President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week hoping China could help contain the escalating U.S.-Iran crisis, but the summit underscored how limited Beijing's influence over Tehran actually is.

In Washington, many policymakers assume China can pressure Iran because it buys the vast majority of Iranian oil. But the reality is far more complicated, and there is little evidence the Iranian leadership would make major national security concessions at Beijing's request.

William Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to unpack what U.S. officials misunderstand about China's relationship with Iran, why Beijing is reluctant to use its economic leverage aggressively, and how China itself is vulnerable to the broader economic fallout from the war.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Why Trump wanted China's help on Iran
• The limits of China's leverage over Tehran
• How Iran views Beijing and Washington differently
• Why oil is only part of China's concern
• The economic risks of a prolonged war
• What the Trump-Xi summit revealed about global power dynamics

Show Notes:

• The China-Global South Project: China and the Iran War: The Logic and Limitations of China's Middle East Diplomacy by William Figuerora
• The China-Global South Project: Through Allegory, China Uses AI to Shape Its Narrative of the Iran Conflict by William Figuerora
• The China-Global South Project: Social Media Commentators Are Misreading the China Angle in the U.S.–Israeli War With Iran by William Figuerora

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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

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When Panama's Supreme Court ruled that Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison's operation of two ports on either side of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional, President Jose Raul Mulina said at the time that he wasn't too concerned about China retaliating.

Now, several months later, Mulina and other Panamanian officials are becoming increasingly concerned that this is precisely what's happening after China detained dozens of Panamanian-flagged vessels or "inspections." Separately, China called on the two shipping companies, Maersk and MSC, slated to take over operations of the Panamanian ports vacated by CK Hutchison, to reconsider — insinuating there could be severe consequences if they don't comply.

Pedro Armada, managing partner at Armada Risk Consulting, is following the events closely from Panama City and joins Eric to discuss the increasingly difficult position the government finds itself in between the U.S. and an increasingly assertive China.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• China's response to Panama's port ruling
• Rising tensions around the Panama Canal
• Delays targeting Panamanian-flagged ships
• U.S. pressure on Chinese influence
• Maersk and MSC caught in the middle
• The bigger U.S.-China rivalry

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The U.S. created the post-World War II international order that it no longer wants to lead today. But what replaces it is still unknown. So, in the meantime, small and medium-sized countries, so-called "middle powers," are scrambling to form new partnerships to insulate themselves from the inevitable instability that will arise from this transition.

We're seeing this play out daily now as leaders from South Africa, Brazil, Australia, Vietnam, Japan, and dozens of other countries crisscross the globe at a frenetic pace to build what many are describing as a new middle-power coalition.

But Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute, argued in a Foreign Policy column that it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, for a coalition like this to succeed. Sarang joins Eric to explain why divergent north-south interests will be very hard to overcome.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Rapid global realignment among middle powers
• Declining trust in U.S.-led institutions
• BRICS and alternative power coalitions
• China's growing Global South influence
• Transactional diplomacy and diversification
• What the next world order may look like

Show Notes:

• Foreign Policy: Can Middle Powers Gel? by Sarang Shidore
• The New York Times: American Supremacy Is Over, and Something New Is Coming by Sarang Shidore
• Politico: Trump Is Demolishing the Global Order. Here's What Might Come Next.

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U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Asia next week for a highly anticipated summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Trump will be returning to a region he's personally transformed through his challenges to the international order, tariffs, and now the Iran war that's hit Asia's energy sector especially hard.

The U.S.-led security architecture across the Asia-Pacific is also showing signs of real strain, as alliances fray and the institutions set up to counter China are on the verge of collapse.

Derek Grossman, a prominent U.S.-Asia scholar at the University of Southern California and CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Asia-Pacific, argues that the Quad security partnership is now "on the brink of extinction." Derek joins Eric to discuss how 18 months of Trump's foreign policy have reshaped Asia's security landscape.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

1. Trump-Xi summit and the future of U.S.-China relations
2. Taiwan tensions and fears over U.S. security commitments
3. The possible collapse of the Quad alliance strategy
4. How Southeast Asian countries are balancing China and the U.S.
5. China's growing influence in Indonesia, Thailand, and ASEAN
6. Why Asian allies are questioning America's long-term role

Show Notes:

• The China-Global South Project: The Asia-Pacific's New Oil Order by Derek Grossman
• Foreign Policy: Trump's Southeast Asia Trade Deals Are in Limbo by Derek Grossman
• Hinrich Foundation: Balancing act or breaking point? Indonesia's trade policy amid US-China rivalry by Derek Grossman

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Ties between China and Vietnam appear to be improving across every front. Vietnam is selling more to China, while China is investing more in its southern neighbor. Even on thorny territorial issues in the South China Sea, the two sides said they're talking through their differences.

And last month, Vietnamese leader To Lam traveled to China in his capacity as both General Secretary of the Communist Party and President of the country, a model many say was inspired by the Chinese political structure.

All of this has prompted discussion among some Vietnamese analysts that Hanoi is swinging in Beijing's direction.

But Khang Vu, a visiting scholar in Vietnamese political science at Boston College, strongly disagrees. Khang joins Eric to discuss why Hanoi's longstanding commitment to non-alignment among the major powers remains the bedrock of Vietnamese foreign policy.

Show Notes:

• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction by Nguyen Khac Giang
• The Diplomat: The Myth of Vietnam's Tilt Toward China by Khang Vu
• The Diplomat: Interpreting the Future of Vietnam-China Relations Through the 2026 Joint Statement by Hai Hong Nguyen and Vu Quy Son

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Vietnam–China relations: perception vs. reality
• The "Four No's" and non-aligned foreign policy
• Tho Lam's Beijing visit and key takeaways
• South China Sea tensions and regional dynamics
• Tech, trade, and Huawei: strategic hedging
• Navigating U.S.–China rivalry and global pressure

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Sales of Chinese renewable energy products surged to record highs in March in response to the disruption of oil and gas supplies brought on by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

Shipments of Chinese-made electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels all surged as countries and consumers around the world are moving quickly to insulate themselves from the worsening oil shocks.

Tim McDonell, climate and energy editor at the online news site Semafor, joins Eric to explain how China has spent the past 40 years preparing for what's happening in today's energy market.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Impact of the Iran war on global energy markets
• Southeast Asia's vulnerability to fossil fuel disruptions
• Surge in Chinese clean energy exports and technology
• Energy security shifting from economics to national defense
• Risks of dependence on Chinese energy supply chains
• U.S.–China competition in the future of energy systems

Show Notes:

• Semafor: China's winning energy strategy by Tim McDonell
• Semafor: US top fusion CEO says Washington losing race to China by Tim McDonell

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The development finance industry would like us to believe that money for infrastructure, education, and other needs goes to where it's needed most. The reality, though, isn't that simple. Politics, it turns out, plays a much more important role than many would like to admit.

Keyi Tang, an assistant professor at ESADE Business School in Spain, studied development finance data on 48 African countries over a 20-year period that revealed that money often flows to those who hold influence rather than to those who need it most.

Keyi joins Eric to discuss the findings that she recently published in her new book, "Power Over Progress: How Politics Shape Development Finance in Africa."

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Political forces shaping development finance
• How China compares to Western lenders
• Why aid often favors politically strategic regions
• The role of domestic elections and power dynamics
• Structural inequalities in the global finance system
• The rise of borrower coordination efforts
• Impact of shrinking Western and Chinese funding
• How civil society can drive accountability

Show Notes:

• Cambridge University Press: Power Over Progress: How Politics Shape Development Finance in Africa by Keyi Tang: https://a.co/d/04Oc87sf

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