Thursday 27th November 2025

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Three central banks close to the end of their easing cycle. A hawkish cut from the RBNZ yesterday could well be the last. The same could well apply to the RBA after yesterday’s monthly CPI came in higher than anticipated. But the Bank of England might well be ready to cut, as markets accepted more fiscal headroom and a reduction to the supply of 30-year gilts. The public response is less jubilant, particularly as the freeze on tax thresholds is not being extended to a 10-year run. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a busy day.

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Tuesday 25th November 2025

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It might be thanksgiving this week, but it seems tech investors have their eyes set closer to Christmas, with renewed hopes of a December rate cut. Words from Christopher Waller added to the hope. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the moves in shares is quite a remarkable sensitivity, which has not been reflected in bonds or currencies. The Aussie hasn’t seen its usual bounce as US sentiment picks up. Delayed (and out of date) data today includes US retail sales and PPIs

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Thursday 20th November 2025

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Last week was a bad one for US equities and the Australian dollar. It was even worse for Bitcoin, but NAB’s Skye Masters says it recovered over the weekend, so if you believe it’s a bellwether for equities this week could get off to a better start. Equities had already climbed on Friday as the Fed’s John Williams talked up the chance of a rate cut in December. It’s a relatively quiet week, with the US off for Thanksgiving. Locally the RBNZ meets and Australian CPI is released.

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Friday 14th November 2025

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NAB’s biennial Super Insights Survey was published this week, co-authored by Morning Call regulars Ray Attrill and Rodrigo Catril. They join Phil on this week’s podcast to talk about it, alongside Mike Symonds, the director of NAB’s Currency Overlay Solutions Group.

One key takeout of the survey is that Australian super funds now invest more overseas than they do domestically and that ratio will increase over time. On the podcast we look at where that money is going, and the impact President Trump’s agenda has had. What are the key thematics that are influencing investment decisions? How much are funds hedging back to the Australian dollar, and how do they manage liquidity in these turbulent times?

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Thursday 20th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer

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What do equity markets want? NVIDIA yesterday delivered strong earnings and talked up the opportunity. ‘We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI’, their CEO said yesterday. After some initial enthusiasm, US shares fell today, including a 1.5% drop in NVIDIA’s price. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the caution in equities as well as deciphering a mix of jobs data, including the not-so-monthly on-farm payrolls, and a dump of weekly jobless claims. However you decipher those numbers it seems markets are increasingly expecting no move form the Fed in December. Today is PMIs day - a chance to see the comparative strengths of the US, Europe and UK.

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