History is littered with missed calls and downright bad predictions. Think Arab Spring, the post-2003 occupation of Iraq, the Sino-Soviet split, the fall of the USSR, Operation Barbarossa and the assumption that engagement with China would mean liberalisation.

Futurist Florence Gaub’s job is to help NATO make sure it isn’t caught like a deer in headlights when events take an unexpected turn.

In today’s episode, Florence, who directs the research division at the NATO Defense College, explains how she and her team consider the “what if” events that could throw NATO’s strategic plans into disarray. She talks about the science of forecasting, the enormous complexity of geopolitics, the value of being prepared, and communicating with decision-makers.

Florence reflects on forecasts that have proven useful, the value of science fiction in forecasting, the role of powerful individuals in history, major trends shaping the world today, and the value of diverse cultures, personalities and perspectives in a forecasting team.

This week, Australia made international headlines when it revealed Iran had directed at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia using local criminals as proxies. In response, the Australian Government expelled Iran’s Ambassador, the first time we have done so since World War Two.

While this sort of activity is new for Australia, it fits a growing pattern in Europe where Russia and to some extent Iran have been using this tactic of hiring what are in effect gig workers to carry out such sabotage operations against other countries.

To discuss hybrid threat activities and explain this tactic of using disposable agents, David Wroe speaks to Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Elisabeth details the methods of sabotage, the purposes of sabotage to interfere in other countries and their politics and the enabling role of technology in these activities.

Donald Trump met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, then with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, then with a posse of European leaders who joined Zelenskyy as back up. Everyone was polite to one another, but as Russia expert Mark Galeotti reminds us on today’s episode, there were a lot of questions left unanswered.

Mark, who hosts the popular podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows, says the best thing about the string of meetings over recent days was that it might kick start the hard work of proper, behind-the-scenes detailed negotiations, without which meetings of leaders aren’t going to advance the peace process. He talks through all the key issues, including the talk of a temporary ceasefire, the difficulties of security guarantees—particularly a European “coalition of the willing” with boots on the ground—the prospects for further sanctions on Russia, Russia’s broader intentions towards Europe, Putin’s own challenges at home, and the need ultimately for Ukraine to build up its own defence industrial base, and sustain a long-term military force that can protect the nation without massive international support.

Mark is the author of Putin’s Wars, The Weaponisation of Everything, We Need To Talk About Putin and his latest book, Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World.

Donald Trump famously called him “little rocket man”. Xi Jinping just thinks he’s a punk. But North Korea’s delphic leader Kim Jong-un has played a savvy hand and brought his country back from the ruinous Covid era to put himself in a strong position through his deals with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Anna Fifield, long-time foreign correspondent and North Korea-watcher who is now the Washington Post’s Asia Editor, explains the Kim’s strategic cunning, his relations with Moscow and Beijing, the state of the country for its tyrannised people and its bizarre two-track economy. She also talks about public positioning of his ‘tweenage daughter Kim Ju-ae as part of a possible succession plan, the reality that North Korea has consolidated itself as a nuclear weapons power, and what the failure of Donald Trump’s first-term nuclear negotiations with Kim portends for Trump’s coming talks with Putin on Ukraine.

Anna is the author of The Great Successor: The Divinely Perfect Destiny of Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong Un.

Britain’s 2018 “fusion doctrine” was an effort to bring together the elements of national power to enhance the country’s security and strategic interests under the post-Brexit “global Britain”.

Its architect, Lord Mark Sedwill, is today’s guest. He assesses the key global trends, challenges and crises—Donald Trump’s second administration; Chinese assertiveness; Russia’s war on Ukraine and the unfolding tragedy in Gaza—and talks about what a fusion doctrine might look like for 2025, including the dynamic elements of rapid technology advances and turmoil in international trade.

Mark held the dual roles of national security adviser and cabinet secretary—or the head of the UK civil service—under Prime Ministers Theresa May and Boris Johnson. He’s previously served as UK ambassador to Afghanistan, the NATO senior civilian representative in Afghanistan and the head of the Home Office. He’s now a Member of the UK House of Lords and chair of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies.

In this special episode, ASPI's Resident Technical Specialist, Jocelinn Kang, talks through hyperscale cloud and why it’s increasingly important for countries to get their policies right depending on their strategic circumstances. All countries want to protect their citizens’ data and have some sovereign computing capabilities, but what if your data centres are attacked? What if the undersea cables connecting you to the world are cut?

Is there a sweet spot between building at home and outsourcing to the hyperscale firms—the big tech firms such as Microsoft, Google, AWS, Meta and Oracle? What does it mean for a country’s innovation strength and its ability to digitise its state, its society and its economy? These are important questions around the world, but nowhere more than in the Indo-Pacific region. This episode draws on work ASPI has done with support from Microsoft.

Today we speak with China military scholar Elsa B. Kania about China’s military modernisation. How good is the People’s Liberation Army? Where has it progressed? Where is it still deficient? And the big ones: can it match the US and how ready is it to take Taiwan by force if Xi Jinping gives the order?

Much of Elsa’s recent work has focussed on the role of technology in the PLA’s capabilities, doctrine and command structure. She talks about the role of artificial intelligence, the concepts of informatisation and intelligentisation, and the Chinese view of the ethics of automating lethal force. She also talks about China’s military rehearsals around Taiwan, its concept of “peace disease”, and China’s overall strategy with its growing military assertiveness.

Elsa is a PhD candidate in Harvard University's Department of Government, where she’s just recently defended her dissertation, "China's Command Revolution." Her research focuses on China's military strategy, defense innovation, and emerging capabilities. She is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Center for a New American Security's Technology and National Security Program, and she was also a Fulbright Specialist and Non-Resident Fellow with the International Cyber Policy Centre at ASPI.

Julia Ebner is a leading researcher in the area of extremism, radicalisation and conspiracy theories. She’s spent time undercover among incels, anti-vaxxers and neo-nazis, and combines this brave reportage with a deep understanding of politics.

In today’s episode, Julia explains the unsettling trend of kooky and dangerous ideas making their way into the political mainstream, as fringe ideas are repackaged as successful populist weapons. She talks about conspiracy theories such as QAnon, the idea of “identity fusion” which brings together people with a wide range of anti-establishment grievances, the psychology behind conspiracy myths, the anxieties that modern society creates, and the state of US politics.

Finally she talks solutions, promoting four elegant principles of “critical thinking, lateral reading, self awareness and emotional intelligence” — a useful lesson for us all.