏘️ If Josephine and her partner do manage to secure a modest property within zone, Cate explores the real challenges they’ll face in terms of space, liveability, and the very real risk of outgrowing the property too soon.

    💸 Dave breaks down the pros and cons of selling the existing home to upgrade. While it may open doors in the school zone, there are emotional and financial costs — including stamp duty, agent fees, and timing the market well.

    🛠️ In this ep, the Trio share a tactical guide to navigating the tricky process of buying and selling at the same time, offering clear tips for developing a sharp purchase strategy and preparing emotionally and practically.

    💼 And Dave wraps with mortgage considerations — from bridging finance to loan portability — offering practical insights to reduce friction and risk in the finance process.

    And our gold nuggets!.....

    Cate Bakos's gold nugget: got so much right with their structuring and decision making when they bought their first property, but one thing Cate wishes they considered was schooling and desired zones. Schooling is a big part of a property plan.

    David Johnston's gold nugget: "We landed at the same point, Cate." Everyone who hasn't set a property plan yet should be asking themselves these questions ahead of time.

    Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: "Anything that doesn't result in two sales is a win!"

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/06/23/the-school-zone-family-home-puzzle/
    Show More Show Less
    47 mins
  • #314: Market Update May 2025 – Darwin Powers On, Melbourne Recovery Continues, All Capitals Rising, Listings & Investor Trends Signal Shift

    #314: Market Update May 2025 – Darwin Powers On, Melbourne Recovery Continues, All Capitals Rising, Listings & Investor Trends Signal Shift
    Jun 16 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    This week, Dave, Mike and Cate tackle the May data. Darwin continues to perform strongly, but Cate eludes to the contrasting data across various data houses. Data integrity and varying methodologies of collecting and collating data may be the source of the issue. The Trio delve into the reliability and variability of data. Could off-market transactions explain the differential? Or is it something more?Hedonic indices and algorithms are another consideration... perhaps a great future episode for the Trio to unpack.

    The revised past month's data provided in the new Cotality reports are interesting too. The Trio reflect on the transparency provided as one data house formalises trends a month on.

    Mike notes that every single capital city delivered growth in the month of May, and the change in dwelling values since last peak is intriguing for those cities which haven't caught up with their last peak.

    Dave steps through the monthly pace of rent for the capital cities. From seasonality to increased supply, the Trio consider the drivers of this recent change in the majority of capital cities. But what's happening in Darwin and Hobart? And why is the rental data so misaligned for houses versus units? Tune in to find out.

    And the Trio tackle some of the counter-intuitive reasons why rental prices are rising in cities like Darwin.

    Mike sets a challenge... can we pick the bottom of the market by referencing the listings data? Combining new listings, all listings, 'old listings' and distressed listings tell us a lot, but without a heavier weight of data points, it is difficult to rely on listing figures in smaller markets like Hobart and Darwin.

    Cate described the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index as anaemic this month. Considering the current global unrest, talk of interest rate cuts and sharemarket uncertainty, the chat isn't what was anticipated. "This chart didn't dance around like I expected it to."

    Major household items recorded the largest change for the month, and Australian household's saving rate goes hand in hand with this figure. The increase of the household savings ratio (5.2%) suggests that additional earnings, (and/or lower interest rates and reduced inflation) is flowing through to households.

    Lending data suggests investor activity has increased in the last year, (citing the March quarter 2024 to 2025).

    In the Northern Territory in particular, investors are spending more. Are they pushing prices higher with greater competition, or are they targeting better quality houses than previous investors have been?

    Bond yields have tracked back, and Dave suggests that global uncertainty, tariffs and the inconsistency in the US administration.

    Unemployment figures have surprised more than a few people too, considering some of the narrative and predictions we've had previously about the likely direction of our employment figures.

    Lastly, Cate marvels at the change in some of our GDP figures since the woes of post-COVID supply chain issues.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/06/16/ep-314-may-2025-market-update/
    Show More Show Less
    49 mins

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