Listen in on many of the foreign policy discussions about Vietnam that take place at think tanks and government seminars in Washington, D.C., and you'll hear this sense of optimism that "Hanoi is on our side." They see Vietnam's historical suspicions of China and the country's ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea as key indicators that Hanoi will eventually join a U.S.-led coalition to counter China.

Those presumptions, however, are wrong, according to Khang Vu, a leading Vietnamese political scientist and visiting scholar at Boston College. Khang joins Eric to explain why the U.S. is overestimating its military and trade leverage with Vietnam.

SHOW NOTES:

• The Diplomat: Why Vietnam Will Not Balance Against China by Khang Vu
• The Diplomat: Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Change the Trajectory of Vietnam’s Foreign Policy by Khang Vu
• The Diplomat: With China Visit, Vietnam’s To Lam Reinforces Bilateral Political Trust by Khang Vu

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There was widespread disappointment in Iran that China didn't do more to help Tehran during the recent 12-day war with Israel and the United States. Beijing, for its part, offered robust rhetorical and moral support, but little else.

The calculus for Chinese policymakers is that Iran just isn't as strategically important to its foreign policy as other countries in the region, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and a leading expert on Sino-Persian Gulf relations, joins Eric to discuss his new book that explains China's rapidly expanding portfolio of interests in the region and why Iran, in particular, is not among Beijing's top priorities.

SHOW NOTES:

• Amazon.com: Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China's Middle East Math by Jonathan Fulton
• China-MENA Newsletter: The myth of China's leverage in Iran by Jonathan Fulton
• Bloomberg: Israel Urges China to Pressure Iran to Rein In Nuclear Ambitions

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In the first few months of this year, it seemed that China's ties with Israel were on the mend after entering into a deep freeze following the October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas. China had begun to soften some of its rhetoric, and Israeli officials were keen to re-engage Beijing on economic issues.

That momentum stalled in mid-June, though, when Israel launched an attack on Iran that prompted a strong rebuke by China at the United Nations. Now that the fighting has stopped and a tense ceasefire appears to be holding, there are indications both countries may be ready to re-engage one another.

Gedaliah Afterman, a prominent Israeli China scholar and head of the Asia-Israel policy program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations, joins Eric to discuss Beijing's standing in the region after the war and what the prospects are for closer ties between Israel and China.

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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

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