Wondering if you're making the right financial moves? Let's build a strategy you can rely on. Schedule a call with Peter to get professional guidance.

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SpaceX could be one of the most anticipated IPOs since Facebook—and whether it happens this year or years from now, the same IPO dynamics will show up the moment the headlines hit. In this episode, I use explain how IPOs actually work, why the "IPO price" isn't the price most investors can buy, and what tends to happen once trading begins. The goal isn't to talk you out of curiosity—it's to help you keep a long-term plan from getting hijacked by a short-term story.

Listen now and learn:

► The one IPO detail most investors miss—and why it changes how you read every "IPO popped 30%" headline

► How shares really get distributed in a hot IPO, and why access isn't as straightforward as it sounds

► The post-IPO calendar events that can matter more than day one hype

► A simple, portfolio-first way to think about IPOs so your plan doesn't depend on "getting in early"

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Your finances have layers—investments, taxes, planning for the future. If you want a second set of eyes, Peter opened up a few spots for a quick, no-obligation call. Grab yours now.

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If you ever hire help, how do you tell whether you're getting a high-quality advisor? Ranie Verby, Plancorp's Director of Practice Management, joins the show to explain what "financial advisor" can really mean, how to spot a true fiduciary at an RIA, and why the best advice shows up when life gets messy, not when markets are calm.

Listen now and learn:

► The quickest screening questions that reveal whether an advisor is transparent, fiduciary, and actually aligned with you

► The firm-structure red flags that signal thin service, weak continuity, and no real succession plan

► Why "owned outcomes" matter more than portfolio picks when you hit a major life event

► How Plancorp uses behavioral finance and AI to improve the client experience without burning out advisors

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(01:30) How to choose a high-quality financial advisor: fiduciary duty and RIA screening

(04:51) Signs of a great advisor: trust, continuity, and why a team matters

(08:26) Behavioral finance in financial planning: tough conversations, estate planning, and family decisions

(13:44) DIY investing vs hiring an advisor: accountability, decision support, and owned outcomes

(16:29) How Plancorp uses AI in financial planning to save advisor time and improve meetings

(21:49) Advisor burnout and capacity: why it affects client experience and continuity

(26:23) Financial advisor red flags and green flags: team size, succession plan, and relationship fit

(29:08) Integrated financial planning under one roof: investing, taxes, and estate coordination

(32:22) For advisors: how to evaluate your firm and build a sustainable advisory career

(36:20) Choosing a financial advisor: fiduciary in writing and meet the full team

(37:08) Where to follow Ranie Verby

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

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AI is turning into a real capital cycle, with trillions of dollars of infrastructure and investment flowing into the buildout. That economic story matters, but it doesn't automatically translate into easy stock-market winners. In this episode, I walk through a simple way to think about AI exposure inside a long-term portfolio without letting a powerful narrative push you into a concentrated bet.

Listen now and learn:

► Why the "AI is real" story can be true even when the market feels messy

► The hidden trap that turns big technological shifts into disappointing investment outcomes

► A practical framework for thinking about AI exposure that doesn't require picking the long-term winners

► How to pressure-test your portfolio so AI excitement doesn't break your plan when conditions change

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

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In this episode, Peter sits down with Vanguard's Kevin DiCiurcio to unpack how Vanguard thinks about long-term return forecasts—and why the percentiles in those tables are the part most investors misunderstand. They go behind the scenes of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM), and translate what it's really saying into practical guidance for planning and portfolio decisions.

Listen now and learn:

► How Vanguard builds and governs its capital markets model—and what it's designed to do (and not do)

► A simple way to interpret percentiles without turning them into predictions

► What changes when you shift from a 10-year lens to a 30-year lens

► The key portfolio implications Kevin thinks long-term investors should be paying attention to

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(00:00) Introduction

(02:16) What the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) Is—and Why Return Assumptions Matter

(04:04) How Vanguard Wants Investors to Use VCMM: Expectations, Risk Trade-Offs, and Smarter Allocation Decisions

(09:27) How Vanguard Builds the Forecasts—and the Capital Market Assumption Approaches They Didn't Rely on Alone

(15:08) How to Read Percentiles, 10-Year vs 30-Year Forecasts, and What Vanguard Likes Most Right Now

(29:21) The Performance-Chasing Problem: When Investors Suddenly Want More International Again

(30:05) AI, Mega Trends, and Three Scenarios: Why Economic Upside Doesn't Guarantee Stock Market Upside

(34:31) Geopolitics and Markets: Why It's Not a Direct Forecast Input, But Still Shapes Long-Term Premia

(37:48) The 2026 Signposts: What Would Actually Change Vanguard's Conviction and Move the Outlook

(39:32) What Vanguard's Capital Markets Research Team Is Focused on Next—and Why Ranges Beat False Precision

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

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Ever wondered where your retirement plan's "probability of success" really comes from? In this episode, Peter pulls back the curtain on the assumptions inside Monte Carlo analysis—and explains why Plancorp anchors its projections to long-term base rates instead of short-term forecasts.

