There's been a lot of discussion in recent years about the financial health of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Critics contend the BRI became overstretched, bankrupting borrowers and straining creditors suffering from a weakening Chinese economy.

Even the Chinese government sought to reframe the BRI with its "small yet beautiful" tagline to reflect a new era of purported austerity.

And while all of that was certainly true when it comes to state-backed Chinese entities that used to be at the forefront of the BRI, new data from Griffith University in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University reveals that Chinese private enterprises are now leading the way.

Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, joins Eric to review the 2025 BRI data and explain what led to a record year of BRI engagement around the world.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• China's Belt and Road investment surge in 2025
• Why the BRI narrative of decline no longer holds
• Africa's return as a top destination for Chinese investment
• The rise of fossil fuel projects alongside green energy
• How geopolitics and US trade policy shape BRI decisions
• The growing role of Chinese private companies overseas
• What the latest BRI data signals for the years ahead

Show Notes:

• Green Finance and Development Center: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025
• Financial Times: Beijing pours cash into Belt and Road financing in global resources grab by Edward White
• The Economist: China's Belt and Road Initiative is booming again

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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

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As debate intensifies over the unraveling of the U.S.-led international order, sparked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark remarks at Davos, small states are being forced to rethink how they survive and advance in an increasingly fragmented global system.

Carney captured the anxiety shared by many global leaders when he bluntly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over.

In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric is joined by Sagar Prasai, an independent advisor to international development agencies, and Mandakini D. Surie, an independent development consultant with over two decades of experience across governments, NGOs, and think tanks. The discussion draws on their recent report examining how small states in South Asia are navigating a rapidly emerging multipolar world shaped in part by China's expanding role.

Building on their research, Prasai and Surie unpack the strategic calculations unfolding across Asia—dynamics that closely mirror the pressures facing smaller and developing countries across the Global South as they adapt to a shifting balance of power.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• Decline of the U.S.-led international order
• Small states' strategies in a multipolar world
• China's growing influence in South Asia
• Hedging, alignment, and strategic autonomy
• Lessons for the wider Global South

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

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The collapse of the post-war international system now underway will have a disproportionate impact on African countries that rely heavily on multilateral bodies like the UN. Beyond a pull-back of aid and humanitarian assistance, African countries must also contend with an increasingly hostile United States.

Dozens of African countries have been targeted by the Trump administration for visa restrictions, trade sanctions, and regularly denigrated by the president himself. At the same time, U.S. diplomats across the continent were ordered by the State Department in January to remind African governments to express more gratitude to the U.S. for its "generosity."

Judd Devermont, the former top Africa strategist at the White House during the Biden administration and now an operating partner at Kupanda Capital in Washington, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the future of U.S.-Africa relations and China's expanding presence on the continent.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• China's sharp drop in Africa lending and what it signals
• Why big Chinese infrastructure projects are fading
• U.S. Africa relations after USAID and PEPFAR cuts
• The leaked State Department email and Africa as a "peripheral" priority
• America's collapsing credibility in Africa and beyond
• Why China is seen as an opportunity, not an ally
• Critical minerals and the limits of extractive diplomacy
• What the shifting U.S.-China-Africa balance means next

Show Notes:

• Post Strategy: On China by Judd Devermont
• The Guardian: Head of US Africa bureau urges staff to highlight US 'generosity' despite aid cuts by Aisha Down
• China Power Project: US-China-Africa Relations: A View from Africa by Lina Benabdallah

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week will likely be remembered as one of the most significant orations of the early 21st century. Carney channeled the fear and frustration of many global leaders when he defiantly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over.

The "rupture" that Carney referenced in his address has profound consequences for China as it moves to reshape a part of this new international order to better align with its interests.

Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior research scholar at Columbia University, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why this is such a pivotal time for China as it moves to become a peer power of the United States, at least economically, without triggering the so-called "Thuycides Trap" that dictates this kind of rivalry often leads to war.

Show Notes:

• Foreign Affairs: China's Long Economic War — How Beijing Builds Leverage for Indefinite Competition by Zongyuan Zoe Liu

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• Mark Carney's Davos speech and the declaration of a global rupture
• The collapse of the rules-based international order
• What a post-American world looks like for middle powers
• Economic coercion and the weaponization of supply chains
• Where China fits in the new global order
• China's long economic war and leverage strategy
• The Global South's trust gap with China
• Why the debt trap narrative persists despite evidence
• China as an opportunity rather than ally in emerging markets
• The rapid erosion of U.S. global credibility

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque

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YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

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China was among the first and most vocal opponents of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro. Curiously, though, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to launch military strikes against Iran as Tehran dealt with a massive popular uprising, China was largely silent.

Both Venezuela and Iran have high-level strategic partnerships with China, yet the Chinese leadership's responses to the crises in each country are radically different.

William (Bill) Figueroa, a leading China-Iran scholar and an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to discuss his latest CGSP column, which explains Beijing's low-key response and why the strategy is often misunderstood by many U.S. and European stakeholders.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• Why Iran's latest protests are more serious than past unrest
• How the crackdown escalated and what makes it unprecedented
• U.S. regime-change talk and the "boxing in China" narrative
• China's real exposure to Iranian and Venezuelan oil
• Debunking the myth of a deep, all-weather China–Iran alliance
• Why Beijing stayed quiet on Iran but reacted strongly on Venezuela
• Hard power limits and why China won't intervene militarily
• The quiet influence China already exerts behind the scenes

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander |

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In this special bonus episode, Eric speaks with Kaiser Kuo, host of the popular Sinica Podcast, about China's response to the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.

Many U.S. and European analysts have framed Maduro's downfall as a "setback" or even an "embarrassment" for Beijing, but while that may be true, Eric argues that it's also premature to make such declarations less than a week after Maduro's downfall. After all, U.S.-led military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya all started well but ended up being very costly failures for Washington.

📌 Topics covered include:

• China's reaction to Maduro's detention
• Why "China setback" claims may be premature
• Beijing's messaging vs. Chinese social media
• Why Venezuela ≠ Taiwan
• China's economic exposure in Venezuela
• The rise and fall of oil-backed loans
• What "all-weather partnership" really means
• Panama Canal risks for China
• Limits of U.S. hemispheric leverage
• China's Latin America knowledge gap
• Beijing's coup-response playbook
• Military lessons—and misreadings
• Instability as a threat to China's trade model
• What signals to watch next

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

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In this special year-end edition of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud look back on the top stories of 2025 and look ahead to the key trend to watch in 2026.

📌 Topics covered include:

• Simandou goes online (Guinea) and the iron ore geopolitics shift
• Zambia's Kafue River spill and the China narrative battle
• China's manufacturing push, overcapacity, and export pressures
• Soybeans and South America's growing leverage in U.S.–China trade
• China–India détente and what it changes (and doesn't)
• G20 turbulence around South Africa and global governance fractures
• 2026 outlook: Southeast Asia rivalry, Zimbabwe lithium value-add, Senegal hidden debt

Show Notes:

• The Financial Times: The American company seeking to counter China in Africa by David Pilling and Leslie Hook
• Foreign Policy: China's Appetite for Rosewood Is Causing Chaos in Africa by Joshua Eisenman and Caroline Costello
• Environmental Investigation Agency: New Report Finds That Home Depot Sold Illegally Sourced Tropical Wood for Years

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud

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Join us Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth