History is littered with missed calls and downright bad predictions. Think Arab Spring, the post-2003 occupation of Iraq, the Sino-Soviet split, the fall of the USSR, Operation Barbarossa and the assumption that engagement with China would mean liberalisation.

Futurist Florence Gaub’s job is to help NATO make sure it isn’t caught like a deer in headlights when events take an unexpected turn.

In today’s episode, Florence, who directs the research division at the NATO Defense College, explains how she and her team consider the “what if” events that could throw NATO’s strategic plans into disarray. She talks about the science of forecasting, the enormous complexity of geopolitics, the value of being prepared, and communicating with decision-makers.

Florence reflects on forecasts that have proven useful, the value of science fiction in forecasting, the role of powerful individuals in history, major trends shaping the world today, and the value of diverse cultures, personalities and perspectives in a forecasting team.

This week, Australia made international headlines when it revealed Iran had directed at least two antisemitic attacks in Australia using local criminals as proxies. In response, the Australian Government expelled Iran’s Ambassador, the first time we have done so since World War Two.

While this sort of activity is new for Australia, it fits a growing pattern in Europe where Russia and to some extent Iran have been using this tactic of hiring what are in effect gig workers to carry out such sabotage operations against other countries.

To discuss hybrid threat activities and explain this tactic of using disposable agents, David Wroe speaks to Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Elisabeth details the methods of sabotage, the purposes of sabotage to interfere in other countries and their politics and the enabling role of technology in these activities.

Donald Trump met with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, then with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, then with a posse of European leaders who joined Zelenskyy as back up. Everyone was polite to one another, but as Russia expert Mark Galeotti reminds us on today’s episode, there were a lot of questions left unanswered.

Mark, who hosts the popular podcast, In Moscow’s Shadows, says the best thing about the string of meetings over recent days was that it might kick start the hard work of proper, behind-the-scenes detailed negotiations, without which meetings of leaders aren’t going to advance the peace process. He talks through all the key issues, including the talk of a temporary ceasefire, the difficulties of security guarantees—particularly a European “coalition of the willing” with boots on the ground—the prospects for further sanctions on Russia, Russia’s broader intentions towards Europe, Putin’s own challenges at home, and the need ultimately for Ukraine to build up its own defence industrial base, and sustain a long-term military force that can protect the nation without massive international support.

Mark is the author of Putin’s Wars, The Weaponisation of Everything, We Need To Talk About Putin and his latest book, Homo Criminalis: How Crime Organises the World.