Listen now and learn:

► The three numbers that quietly drive most Monte Carlo projections

► The four common ways advisors choose capital market assumptions—and why they differ

► Why "more sophisticated" assumptions can sometimes create more error, not less

► How to think about your plan's probability of success without getting lost in the math

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

Get an inside look at what's shaping my thinking. Bi-weekly, I share the top 5 investing and financial planning articles I'm reading—straight to your inbox. Sign up for my newsletter.

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Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins me for a wide-ranging conversation about what actually matters for long-term investors heading into 2026. We get past the headline forecasts and into how a seasoned strategist interprets markets in real time—without falling into the traps that trip up most investors.

Listen now and learn:

► Why "forecasts" can be useful even when you're not making price targets—and how to use them the right way

► A clearer way to think about what really drove market returns in 2025 (and what many investors missed)

► What to pay attention to with the Fed in 2026, and what's mostly just noise

► A grounded framework for thinking about the U.S. dollar, national debt, and the long-term investor's edge

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

(03:00) Why Schwab Won't Do Year-End Targets

(08:23) How Liz Ann Builds an Outlook: cycles, quadrants, and "better or worse" vs. "good or bad"
(13:33) 2025's Biggest Investor Lesson
(16:48) The Magnificent Seven Misconception: contribution ≠ performance
(21:05) The 2026 Outlook
(26:09) The Federal Reserve, Rate Cuts, and a New Fed Chair: why the "C" in FOMC matters
(31:39) The US Dollar and Reserve Currency Fears: "there's no replacement for it"
(35:19) US National Debt: not a default story, but a long-term "wet blanket on growth"

(43:02) Long-Term Investing vs. Gambling: owning vs. hoping, and why "get in/get out" isn't a strategy

(47:22) How Liz Ann Sonders Invests Her Own Money
(50:16) What's Different Now: post-COVID sentiment, the retail trader, and why psychology got harder
(52:55) Where to Find Liz Ann's Research

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

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In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Rubin Miller for an unscripted conversation about why market forecasts fail, how advisors actually set return assumptions, and where investors most often misunderstand risk. We move freely from prediction season and capital market assumptions to investor behavior, bonds, and cash—focusing less on what markets will do next and more on how to build a plan you can stick with when narratives get loud.

Listen and learn:

► Why short-term market predictions distract from what really drives long-term outcomes

► How ranges and probabilities lead to better financial plans than point forecasts

► What most investors get wrong about bonds, cash, and "playing it safe"

► Why the biggest investing mistakes come from narratives, not numbers

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

[02:00] – Market Forecasting and "Prediction Season": Why One-Year Outlooks Mislead

[03:10] – Financial Planning Return Assumptions: Using Ranges and Probabilities (Not Point Estimates)

[06:41] – Portfolio Construction Basics: Stocks Are Stocks, Bonds Are Tools

[15:56] – Setting Investor Expectations: What Forecasts Can and Can't Do

[21:01] – Behavioral Finance in Real Time: Volatility vs the Narrative Investors Fear

[23:45] – Market Timing Bias: "I Knew This Would Happen" and Why It's Dangerous

[29:39] – Risk Management: Probability vs Magnitude (How Investors Blow Up a Good Plan)

[32:21] – Bond Strategy: Building a Portfolio You Can Stick With (Not the Highest Return)

[38:30] – Cash Management: Ultra-Short Bond Funds, HYSAs, and the 2022 Hangover

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠)

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.

You don't have time to sift through endless financial content. That's why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter.

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In this Talking Shop episode, I sit down with Ashby Daniels for an unscripted, behind-the-scenes conversation about investing, markets, and the behavioral mistakes that quietly derail long-term results. We move freely—from why simplicity keeps winning, to how investors misread risk, to what actually matters when markets feel noisy—without a single hot take in sight. If you've ever wondered how two investment professionals talk when there's no agenda and no sales pitch, this is it.

Listen now and learn:

► Why "beating the game" in investing rarely looks like working harder or knowing more

► How narratives—not numbers—drive most investor mistakes during market downturns

► What gets misunderstood about bonds, diversification, and "playing it safe"

► How experienced investors think differently about wealth, risk, and time

Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

[04:15] – Nick Murray's Lasting Influence on Long-Term Investing and Market Thinking

[05:45] – Why Investing Education Should Be Short, Simple, and Actionable

[08:00] – Challenging Conventional Market Wisdom: Why Time Beats Tactics

[09:45] – The Dave & Buster's Investing Lesson: How to "Beat the Game"

[15:30] – Everybody Ought to Be Rich: The Power of Long-Term Stock Market Returns

[18:30] – The Market Portfolio Explained: Stocks, Bonds, and Investor Distractions

[21:15] – Market Corrections and Bear Markets: Why Trees Don't Grow to the Sky

[24:30] – All-Stock Portfolios and Risk: When Equities Make Sense

[29:45] – Investor Panic Isn't About Volatility—It's About Stories and Expectations

[32:45] – Bond Investing, "Safety," and the Hidden Risk to Purchasing Power

[35:45] – Private Equity, Gold, and Crypto: What Investors Get Wrong

[41:30] – The $100 Million Thought Experiment: Getting Wealthy vs Staying Wealthy

[46:00] – Why Timeless Investing Principles Still Win Over Time

Disclosure: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this "post" (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Please see disclosures here.