Tueday 8th July 2025

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President Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs for a handful of countries, closely aligned to the Liberation Day rates. Of those announced Japan and South Kores are front and centre, each subject toa 25% base rate. 30% is being reapplied to South Africa. Although US equities are well down, NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market response was rather tame. Perhaps because the implementation of these new rates doesn’t apply until 1st August. Maybe the rates will change. Meanwhile, locally, the focus is on the NAB Business Survey this morning, the RBA decision later. Markets have fully priced in a 25bp cut.

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Monday 7th July 2025

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The letters go in the post today, apparently, containing the personally selected tariff that will be applied to US trading nations. The good news is that they probably won’t apply until 1st August, giving time for negotiations. Meanwhile, Scott Bessent says the US is aiming to reach a deal with 18 nations. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this all adds to uncertainty and it’s hard to imagine there won’t be volatility in markets this week. There wasn’t much response to the passing of the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, however. Markets have taken it in their stride. There’s likely to be some response to the weekend’s news that OPEC+ are upping production from next month. Ray suggests it’s a move to lower prices and gain market share. Trump’s ‘Drill Baby Drill’ might be a little less viable. Phil and Rya also look at Friday’s Australian Household Spending report and look ahead to this week’s rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ.

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Friday 4th July 2025

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President Trump has fallen in approval ratings since taking office. Does that mean he’ll lose seats in the House or the Senate in the Mid-Terms next year? It’s still a way off, of course, but it would be useful to know whether the President’s policy agenda will continue at pace for a year and a half, or three and a half years.

Dr Debra Leiter is an associate professor with the Department of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. She says there’s an iron law of mid-term loss, where the President’s party invariably sheds support and can lose control of the Senate or the House. But, despite his falling approval ratings, there’s a chance President Trump will buck the trend. Prof. Leiter tells Phil that you get a more accurate view of the outcome if you ask voters who they think will win, not who they will vote for. And, right now, that’s showing a clear victory for the Republicans.

Then what happens? If President Trump manages to maintain control, who follows him into the White House? Will his policies be perpetuated, or will US politics swing back to the centre, or even the far left?

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Friday 4th July 2025

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Markets responded to what seemed like a strong set of payrolls numbers in the US, although the rate of new private jobs fell. Still, the unemployment rate also nudged lower. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what this means for market pricing for Fed cuts this year. The rest of the day’s data from the US were also largely positive, including the ISM Services index, the weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders. Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill passed the House, meeting the deadline and adding to the positive vibes at the end of a shortened week.

Today, Australia’s Household Spending Indicator is released. It’ll be interested to compare its figures with the weakness shown in the Retail Spending data published earlier in the week.

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Thursday 3rd July 2025

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The S&P hit a new high, helped by a post from President Trump saying he has tied up a trade deal with Vietnam. The bad news is that the deal still hits them with tariffs of between 20 and 40%, whilst accepting US goods tariff-free. And the President says a deal with Japan is looking unlikely, but that could be simple ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market reaction to the watered-down UK’s Welfare Reform Bill that could add significantly to the UK deficit and drove bond yields much higher. The US Big Beautiful Bill, meanwhile, is struggling to get through the House of Reps. All eyes are now on jobs, with non-farm payrolls tonight, along with the weekly jobless claims. Markets reacted briefly to a big downside surprise in the ADP jobs numbers, but they are notoriously unreliable.

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Wednesday 2nd July 2025

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President Trump's big, beautiful bill has passed through the Senate with the narrowest of margins and now goes back to the House with a chance that it will get approval by the 4th of July. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the passage of the bill could be partially responsible for the US dollar reaching a multi-year low today given the deficit implications that the bill provides. Rodrigo also discusses with Phil the latest US manufacturing ISM, what's being said at Sintra, New Zealand's latest business opinion survey and looks ahead to today's Australian retail sales numbers.

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Tuesday 1st July 2025

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Canada has caved (the White House’s choice of words) over their digital services tax, so trade talks can resume with the US. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what this means for other countries with the same tax - many countries in Europe, the UK and, yes, Australia too. President Trump has said he sees no reason to extend the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs, and those countries that have not negotiated in good faith will have their rates set by him next week.

Scott Bessent suggested the government had no need to ramp up long term bond sales, even if the Big Beautiful Bill is likely to result in greater bond issuance. European CPI, the Caixin numbers from China and JOLTs for the US will be a focus today, along with a couple of high-powered panels at Sintra.

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Monday 30th June 2025

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There’s a lot of focus on the US this week. The Big Beautiful Bill could reach it’s finish line before Independence Day on Friday. There are reports of progress towards trade deals with the likes of the India and the EU, even if Canada’s deal talks stalled over US objections to their digital services tax. And US payroll numbers are out on Thursday (a day early this time). There’s also the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal. It’s a lot to take in. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks us through it all.

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