Thursday 9th October 2025

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The Fed minutes are out, and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to peruse the 40 pages to see what prompted the decision to cut rates, even though there were concerns over rising inflation. They also discuss RBNZ’s big cut yesterday, with more to come. And they look at gold, which pushed higher, even against a stronger US dollar. Ray puts it down to a lack of choices when it comes to stable currency investments. The Yen, for example, is getting weaker and Europe is being hit with more weak economic data.

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Wednesday 8th October 2025

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The US shutdown continues with no end in sight, just a threat from the President not to pay back salary to some furloughed workers, and the prospect of layoffs just days away. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest news and data, including the NY Fed survey that shows consumer inflation expectations have lifted. At home, consumer sentiment fell for the second time in a row yesterday, and the NZ quarterly survey of business optimism didn’t help determine whether the RBNZ will lean to a 25bp or 50bp cut today. It’s still too close to call.

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Tuesday 7th October 2025

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It’s been a session light on data but heavy on geopolitics. Markets reacted firmly as expected, to the surprise win for Sane Takaichi as leader of Japan’s LDP. The resignation of the French Prime Minister yesterday was also a surprise, sending yields higher and a big fall in equities. US equities, meanwhile, continue to rise, including a surge in the price of OpenAI after a data-centre deal with AMD. It added $80 billion to the value of OpenAI and raised flags for those worried about the potential for a tech-bubble. And the US government shutdown moves into day seven. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through a session light on data and heavy on news.

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Monday 6th October 2025

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Sanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership vote in Japan on Saturday, so is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister. She’s a known supporter of Abenomics, so could its resurgence mean a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is less likely. ‘Yes!’ is the quick answer from NAB’s Taylor Nugent., so what does that mean for bond yields, equities and the Yen today? The other weekend surprise was OPEC+ decision to lift production. We knew it was coming but the size of the increase is well below what many were expecting. Phil ad Taylor also discuss Friday’s ISM data from the US and look ahead to a very quiet week, politics aside. And the RBNZ, of course.

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Friday 3rd October 2025

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NAB CEO Andrew Irvine returns to the Morning Call to answer your questions. Hear his views on Australia’s investment opportunity from Asia and what he’s doing to make NAB stand out for customers. ‘We have no God-given right to be here’, he says.

Phil also relays some pointed questions from listeners; the danger of job losses from AI, NAB’s involvement in a fraudulent loan scandal, pursuing an ESG agenda when the American President believes climate change is a scam, plus the risk of rising global debt, both private and public.

Listen in for some frank discussion on The Weekend Edition.

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Friday 3rd October 2025

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With no non-farm payrolls out in the US today, and no jobless claims numbers last night, attention turns to private data, of which the Challenger jobs survey is one of the more credible reports. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the overnight data supports the idea of a low hiring, low firing economy, although it did also highlight the extent of the DOGE cuts on government workers. There could be many more of those soon as the US President threatens to cut jobs in departments and agencies that do not support his agenda. The Australian economy looks in good shape with household spending rising, although the rate of growth has slowed. And the RBA financial stability review shows households are building up savings, with an increasing buffer for mortgage repayments.

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Thursday 2nd October 2025

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Markets will have to feel their way through the next few weeks, because with the US government shutdown means there’s an absence of key government data. No weekly jobless claims today, and no non-farms payrolls tomorrow. Betting suggests it will last longer than two weeks. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market reaction and the implications. They also examine the surprise fall in the ADP jobs report, the ISM manufacturing survey, Japan’s Tankan survey and European inflation numbers. Today Australia’s trade numbers will be of most interest.

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Wednesday 1st October 2025

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Not only is it school holidays for a lot of Australia right now, there’s also a week-long national holiday in China. And the US government seems likely to shutdown later today unless there’s a last-minute reprieve. That’s a lot of people not going to work. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the potential impact of the US shutdown and, assuming no payrolls data on Friday, what can we tell about the US labour market from the latest data overnight. They also talk about yesterday’s RBA statement and press conference. Did it support NAB’s case that the RBA won’t cut till May?

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